Numbers Up
Nov. 30th, 2005 07:37 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksOn "Lost" tonight, we learn about Harley, the fat guy. It transpires that he won the lottery, but suffered all sorts of other bad luck. When this episode was shown in the US (and it is quite a good episode) many thousands of people used those numbers the next time they played the lottery.
I mean, now, how stupid is that? I suppose that you have to allow for the fact that the average week-in, week-out player of the lottery is going to score lower on the intelligence equivalent of the Saffir-Simpson Scale (say "a mild breeze") than the general populus. But, what is going through their heads? Do they think that no-one else watches the programme, that the TV is talking to them, personally? Are they unaware that, should by some miracle the numbers come up, they are likely to win the grand sum of a tenner, despite hitting a 13 million-to-one shot?
+++++
Speaking of stictch-ups, the Gutshot "it could be YOU!!!" WSOP satellite has shifted more towards "it might be you, but we're doing our best to make sure it isn't". If you get through the cheapo satellite to the £200 big one, you suddenly find yourself playing a freeze-out, while everyone else is playing a rebuy tournament.
As it happens, the popular view that this is an unfair disadvantage is wrong. Provided you allow for the changes in the way other people play, and provided you do not go into survivalist mode from the off, your EV is actually higher. The common moan is "other players with deep pockets can take risks, but I have to fold". Well, no, you don't (have to fold). You can call. "But if I call and lose, I'm out!" So, enter another satellite. Because if you don't call, you are even more certain to lose. It will just take a little longer.
Oh hell, we've been here before. Perhaps I'll write my long "How to make a profit in rebuy tournaments by playing cards properly" piece one day. The clue comes, once again from the cash game. As Mike Caro wrote. "I have a perfect strategy to maximise the number of pots you win. Just play every hand, right to the end."
Now, apply that to rebuys. I have a perfect strategy to maximise your number of rebuy tournament wins. Just go all-in on every hand before the end of the rebuy period.
Alternatively, you can maximize your profit by playing properly, adapting to other players' different styles in the rebuy period (e.g., assume that you are at a table of maniacs for an hour, and then assume that you are at a table of rocks) but sticking to correct play.
There are published books out there that say "during the rebuy period you can afford to take those 60:40 shots, but when the rebuys end, you can't" and that you "don't play unless you can afford to rebuy twice".
It's all bollocks. One £50 tourney with two rebuys, or three £50 tourneys on separate nights? No difference in positive EV, provided you play correctly according to the circumstances.
I mean, now, how stupid is that? I suppose that you have to allow for the fact that the average week-in, week-out player of the lottery is going to score lower on the intelligence equivalent of the Saffir-Simpson Scale (say "a mild breeze") than the general populus. But, what is going through their heads? Do they think that no-one else watches the programme, that the TV is talking to them, personally? Are they unaware that, should by some miracle the numbers come up, they are likely to win the grand sum of a tenner, despite hitting a 13 million-to-one shot?
+++++
Speaking of stictch-ups, the Gutshot "it could be YOU!!!" WSOP satellite has shifted more towards "it might be you, but we're doing our best to make sure it isn't". If you get through the cheapo satellite to the £200 big one, you suddenly find yourself playing a freeze-out, while everyone else is playing a rebuy tournament.
As it happens, the popular view that this is an unfair disadvantage is wrong. Provided you allow for the changes in the way other people play, and provided you do not go into survivalist mode from the off, your EV is actually higher. The common moan is "other players with deep pockets can take risks, but I have to fold". Well, no, you don't (have to fold). You can call. "But if I call and lose, I'm out!" So, enter another satellite. Because if you don't call, you are even more certain to lose. It will just take a little longer.
Oh hell, we've been here before. Perhaps I'll write my long "How to make a profit in rebuy tournaments by playing cards properly" piece one day. The clue comes, once again from the cash game. As Mike Caro wrote. "I have a perfect strategy to maximise the number of pots you win. Just play every hand, right to the end."
Now, apply that to rebuys. I have a perfect strategy to maximise your number of rebuy tournament wins. Just go all-in on every hand before the end of the rebuy period.
Alternatively, you can maximize your profit by playing properly, adapting to other players' different styles in the rebuy period (e.g., assume that you are at a table of maniacs for an hour, and then assume that you are at a table of rocks) but sticking to correct play.
There are published books out there that say "during the rebuy period you can afford to take those 60:40 shots, but when the rebuys end, you can't" and that you "don't play unless you can afford to rebuy twice".
It's all bollocks. One £50 tourney with two rebuys, or three £50 tourneys on separate nights? No difference in positive EV, provided you play correctly according to the circumstances.
Re: Rationality
Date: 2005-12-01 10:53 am (UTC)My view on rebuy tourneys is not connected to today's conditions at all, but rather those that existed back in 90's when I used to play them. If anything it was more effective then, as bullying was more likely to succeed, and fields were smaller. Another significant reason why big stacks are best, which is hard to measure, is simply that it gives you room to be unlucky, or make a mistake. Lastly, I would add that the big stack strange attractor may play a part (tip of hat to chaos.)
Back when I played, and won, those things on a regular basis, the most successful players were clearly those who played loose in the rebuy period. Interstingly I was known as the "white Ali Mallu" :)
gl
dd
Re: Rationality
Date: 2005-12-01 11:49 am (UTC)Clearly if you have a loose strategy during the rebuy tournaments then you are going to get into the prize money more often than a player who plays his normal game and then goes home without rebuying, or than the player who plays his normal game, but who is willing to rebuy.
Let's take average entry fee for LP as 3, average entry fee for NP as 1.5 and average entry fee for TA as 1.
That means that NP can enter twice as many tournaments as LP, while TA can enter 3 times as many tournaments, for the same buy-in. Put another way, it means that LP can get unlucky once and survive in the first tournament, but TA is playing in three tournaments. He is out if he is unlucky in tournament A, but he has two more tournaments "for his money". He has three shots. If LP gets unlucky THREE times, he is likely to be out. And he is no more likely to be unlucky three times in one tournament than TA is likely to be unlucky three (separate) times in three (separate) tournaments.
The undeniable strength of the big stack (particularly in the old days) was the fold equity you got for your bets. I think that the "it means that you can be unlucky" line is counterbalanced by the increased average entry fee that you are paying.
Re: Rationality
Date: 2005-12-01 03:08 pm (UTC)When all the prize money is heavily skewed to the top few places - and back in the day, that was the *entire* of the prize money in most comps - then being able to have a crack at this serious money is the whole of the game. A tight rebuy strategy normally means that you normally enter the second stage of the tournement with a much smaller stack and not only do you have less resilience, but also you would need to be luckier to get into contention.
Another factor was that fields were so much smaller - 100+ players was a big comp - that coming out of the rebuy stage with a big stack meant that you were often in shooting distance of the final two tables already.
Back in the midd to late 90s I played small comps all over the UK. I wouldnt be exaggerating to say that 90% of the most successful ones were very loose in the rebuy stage.
cheers
Dave