peterbirks (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
peterbirks) wrote2005-11-30 07:37 am
peterbirks) wrote2005-11-30 07:37 am
Numbers Up
On "Lost" tonight, we learn about Harley, the fat guy. It transpires that he won the lottery, but suffered all sorts of other bad luck. When this episode was shown in the US (and it is quite a good episode) many thousands of people used those numbers the next time they played the lottery.
I mean, now, how stupid is that? I suppose that you have to allow for the fact that the average week-in, week-out player of the lottery is going to score lower on the intelligence equivalent of the Saffir-Simpson Scale (say "a mild breeze") than the general populus. But, what is going through their heads? Do they think that no-one else watches the programme, that the TV is talking to them, personally? Are they unaware that, should by some miracle the numbers come up, they are likely to win the grand sum of a tenner, despite hitting a 13 million-to-one shot?
+++++
Speaking of stictch-ups, the Gutshot "it could be YOU!!!" WSOP satellite has shifted more towards "it might be you, but we're doing our best to make sure it isn't". If you get through the cheapo satellite to the £200 big one, you suddenly find yourself playing a freeze-out, while everyone else is playing a rebuy tournament.
As it happens, the popular view that this is an unfair disadvantage is wrong. Provided you allow for the changes in the way other people play, and provided you do not go into survivalist mode from the off, your EV is actually higher. The common moan is "other players with deep pockets can take risks, but I have to fold". Well, no, you don't (have to fold). You can call. "But if I call and lose, I'm out!" So, enter another satellite. Because if you don't call, you are even more certain to lose. It will just take a little longer.
Oh hell, we've been here before. Perhaps I'll write my long "How to make a profit in rebuy tournaments by playing cards properly" piece one day. The clue comes, once again from the cash game. As Mike Caro wrote. "I have a perfect strategy to maximise the number of pots you win. Just play every hand, right to the end."
Now, apply that to rebuys. I have a perfect strategy to maximise your number of rebuy tournament wins. Just go all-in on every hand before the end of the rebuy period.
Alternatively, you can maximize your profit by playing properly, adapting to other players' different styles in the rebuy period (e.g., assume that you are at a table of maniacs for an hour, and then assume that you are at a table of rocks) but sticking to correct play.
There are published books out there that say "during the rebuy period you can afford to take those 60:40 shots, but when the rebuys end, you can't" and that you "don't play unless you can afford to rebuy twice".
It's all bollocks. One £50 tourney with two rebuys, or three £50 tourneys on separate nights? No difference in positive EV, provided you play correctly according to the circumstances.
I mean, now, how stupid is that? I suppose that you have to allow for the fact that the average week-in, week-out player of the lottery is going to score lower on the intelligence equivalent of the Saffir-Simpson Scale (say "a mild breeze") than the general populus. But, what is going through their heads? Do they think that no-one else watches the programme, that the TV is talking to them, personally? Are they unaware that, should by some miracle the numbers come up, they are likely to win the grand sum of a tenner, despite hitting a 13 million-to-one shot?
+++++
Speaking of stictch-ups, the Gutshot "it could be YOU!!!" WSOP satellite has shifted more towards "it might be you, but we're doing our best to make sure it isn't". If you get through the cheapo satellite to the £200 big one, you suddenly find yourself playing a freeze-out, while everyone else is playing a rebuy tournament.
As it happens, the popular view that this is an unfair disadvantage is wrong. Provided you allow for the changes in the way other people play, and provided you do not go into survivalist mode from the off, your EV is actually higher. The common moan is "other players with deep pockets can take risks, but I have to fold". Well, no, you don't (have to fold). You can call. "But if I call and lose, I'm out!" So, enter another satellite. Because if you don't call, you are even more certain to lose. It will just take a little longer.
Oh hell, we've been here before. Perhaps I'll write my long "How to make a profit in rebuy tournaments by playing cards properly" piece one day. The clue comes, once again from the cash game. As Mike Caro wrote. "I have a perfect strategy to maximise the number of pots you win. Just play every hand, right to the end."
Now, apply that to rebuys. I have a perfect strategy to maximise your number of rebuy tournament wins. Just go all-in on every hand before the end of the rebuy period.
Alternatively, you can maximize your profit by playing properly, adapting to other players' different styles in the rebuy period (e.g., assume that you are at a table of maniacs for an hour, and then assume that you are at a table of rocks) but sticking to correct play.
There are published books out there that say "during the rebuy period you can afford to take those 60:40 shots, but when the rebuys end, you can't" and that you "don't play unless you can afford to rebuy twice".
It's all bollocks. One £50 tourney with two rebuys, or three £50 tourneys on separate nights? No difference in positive EV, provided you play correctly according to the circumstances.
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(no subject)
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http://www.lotto.ie/prizes_results/prizes.asp?date=26/11/05&draw_date=Nov+19+2005
(The actual numbers are 4 8 15 16 23 42)
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(Anonymous) 2005-11-30 03:11 pm (UTC)(link)chaos
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(Anonymous) 2005-11-30 06:30 pm (UTC)(link)gl
dd
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(Anonymous) 2005-11-30 08:25 pm (UTC)(link)One non-technical argument to bear in mind is that if your advice assumes a rational model of the human mind, then it has a good chance of being wrong. In this case if your population will make more irrational errors when in a freezeout scenario, then you'd do well to advise them to have rebuys on hand, even if it makes no difference to the EV of the rationally minded. It is perhaps best/easier to put effort into optimising/managing our irrationalties than making them rational.
(no subject)
(Anonymous) - 2005-11-30 20:25 (UTC) - ExpandLOST
Rationality
Re: Rationality
(Anonymous) - 2005-12-01 10:53 (UTC) - ExpandRe: Rationality
Re: Rationality
(Anonymous) - 2005-12-01 15:08 (UTC) - Expandvegas lhe games
(Anonymous) 2005-12-01 01:16 am (UTC)(link)i see you're planning to play the 15-30 game at the bellagio.
i'd actually recommend the 8-16 game there, which i found very soft on 2 of my last 3 visits in the last 18 months.
by way of contradiction i did about $300 in 1 hr in the 15-30 (not a very large sample, i know).
also, the 8-16 game was very friendly.
also the playing styles are v str8fwd ie undeceptive.
a friend of mine who does very well online at lhe lost in the 15-30 game.
some of the 15-30 games are crazy wild loose.
your playing style and mine and that of my friend are quite similar ie tight.
don't want to put you in a negative mind-set if that's the game you're gonna play, but just my 2p worth.
good luck and have a good time, and don't play too much.
j davey
Re: vegas lhe games