Everything Has A Limit

Well, I still need to do the ironing, I think that it might be an idea to have a nap, I want to watch the cricket, some shelves need painting and I've got four articles to write plus about 5,000 words of the "big project". On top of that, I definitely chose the wrong day to go to the cricket (or, rather, the insurance company chose the wrong day to invite me). Not only would I have seen 8 wickets fall in a morning and a bit, but I would also have been in the spot where they had the Channel 4 Roundtable luncheon, which would have allowed me to ask Richie some really tough questions, like "how many fingers am I holding up"?

Today's Richie's classic wasn't exactly wrong, but it was something along the lines of an accountant's explanation. accurate, but uninforming. "It's virtually a one-innings match", he said, as the England operners came out to bat. Hmm, well, with England having a first-innings lead of six, and there being five sessions to go, one could hardly call this sparkling insight.

I've laid the draw at 1.6 down to 1.5, and half-an-hour ago backed England to win 1t 16/1 -- a price I consider farcical. I think that if we get another three sessions, we could well have a result on this pitch, and if England get a lead of around 150, they will know that bowling for a draw won't be an option. So they will have to go for the win. As scenarios go, I think that's a reasonable 6% shot.

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Managed to pick up $60 in an hour on Stars this morning in a very odd mini-session. Got nothing for an hour, was $50 down, and then got KK, KK, QQ and 99 in the space of two rounds. All bar the QQ won. Good.

Then after going out on the bubble in the Betfair tourney (watching the cricket in the front room), I twitched onto the PLO.

The Betfair bubble elimination in sixth was a standard one. Several players had survived 50-50s and the chips were very close considering the levels of the blinds. By losing one hand that did not go beyond the flop I went from 10,000 chips (first) to 6,000 chips (fifth). After no cards for six hands, I was down to 4,200 and picked up AJo in the big blind. Button raises 800 to 1,600 (antes of 100 as well) and I flat call, intending to put in the rest of my money on any flop. Board comes A94 rainbow. I go all-in. He calls, I think. Goodie, and he promptly shows Ace-Nine. And even then I had a flush draw on the river, but missed. Bollox.

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All made up for in the PLO, where I seemed to get AA remarkably often. The Ultimate Hand Histories are incredibly irritating, in that they disappear if you close the game window. Therefore I lost the most entertaining. I was already $70 up after ritually destroying the poor small-stack guy on my left (he was on his fourth rebuy by the time this happened.

I pick up Ad 9d Ac 7h in MP3 with $120 in front of me. There is a poster behind me. Folded to the player on my right, who has $37. He limps for 50c. I raise $2.25. Poster folds, and SB (with only $12 in front of him) wakes up with a raise to $7. Player on my right calls. This allows me to reraise $29, which I promptly do. SB calls automatically for his last five bucks and the original limper is in a bit of a pickle. He humms and hahhs and folds, so I get $24 returned. I'm not quite sure if I want him to call or fold here. I do know that he could have virtually anything.

Small stack all in shows Kh 8h Ks 8s and hits his heart flush to win. I checked on pokercalc and I'm 65% on this pre-flop, so I'm very happy with my EV as the hand went (the pot is $32. I expect $21 of it and I have put in $12, giving me an EV of $9).

But do I get a better EV if opponent on my right calls? Now, if we are ALL fully stacked up, my percentage drops to 45%, while the KK88 double-suited stays at 33% and the "random" hand is 22%. So the pot would be $93 and I would have an expected return of $41.50, or plus $10.50. But one of the players is all-in, creating a two-pot situation.

For pot one (the main pot, $39 in size) I have put in $12 and I expect $17.50 of it, giving me an EV of $5.50. For pot two (side pot, $60 in size) , I am about 70% and I have an expected return of $42, or plus $12. This gives me an EV of $17.50 on the hand. The pair of Aces benefits markedly from being effectively heads up once and multi-player-potted once. Of course, this is obvious and we all knew it anyway, but it's nice to see the maths confirming it occasionally.

Ended session $42 in profit, marking a nice couple of days at PLO, which is now my best hourly rate for the year, even at these stakes (or, perhaps, because it's at these stakes).

