ext_190175 ([identity profile] real-aardvark.livejournal.com) wrote in [personal profile] peterbirks 2010-03-14 06:36 pm (UTC)

Timeo Danaos, revisited

I could be sarky and point out that Greece has democratic traditions dating back twenty five centuries or so (and don't try quoting Sparta back at me). I could be even sarkier and point out that fifth century Athens was quite keen on strong leaders (Solon, Pericles, etc).

But, essentially, you are absolutely correct in your premise. I'd argue that you're wrong in your one-size-fits-all analysis (Greece is most definitely not equivalent to Latin America), and I'd argue that Greece is more likely to descend into anarchy rather than dictatorship, but perhaps that's besides the point.

There are two points here that I feel should be made, specific to the subject under discussion:

(1) A large part of the problem in Greece is due to the swollen and entirely non-transparent military budget. (And yes, I'm well aware of the fact that this was part of the deal to get rid of the Colonels. It's been thirty years. Thirty years is a long time in geopolitical history.) I don't care whether they default or not. This problem has to be addressed and fixed, asap. I have yet to see any EU musings on this point.
(2) Assuming your analysis, and assuming that the tenth member state descends into military/fascist dictatorship, what on earth are the EU and the ECB going to do about that? I look forwards to the German Constitutional Court explaining that one away. "We have both kinds of government here -- democracy, and dictatorship!"

There's actually a third point, to do with your/William's link. If, let's say, 50% of Greek sovereign debt is owned by French and German citizens and/or fundholders, it doesn't really make a lot of sense, either to Sarkozy or to Merkel, to let the bloody place slide into default.

There are no easy answers. There may, indeed, be no answers. But, as you say, it's about time hoi en telei started asking the correct questions.

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