Oh, and London property? See free blag (http://drloser.blog.co.uk/2011/01/15/forever-sucking-bubbles-a12-vinyl-collectors-edition-10371248/) to my blog here. In fact, UK property "assets" are still massively overvalued -- and I include the house I live in -- but the lunatics clinging on by their fingernails and trying to sell London property are almost beyond delusional.
It's possible, I'll grant you. The Japanese bought Pebble Bay at some outrageous price in the mid '80s, and they were in precisely the same macro-economic/trade surplus position that China is in now.
On the other hand, Pebble Bay is a damn fine golf course. And, famously, yer aspirational Japanese executive would have thought nothing of stumping up $1 million a year just to sign on to a country club that allowed him to hit a three-iron off a skyscraper in downtown Kyoto.
I don't think this is actually the way things will proceed, vis-a-vis PRC asset purchases in the West.
Recent PRC global asset purchases suggest that value rather than dividend is their main aim. Unless another bunch of loony oligarchs comes along and needs a safe haven in London, I don't really think the property market stands up on those terms.
If I were the PRC? Hmm. I'd buy into Australia. I'd think hard about South America. If there's a quiet way in, then Alberta and Manitoba and Saskatchewan and even British Columbia are looking good.
In Europe, I'd go for distressed bits of ex-East Germany on the way up. Oddly enough, I'd buy as much of Croatia and Slovenia as I'm allowed to buy. Assuming I'm prepared to piss the Russians off, I'd buy all three of the Baltics; and failing that, I'd pour shit-loads of money into Poland and the Ukraine in return for food concessions ... no, not the ones you see at baseball games ...
I'd pick off the wrinkly old chateaux and so on from distressed owners who relied on leveraging their bonuses from McKinseys or whatever to start a new life in the country.
Basically, I'd take advantage of the fact that anybody with money to throw around over the last ten years has been a total fucking idiot, and I'd buy their assets at pennies on the pound, and in the case of (say) emerging economies like Brasil, I'd have no opposition worth worrying about.
The very last thing I'd do is buy overpriced shit in Kensington. Lovely, I'm sure, but hardly worth it until it crashes a further 50% or so on the grounds that there are no buyers other than the Chinese, and the PRC ain't gonna let a random Chinese plutocrat jump in first.
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Re: At The Risk Of Being Seriously Annoying ...
Date: 2011-01-15 09:14 pm (UTC)It's possible, I'll grant you. The Japanese bought Pebble Bay at some outrageous price in the mid '80s, and they were in precisely the same macro-economic/trade surplus position that China is in now.
On the other hand, Pebble Bay is a damn fine golf course. And, famously, yer aspirational Japanese executive would have thought nothing of stumping up $1 million a year just to sign on to a country club that allowed him to hit a three-iron off a skyscraper in downtown Kyoto.
I don't think this is actually the way things will proceed, vis-a-vis PRC asset purchases in the West.
Recent PRC global asset purchases suggest that value rather than dividend is their main aim. Unless another bunch of loony oligarchs comes along and needs a safe haven in London, I don't really think the property market stands up on those terms.
If I were the PRC? Hmm. I'd buy into Australia. I'd think hard about South America. If there's a quiet way in, then Alberta and Manitoba and Saskatchewan and even British Columbia are looking good.
In Europe, I'd go for distressed bits of ex-East Germany on the way up. Oddly enough, I'd buy as much of Croatia and Slovenia as I'm allowed to buy. Assuming I'm prepared to piss the Russians off, I'd buy all three of the Baltics; and failing that, I'd pour shit-loads of money into Poland and the Ukraine in return for food concessions ... no, not the ones you see at baseball games ...
I'd pick off the wrinkly old chateaux and so on from distressed owners who relied on leveraging their bonuses from McKinseys or whatever to start a new life in the country.
Basically, I'd take advantage of the fact that anybody with money to throw around over the last ten years has been a total fucking idiot, and I'd buy their assets at pennies on the pound, and in the case of (say) emerging economies like Brasil, I'd have no opposition worth worrying about.
The very last thing I'd do is buy overpriced shit in Kensington. Lovely, I'm sure, but hardly worth it until it crashes a further 50% or so on the grounds that there are no buyers other than the Chinese, and the PRC ain't gonna let a random Chinese plutocrat jump in first.