Maggi in May

Those who know me might be aware of my predilection for Maggi seasoning. The curious thing is that this flavouring, virtually ubiquitous in parts of Switzerland and available for two quid a giant bottle in Wall-Mart, Hamburg, is very difficult to get hold of in the UK — particularly the large bottles.

Anyway, as is the way with synchronicity, two events this week occurred which related to my love of this stuff.

1) DISASTER: The only place where I had been able to find the large bottles of Maggi in all of London was a Chinese shop in Lisle Street (the marvellous road that runs parallel to Gerrard Street in Chinatown, and which has much better Chinese restaurants, although these days Wardour Street has some tasty places as well). And when I went there on Monday, they had gone! What to do, what to do. A hunt around the rest of Chinatown seems the only possibility.

2) JUSTIFICATION! I had always assumed that my love of Maggi was related to an addiction to monosodium glutamate, but it appears that I was wrong. MSG does come into the equation, but only in the sense that this is the most concentrated provider of the "fifth sense" of taste: sweet, sour, bitter, salty and, umami. Yes, umami. The Food Programme on Radio Four yesterday also revealed a couple of other foods that naturally produce the umami taste — anchovies and parmesan cheese. I suspect that some very mature cheddars and cheshires have it as well -- that "explosion in the mouth". Whatever, these are also foods that I have always loved, without knowing why. What's the betting that Marmite is up there with it as well?

Cheered me up no end. I'm not a junkie, but an epicure.

Some Triple Draw thoughts

The only game that I could find last night to wile away half an hour or so at TD was 10c-25c ace-to-five. Now, mathematically Ace-to-Five is no different from deuce-to-seven (see the Negreanu equivalence table for proof of this), but what you do not do is just move everything down a digit. So, although it's the same, it feels different.

No matter -- this time I managed to keep my loss down to 60 cents, although I suspect that this was partly down to the fact that at this level even I can spot flaws in some opponents' plays. And it was nice to have a full 6-handed table.

Anyway, I've just put some thoughts on paper about the game. Let's take the principle that a winning strategy in short-handed Hold 'em is to raise 18% of the time, to see about 30% of flops and to win 40%-plus of the flops that you see.

Therefore if we get the same figures on average in TD lowball, we should be a winner. Therefore:

Question One: what kind of hands will I call/raise with to match that percentage?

Clearly position is much more important in TD, because knowing what your opponent is drawing can affect what you do. So a hand that you would dump in the SB or UTG becomes a raising hand on the button. therefore we need to shift the percentage of raises and flops seen downwards quite drastically for SB and UTG, and upwards quite drastically for CO2 and on the button. However, the percentage of hands won when flops are seen should remain the same for all positions (ignoring the BB anomaly when you occasionally get to see a card for free).

I ran an Excel spreadsheet to look for the midpoint 30% of hands (deuce-to-seven) which basically brought you down to 2-card draws to a seven, 1-card draws to a smooth 8 or better, and pat hands up to a smooth 87. Clearly you would have to be stricter when UTG, while you could be significantly looser when on the button.

Now, what ones are raisers? This is tough. Pat hands to a smooth 8 or better, single draws to any seven?

Once again, these move up and down significantly depending on position.

Question Two: What am I aiming for?
Once again, this will change as the hand goes on, depending on your opponents' draws, but I reckon a smooth 8 is a nice target. With a good 2-card draw you have a nice chance of hitting at least some kind of 8 by the end (about 40%, I reckon). With a 1-card draw you are either nearly 50% or nearly 75%, depending on whether your hand contains a straight draw (beware of these hands!). You are still 33%/50% with 2 cards to come.

Question Three: How often will an opponent have a genuine pat 8 or better?

I reckon that in a full six-handed game, an eight-low or better will be out about one hand in 14. I am going to check this empirically.

I have come to some tentative conclusions:

1) Although you can draw to a rough seven, you shouldn't ever draw to a rough 8.
2) Nines are calling hands at the end (when a nine is your last card), but should never be targets.
3) Try always raising with up to a smooth 8 or better, but play limp with the other pat hands when OOP. Don't let anyone force you into breaking, ever.

Some PLO humour

OK, here’s an Omaha hand that went right. After two hours of misery at limit, where I had gone from $110 up after 15 minutes to $55 down after two hours, with two loose-passive fish to my right, I wasn’t in the best of moods. I put myself down for the triple draw, but the six who were playing seemed set for the long haul, so I ambled over to the Omaha.

There was an empty seat at a game with some clear lovers of raises pre-flop (both of whom had more than the $50 max buy-in). Hmm, I thought to myself. I see potential for death or glory here.

Well, not much happened. I was pleased with my fold of top set on the turn when I knew the player on my right was betting with a straight, and I wasn’t getting pot odds (and he would have folded if the board had paired). And, generally, the right situation hadn’t arisen.

Now, how about this for proof of BDD’s principle that the game is about big decisions and, when you do speak, speak loudly?


(Pot Limit Omaha)
Powered by UltimateBet

ImaHotone is at seat 2 with $41.90.
Birks is at seat 3 with $45.20.
Asmodeus1 is at seat 5 with $14.75.
Tghtgrl is at seat 6 with $52.35.
nivek22 is at seat 7 with $102.45.
The button is at seat 0.

Provee posts the small blind of $.25.
ImaHotone posts the big blind of $.50.

Birks: Qs Ah 7h 2s

Birks calls. fallout112d folds. Asmodeus1 calls. Tghtgrl raises to $2.75. nivek22 calls. fitter565 folds. Flushola52 folds. Provee folds. ImaHotone calls. Birks calls. Asmodeus1 calls.

I wondered about this call, particularly since I anticipate a raise behind, but, hell, I can stand a raise if I am getting a number of other callers.

Flop: 2h 7s 6h

OK, I have top and bottom pair and a draw to the nut flush. But, more importantly, what can my opponents have? Trip sixes? A worse flush draw (I also have the Qx of spades as a marginal backdoor)? Or, most likely, a straight draw.

ImaHotone bets $2.50. Birks calls. Asmodeus1 folds. Tghtgrl folds. nivek22 raises to $24. ImaHotone goes all-in for $39.15. Birks goes all-in for $42.45. nivek22 calls.

Well, there’s a bit of speaking loudly when it matters. Before you click on the continuation below, have a guess what my equity is in this pot....
( Read more... )