peterbirks: (Default)
An interesting problem cropped up on a blog the other day, relating to Triple-Draw.

A number of assumptions are made here to simplify the mathematics (which remain complicated enough). They do not invalidate the conclusion (such as there is one), although one might argue about specific numbers.

This is the scenario. You pick up KQ732 on the button in a 5/10 game. UTG limps, two folds, you limp. SB folds and BB checks. $17 in pot.

Round 1: UTG draws 2, you draw 2, BB draws three. You pick up K7432. UTG checks. You bet. BB folds, UTG calls. $26 in pot.

Round 2: UTG draws 2, you draw 1. You get J7432. UTG checks, you bet, he calls. $46 in pot.

Round 3: UTG draws 1. What do you do?

quite a long follow-on )
So, in answer to the question I set myself, I see my total likelihood of standing pat and betting to a check as 28% of scenarios where my opponent dutifully checks, and 14% of all scenarios where I have the J-7-4-3-2

Now I ought to go through all these percentages, work out the EV, and see how it pans out. Then I ought to see how it varies with different percentages of my opponent betting over checking. Alternatively, I could go and play some cards instead.

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