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A tough six months online
Jun. 30th, 2011 09:06 pmWell, it's been a tough six months on the felt in more than one way. Yesterday's immediate closure of Full Tilt because Alderney cancelled its licence (thus prpving, at least, that the licensing does have some relevance) has hurt a number of players in the UK -- not least Clarkatroid, who said on 2_2 that he had $65k in there and that he was feeling "pretty stupid".
It took me a few months to realize it, but it was clear by May that the extra rakeback generated by huge throughput (i.e., cascading tables) did not counterbalance the loss expectation from actual play. Secondly, the games got much tougher; I felt that I was running a bit badly, and I also thought there was some bits-and-bobs collusion on Party. All of these things combined to put me into the red for the six months.
Which, at first glance, would have one saying "It's all over; jack it in. Now."
However, the month-by-month records indicate that my strategy in June -- copied from three years ago, with slight adaptations, might be enough to get me back into the black, albeit not at levels of 2009 or early 2010.
(Slight difference in hand numbers is because one table includes today and the other doesn't.)
The positive result in March is deceptive, boosted by my $1,500 Pokerstars rakeback for 100,000 FPPs. In fact it was only in June that I got "cash positive" in open play. Note the lower number of hands. Admittedly I was away for a few days in Bermuda, but I also cut down on my playing hours, cut down on open tables (admittedly still 8-tabling on Stars and 6-tabling on Party) and played at no higher than $50 NL. That seemed to do the trick, although it's an indication of how much tougher the games have got.
Secondly, the figures for Party are awful. That site has been my big winner over the years, and it's hard to believe that the opposition has got THAT much tougher. But it's got tougher to a degree, and I think I've run a bit bad this year while for the previous few years I had run a bit well. And I think at times the Russians are colluding. When all three are added together, you get a shit half-year.
So, for the rest of the year, more $50 NL until I get back to even, and then perhaps a venture back to higher levels. But definitely no cascading, and no chasing Supernova or Palladium on Stars or Party. It's a big mistake to do so.
__
It took me a few months to realize it, but it was clear by May that the extra rakeback generated by huge throughput (i.e., cascading tables) did not counterbalance the loss expectation from actual play. Secondly, the games got much tougher; I felt that I was running a bit badly, and I also thought there was some bits-and-bobs collusion on Party. All of these things combined to put me into the red for the six months.
| SITE | DATA | $100 NL | RAKEBACK | $50 NL | $200 NL | BONUS | Tournaments | $400 NL | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTY | Sum of WIN (LOSS) | ($1,324) | $450 | ($1,005) | ($278) | $218 | $21 | ($58) | ($1,976) |
| --- | SUM OF HANDS | 43,265 | --- | 17,294 | 4,766 | --- | 200 | 144 | 65,669 |
| FULL TILT | SUM OF WIN | ($1,022) | $327 | $22 | --- | $375 | --- | --- | ($299) |
| --- | SUM OF HANDS | 18,357 | --- | 1,664 | --- | --- | --- | ---- | 20,021 |
| POKERSTARS | SUM OF WIN(LOSS) | ($1,742) | $1,800 | $55 | ($12) | $360 | $551 | --- | $1,012 |
| --- | SUM OF HANDS | 79,379 | --- | 32,813 | 413 | --- | 6,650 | --- | 119,254 |
| --- | TOTAL WIN (LOSS) | ($4,088) | $2,577 | ($928) | ($290) | $953 | $572 | ($58) | ($1,263) |
| --- | TOTAL HANDS | 141,001 | --- | 51,771 | 5,178 | --- | 6,850 | 144 | 204,994 |
Which, at first glance, would have one saying "It's all over; jack it in. Now."
However, the month-by-month records indicate that my strategy in June -- copied from three years ago, with slight adaptations, might be enough to get me back into the black, albeit not at levels of 2009 or early 2010.
| January | February | March | April | May | June | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($532) | ($934) | $1,126 | ($368) | ($962) | $420 | ($1,250) |
| 44,012 | 44,178 | 28,773 | 22,310 | 45,892 | 20,030 | 205,195 |
(Slight difference in hand numbers is because one table includes today and the other doesn't.)
The positive result in March is deceptive, boosted by my $1,500 Pokerstars rakeback for 100,000 FPPs. In fact it was only in June that I got "cash positive" in open play. Note the lower number of hands. Admittedly I was away for a few days in Bermuda, but I also cut down on my playing hours, cut down on open tables (admittedly still 8-tabling on Stars and 6-tabling on Party) and played at no higher than $50 NL. That seemed to do the trick, although it's an indication of how much tougher the games have got.
Secondly, the figures for Party are awful. That site has been my big winner over the years, and it's hard to believe that the opposition has got THAT much tougher. But it's got tougher to a degree, and I think I've run a bit bad this year while for the previous few years I had run a bit well. And I think at times the Russians are colluding. When all three are added together, you get a shit half-year.
So, for the rest of the year, more $50 NL until I get back to even, and then perhaps a venture back to higher levels. But definitely no cascading, and no chasing Supernova or Palladium on Stars or Party. It's a big mistake to do so.
__
