Date: 2005-10-09 03:12 pm (UTC)
On the raise with the 95o. Well, it's really a matter of "we can only play with the cards we are dealt". To be honest, the cards I have here are less relevant (to me) than who is in the blinds. If I get a lumpy reraise behind me, I can fold. If I don't, then the players in the blinds will fold unless they have monsters.

OK, I've been looked up, so now all I have to do is find a real hand (because I can be fairly sure that I will be called when I get it). Unfortunately, that particular bus was cancelled.

On the failure to fold the A8s. Yes, I probably should walk away. I have about three rounds worth of blinds left. Within a couple of hands I will be down to 7x the SB rather than 10x the SB. But I still have 20 minutes worth of play.

My reasons were twofold - one psychological and incoreect, the other mathematical and correct (well, less incorrect).

After an hour of garbage, A8s almost looks like a monster. 300 of my 1950 chips are already in there. I became emotionally attached to my hand. Bad play.

On the mitigating side, m'lud, I made the play because I thought (perhaps incorrectly), that I had a 50% chance (or thereabouts), of being in front, or, rather, of winning the hand. Opponent could have, say, any pair 4s or better, any two paints, any Ax suited or AJ off to AK off.

In retrospect, this analysis may well be incorrect, but it was what I felt at the time.

When I was playing online tourneys a few years ago, one of my notes to myself was frequently "don't worry about being worn down to the felt if the cards don't come". Perhaps I should revist that motto.

PJ
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