peterbirks: (Default)
Well, I still need to do the ironing, I think that it might be an idea to have a nap, I want to watch the cricket, some shelves need painting and I've got four articles to write plus about 5,000 words of the "big project". On top of that, I definitely chose the wrong day to go to the cricket (or, rather, the insurance company chose the wrong day to invite me). Not only would I have seen 8 wickets fall in a morning and a bit, but I would also have been in the spot where they had the Channel 4 Roundtable luncheon, which would have allowed me to ask Richie some really tough questions, like "how many fingers am I holding up"?

Today's Richie's classic wasn't exactly wrong, but it was something along the lines of an accountant's explanation. accurate, but uninforming. "It's virtually a one-innings match", he said, as the England operners came out to bat. Hmm, well, with England having a first-innings lead of six, and there being five sessions to go, one could hardly call this sparkling insight.

I've laid the draw at 1.6 down to 1.5, and half-an-hour ago backed England to win 1t 16/1 -- a price I consider farcical. I think that if we get another three sessions, we could well have a result on this pitch, and if England get a lead of around 150, they will know that bowling for a draw won't be an option. So they will have to go for the win. As scenarios go, I think that's a reasonable 6% shot.


Managed to pick up $60 in an hour on Stars this morning in a very odd mini-session. Got nothing for an hour, was $50 down, and then got KK, KK, QQ and 99 in the space of two rounds. All bar the QQ won. Good.

Then after going out on the bubble in the Betfair tourney (watching the cricket in the front room), I twitched onto the PLO.

The Betfair bubble elimination in sixth was a standard one. Several players had survived 50-50s and the chips were very close considering the levels of the blinds. By losing one hand that did not go beyond the flop I went from 10,000 chips (first) to 6,000 chips (fifth). After no cards for six hands, I was down to 4,200 and picked up AJo in the big blind. Button raises 800 to 1,600 (antes of 100 as well) and I flat call, intending to put in the rest of my money on any flop. Board comes A94 rainbow. I go all-in. He calls, I think. Goodie, and he promptly shows Ace-Nine. And even then I had a flush draw on the river, but missed. Bollox.


All made up for in the PLO, where I seemed to get AA remarkably often. The Ultimate Hand Histories are incredibly irritating, in that they disappear if you close the game window. Therefore I lost the most entertaining. I was already $70 up after ritually destroying the poor small-stack guy on my left (he was on his fourth rebuy by the time this happened.

I pick up Ad 9d Ac 7h in MP3 with $120 in front of me. There is a poster behind me. Folded to the player on my right, who has $37. He limps for 50c. I raise $2.25. Poster folds, and SB (with only $12 in front of him) wakes up with a raise to $7. Player on my right calls. This allows me to reraise $29, which I promptly do. SB calls automatically for his last five bucks and the original limper is in a bit of a pickle. He humms and hahhs and folds, so I get $24 returned. I'm not quite sure if I want him to call or fold here. I do know that he could have virtually anything.

Small stack all in shows Kh 8h Ks 8s and hits his heart flush to win. I checked on pokercalc and I'm 65% on this pre-flop, so I'm very happy with my EV as the hand went (the pot is $32. I expect $21 of it and I have put in $12, giving me an EV of $9).

But do I get a better EV if opponent on my right calls? Now, if we are ALL fully stacked up, my percentage drops to 45%, while the KK88 double-suited stays at 33% and the "random" hand is 22%. So the pot would be $93 and I would have an expected return of $41.50, or plus $10.50. But one of the players is all-in, creating a two-pot situation.

For pot one (the main pot, $39 in size) I have put in $12 and I expect $17.50 of it, giving me an EV of $5.50. For pot two (side pot, $60 in size) , I am about 70% and I have an expected return of $42, or plus $12. This gives me an EV of $17.50 on the hand. The pair of Aces benefits markedly from being effectively heads up once and multi-player-potted once. Of course, this is obvious and we all knew it anyway, but it's nice to see the maths confirming it occasionally.

Ended session $42 in profit, marking a nice couple of days at PLO, which is now my best hourly rate for the year, even at these stakes (or, perhaps, because it's at these stakes).
peterbirks: (Default)
I dabbled at some PLO last night. Because there were a number of deep stacks for much of the time, the game played differently, as one would expect. Here's a hand where nothing much seems to happen, but I was pleased with the way it worked out.