Winning a few bob at limit, losing a few bob at PLO, and can't win a place in the Stars FPP satellites for love nor money. Went down the tubes after an hour of careful play last night, building up to 2000 chips while the average stack zoomed to 3,200, and got K8 in the big blind (50-100). Limp UTG and passed round to SB, who completes. I check. Flop is K53 rainbow giving me pair of kings bad kicker. SB (who has 7500 in chips) checks, I check and UTG checks. Turn is a Jack, putting a potential flush draw out. I bet 300 into the 300 pot and get called by the small blind. River is another king. SB bets 1800 into the 900 pot, putting me all in if I call.

I think and think. He has the stack to be able to risk that money, and players who have accumulated a fair amount early on tend to be punters. Could he be trying it on with Jack-Ten, something like that. He might even have King-small and my 8 kicker would play. I call, and he turns over a pair of threes. So it goes. I still can't decide if I should have folded or called. I know that I have called in similar situations in the past and have won, but I can't for the life of me remember if I am ahead or behind in the long run.

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Similar lack of experience hit me in a PLO hand (my last of the night). I picked up AQJ9 (Ace-Jack were suited) UTG and limped for 50c. It was raised a dollar by a very aggressive player on the button. I called.

Flop came T75 rainbow (one of my AJ suit). I check and it's checked round to the button, who bets $4 into a $12 pot. I think that I should fold here, but it was my last hand, so I called. Everyone else folded.

Turn brings a King of the fourth suit. I check, Button bets $8 into a $20 pot.

I can now hit a lock with an Ace, a Queen, a Jack, a nine or an eight. If I put my opponent on something like AAKT, I am a 35% shot, so I'm getting 3.5 to 1 on a 2-to-1 bet, even assuming opponent folds.

On the downside, if opponent has something like AAQJ, I might be shooting for just half the pot in most cases. All things considered, I think that a call is right (we are both fairly deep-stacked, BTW).

Anyway, the river brings a 6. Now, I COULD bet $36 here, staking a claim to an 89. But I don't. I check and fold to opponent's bet.

A myriad of different things that I could have done, with the best probably being folding to the extra dollar pre flop! But, hell what lessons would I have learnt from that?

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To lunch this week at 24, the restaurant on the 24th floor of Tower 42 (the old Nat West Tower, to you and me), to discuss the current state of the European Insurance Market. Yeah, man, I pick the fun topics.

Disappointing food, to be frank, with the lamb particularly sub-standard. It's all very well trying nouvelle cuisine stuff, but if your supplier lets you down on quality, the faults are just magnified. And this lamb just wasn't good enough to be cooked at a high heat for about 3 minutes and then left in the oven for 25 minutes for the heat to seep through into the virtually raw inner sanctum. You need lean meat for that, and one with a marble of fat running through it will be just chewy. And this one was. Oh, and the taste wasn't that great, either. I'm hopeful that the regular chef was on a day off, because it's worrying if he lets dishes like that out of the kitchen. Actually, it's worrying if he allows meat like that into the kitchen in the first place. New supplier, 24!

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I seem to have damaged the top of my shin at the gym. Curious, because I didn't increase the weights on the machine which might have caused the pain, although I did increase the number of reps from two sets of 12 to three sets of twelve. The pain only came alive when I got home yesterday evening. It's now just very sore. My major fear with this weights machine has been damage to the cartilage rather than to the bit where the shin attaches to the knee. I wonder if I might have pulled something on the rowing machine. Damn, I need a book of anatomy!

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On the limit front, the Stars bonus is in play and I'm having a nice run there at the $5-$10. This is curious, given the problems that I had at $3-$6! Without any particularly spectacular cards, I've been getting away from losers and creaming in the winners. Here's one example. I got JJ on the button. MP1 raised and MP3 called. I pitched the hand through gritted teeth. Why? Because I rated that flat call as being a monster. And it was (KK). But there was another reason. I've gone back to the "only enter a pot pre-flop that you intend to win - pitch hands that appear to offer 'value'" strategy. At Stars the Ace-x suiteds on the button or one off the button, with a couple of limpers in front of you, seem to be seriously minus EV.