A Limit question

[peterbirks]

Here's an interesting hand from yesterday.

You have A♠, 4♠, in big blind at $4-$8. Three not-too-bad-not-too-good players limp, followed by a guy in Cut-off who plays every hand. You have also observed that he tends to fold flops that he misses, but always to bet if he is first with the opportunity to do so. If raised, he may slow down on the turn, but if just called, he always bets again. Once again, as far as you have observed, if he is just called, he tends to bet the river again, but your sample size here is small. It's possible that he checks the river if he has missed completely. Since you are unsure about this, let's assign a 50% probability to him betting the river, whatever, and a 50% chance that he will check if he misses the river completely.

Five players see flop. $19 in the pot.

Flop is 4♣, 5♡, 8♠,

giving you bottom pair with Ace kicker. The three limpers check, and our friend bets, as predicted. Calling here is compulsory and raising might be a good idea, to get rid of the players with overcards. As it happens, you elect to call, (a) because you have been doing your bollocks and you are playing like a gun-shy wimp, and (b) you think that the overcard guys are going to come in for two bets if they are going to come in for one. On reflection, I think that a raise is better. But, that's history now and it isn't the interesting part of the equation. As it happens, the three limpers fold. Presumably they give your call more respect than it deserves, since you have a reputation as tight-aggressive.

Two players see turn. $27 in pot

Turn is 4♣, 5♡, 8♠, 10♣,

You check. Opponent bets. The question here is, are you getting odds to beat a random hand with your bottom pair. top kicker?

Let's suppose you call.

Two players see river. $42 in pot.

The river brings 4♣, 5♡, 8♠, 10♣, Q♣.

Opponent bets again. Do you have odds to call (a) a completely random hand? (b) a random hand where he will only bet 50% of the time if he has missed completely? (c) a "very loose" player's hand where he will only bet 50% of the time if he misses completely?

Comments

Your Play of the Hand

[(Anonymous)]

Hi Peter,

On that hand if a straight were not already possible then I would take a card off on the flop for 1 bet, to pick up trips, 2 pair or a backdoor flush draw. But even in that case, the problem on the flop is that your call of his bet doesn't close the action and someone noticing the same tendencies in the CO may now checkraise. Plus although someone won't have flopped a straight more times than they would have, there still can fall cards on the river if you hit a card on the turn you like that make a straight especially if more than you 2 had stayed on the flop. As played, when you didn't help on the turn, I would have folded. In fact if he isn't actually a calling station, then checkraising is better than calling to try to take control of the hand and induce a fold then or on the river if he doesn't have much. And on the river as played, all you can beat is a bluff. Indeed again, just betting out as a bluff yourself is preferable to check/calling.

I would also make the general comments that playing looser postflop should generally be done in position, and also that against a player like your opponent here, you lose even in position the value of being able to see a checked river by calling on the turn since you know he will just keep betting until he meets a raise.

BluffTHIS!