Thoughts on a General Election, week 0

 One of the little secrets I had up my sleeve for the forthcoming election was my discovery when compiling my spreadsheet (still some tweaks required to allow for retiring MPs) that, far from The Brexit Party being a threat to the Conservatives, it was Labour that had most to fear.

That secret now appears to be out of the bag. The Brexit Party clearly ran the numbers through a spreadsheet not dissimilar to mine, and came to the same conclusion.

Basically, although TBP might have cost the Conservatives some seats, its only chance of *winning* seats was off Labour.

Should it decided to stand in onlty 20 seats, these are the ones I think it might choose:

Barnsley East

Barnsley Central*

Bolton South East*

Burnley*

Dagenham and Rainham

Doncaster North

Hartlepool*

Hemsworth

Heywood and Middleton

Kingston Upon Hull East

Leigh

Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford

Penistone and Stockbridge

Rother Valley*

Rotherham*

Sheffield South East

South Shields

Washington and Sunderland West

West Bromwich West

The seats I have marked with an asterisk strike me as their seven best chances.

All of the seats are Labour seats. I see no hope whatsoever of any Conservative seat going to the Brexit Party, with the *possible* exception of Thurrock, an old UKIP hunting ground. But I suspect that 2017 might have been peak UKIP there, one of the few seats in which it was not utterly humiliated in 2017.

The markets seem to be predicting that there will be no breakthrough and that TBP will go away empty handed. I'm agnostic on this at the moment. I think it could be very campaign dependent.

Only four bets by me so far, all modest. Lab to win fewer than 225.5, LibDems to win more than 36.5, SNP to win fewer than 51.5 (I can't see them getting more than 50).

All those bets are at slight odds on.

Also, one single seat bet (most markets there not yet available) Conservatives to win Ashfield.

One fundamental mistake that the BBC makes every election is to focus on seats that were very tight marginals last time. usually, of course, if there is any swing at all, those seats are of little interest, as the marginal last time tends not to be a marginal this time.

This year there is an interesting exception -- Kensington. A majority of 20 for Labour last time. Both Lab and LibDem are remainers, but the Lab candidate has the hurdle of her party being ambivalent at a national level (see threat of Brexit Party, above). I suspect that this will cost them more seats in New Urban public sector/metropolitan elite/young Labour London than it will in the Old (and elderly) Labour Leave ex industrial heartlands.

Now, Kensington is interesting because it is massivley Remain (68.8%). The Conservative candidate is reportedly in favour of the Deal, but not on the hard line of the party when it comes to leaving.

If my projection of the way this election will pan out over the next few weeks is even roughly correct, we are set for a big LibDem surge in London. That could turn Kensington from a two-way marginal into a three-way marginal. So much so that I won't be putting any of my money on any of the candidates.