(blinds $0.25/$0.50) Pot Limit Omaha Hi
Table "Namur" (real money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: D-man ($44.50 in chips)
Seat 2: IU_Runner31 ($65.25 in chips)
Button: Birks ($58.50 in chips)
Seat 5: jc0607 ($7.00 in chips)
Seat 6: lwb718 ($47.00 in chips)
Seat 7: River26 ($93.00 in chips)
Seat 8: BruuD_NL ($185.25 in chips)
Seat 9: adepts ($32.00 in chips)
jc0607 : Post Small Blind ($0.25)
lwb718 : Post Big Blind ($0.50)

Dealt to Birks 8s Ks 9c Ac

River26 : Call ($0.50)
IU_Runner31: Raise ($2.25)
Birks : Call ($2.25)
lwb718 : Call ($1.75)
River26 : Call ($1.75)

I'm happy to call here. My flush chances are not excessively vulnerable and my straight opportunities are, to be blunt, shite.

*** FLOP *** : [ 8d 4c 9h ]
lwb718 : Check
River26 : Check
IU_Runner31: Bet ($4)
Birks : Call ($4)
lwb718 : Fold
River26 : Fold

The trap is laid.

*** TURN *** : [ 8d 4c 9h ] [ Js ]
IU_Runner31: Check
Birks : Bet ($11)
IU_Runner31: Fold
Birks : Winner -- doesn't show cards

Maybe my middle-two-pair are winning here, but it doesn't really matter. If I hit a nine or an eight, I have the guy in big trouble, whereas if a 5, 6, 7, T or Q comes, and he checks, I can bet the pot to represent the straight. Opponent would have to be very brave to check with the nut straight, because he is probably giving me a free card if I am on a draw. And if he flat calls me with, say 44, he knows that I am likely to bet the pot at him again on the river if the board does not pair. Finally, note the importance of the rainbow flop and then the ├╝ber-rainbow turn. These cut out any chance of him having a "back-up" call, and probably make him less suspicious that I am betting anything but the straight.

*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: $16.50 | Rake: $0.75
Board: [ 8d 4c 9h Js ]
D-man didn't bet (folded)
IU_Runner31 lost $6.25 (folded)
plucker didn't bet
Birks bet $17.25, collected $27.50, net +$10.25 [ 8s Ks 9c Ac ] (two pair, nines and eights)
jc0607 lost $0.25 (folded)
lwb718 lost $2.25 (folded)
River26 lost $2.25 (folded)
BruuD_NL didn't bet (folded)
adepts didn't bet (folded)


An entertaining Limit Hand

There was a 93% fish at the table tonight on Party. He lost $600, and not only did I not get a penny of it, but this hand helped ensure that I finished up $150 down. I suppose that I can get away from it, but I'd like to see anyone manage it without the benfit of that powerful weapon hindsight. Sure, I have a bad feeling. But I've satuyed in with hands like this before and won. I print it here because, well, basically it's hilarious. It would have been nicer if I won, though.

$5/$10 Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, August 16,
Table Table 13070 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 5: LilAlvin ( $54.50 )
Seat 10: Birks ( $378.50 )
Seat 2: ffredd ( $71 )
Seat 9: bmth11 ( $357.25 )
Seat 1: Sancho555 ( $353 )
Seat 6: RoastBeans ( $345.50 )
Seat 8: Lunacy00 ( $242.50 )
Seat 3: MazaA ( $281.50 )
Seat 7: foldequity ( $250 )
Button: sharples ( $150 )
LilAlvin posts small blind [$2].
RoastBeans posts big blind [$5].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Birks [ Kd Kc ]

Lunacy00 folds.
bmth11 calls [$5].
Birks raises [$10].
Sancho555 raises [$15]
ffredd folds.
MazaA folds.
LilAlvin calls [$13].
RoastBeans folds.
bmth11 calls [$10].
Birks raises [$10].

Heads up I would be tempted to flat call here, but with this number of players, I decided that building the pot had a better EV. Subtlety had little place.

Sancho555 calls [$5].
LilAlvin calls [$5].
bmth11 calls [$5].

$82 in the pot now, btw

** Dealing Flop ** [ 7c, Js, 2h ]
LilAlvin checks.
bmth11 bets [$5].
Birks raises [$10].
Sancho555 raises [$15].

LilAlvin calls [$15].
bmth11 calls [$10].
Birks calls [$5].

At this point I'm wondering whether Sancho has Aces or Jacks. But he might have Ace-Jack suited, or Queens. The other two players could be in on any pair, to be frank.

** Dealing Turn ** [ 7s ]
That puts two sevens on board. Lil Alvin might have something like 87.

LilAlvin checks.
bmth11 bets [$10].
Birks calls [$10].
Sancho555 calls [$10].
LilAlvin is all-In.
bmth11 calls [$9.50].
Birks raises [$19.50].

With Sancho's call, I really think that I am up against Ace-Jack here, possibly twice. I reckon if I raise and am not reraised by either, there is definitely no seven out and no JJ out.

Sancho555 calls [$19.50].
bmth11 calls [$10].

** Dealing River ** [ 4d ]

bmth11 checks.
Birks checks.
There are limits to how far you can bet for value.
Sancho555 bets [$10].
bmth11 calls [$10].
Birks calls [$10].

I feel like shit now, but I cannot fold, especially since I am last to bet.

Sancho555 shows [ Ks, Kh ] two pairs, kings and sevens.
LilAlvin doesn't show [ Qd, Qc ] two pairs, queens and sevens.
bmth11 shows [ As, Ah ] two pairs, aces and sevens.
Birks doesn't show [ Kd, Kc ] two pairs, kings and sevens.
bmth11 wins $60 from side pot #1 with two pairs, aces and sevens.
bmth11 wins $220 from the main pot with two pairs, aces and sevens.

Well, obvious, really, when you think about it. AA, KK, KK, and QQ. How could I have missed that combination? And BMTH played it well.
peterbirks: (Default)
Winning a few bob at limit, losing a few bob at PLO, and can't win a place in the Stars FPP satellites for love nor money. Went down the tubes after an hour of careful play last night, building up to 2000 chips while the average stack zoomed to 3,200, and got K8 in the big blind (50-100). Limp UTG and passed round to SB, who completes. I check. Flop is K53 rainbow giving me pair of kings bad kicker. SB (who has 7500 in chips) checks, I check and UTG checks. Turn is a Jack, putting a potential flush draw out. I bet 300 into the 300 pot and get called by the small blind. River is another king. SB bets 1800 into the 900 pot, putting me all in if I call.

I think and think. He has the stack to be able to risk that money, and players who have accumulated a fair amount early on tend to be punters. Could he be trying it on with Jack-Ten, something like that. He might even have King-small and my 8 kicker would play. I call, and he turns over a pair of threes. So it goes. I still can't decide if I should have folded or called. I know that I have called in similar situations in the past and have won, but I can't for the life of me remember if I am ahead or behind in the long run.


Similar lack of experience hit me in a PLO hand (my last of the night). I picked up AQJ9 (Ace-Jack were suited) UTG and limped for 50c. It was raised a dollar by a very aggressive player on the button. I called.

Flop came T75 rainbow (one of my AJ suit). I check and it's checked round to the button, who bets $4 into a $12 pot. I think that I should fold here, but it was my last hand, so I called. Everyone else folded.

Turn brings a King of the fourth suit. I check, Button bets $8 into a $20 pot.

I can now hit a lock with an Ace, a Queen, a Jack, a nine or an eight. If I put my opponent on something like AAKT, I am a 35% shot, so I'm getting 3.5 to 1 on a 2-to-1 bet, even assuming opponent folds.

On the downside, if opponent has something like AAQJ, I might be shooting for just half the pot in most cases. All things considered, I think that a call is right (we are both fairly deep-stacked, BTW).

Anyway, the river brings a 6. Now, I COULD bet $36 here, staking a claim to an 89. But I don't. I check and fold to opponent's bet.

A myriad of different things that I could have done, with the best probably being folding to the extra dollar pre flop! But, hell what lessons would I have learnt from that?


To lunch this week at 24, the restaurant on the 24th floor of Tower 42 (the old Nat West Tower, to you and me), to discuss the current state of the European Insurance Market. Yeah, man, I pick the fun topics.

Disappointing food, to be frank, with the lamb particularly sub-standard. It's all very well trying nouvelle cuisine stuff, but if your supplier lets you down on quality, the faults are just magnified. And this lamb just wasn't good enough to be cooked at a high heat for about 3 minutes and then left in the oven for 25 minutes for the heat to seep through into the virtually raw inner sanctum. You need lean meat for that, and one with a marble of fat running through it will be just chewy. And this one was. Oh, and the taste wasn't that great, either. I'm hopeful that the regular chef was on a day off, because it's worrying if he lets dishes like that out of the kitchen. Actually, it's worrying if he allows meat like that into the kitchen in the first place. New supplier, 24!


I seem to have damaged the top of my shin at the gym. Curious, because I didn't increase the weights on the machine which might have caused the pain, although I did increase the number of reps from two sets of 12 to three sets of twelve. The pain only came alive when I got home yesterday evening. It's now just very sore. My major fear with this weights machine has been damage to the cartilage rather than to the bit where the shin attaches to the knee. I wonder if I might have pulled something on the rowing machine. Damn, I need a book of anatomy!


On the limit front, the Stars bonus is in play and I'm having a nice run there at the $5-$10. This is curious, given the problems that I had at $3-$6! Without any particularly spectacular cards, I've been getting away from losers and creaming in the winners. Here's one example. I got JJ on the button. MP1 raised and MP3 called. I pitched the hand through gritted teeth. Why? Because I rated that flat call as being a monster. And it was (KK). But there was another reason. I've gone back to the "only enter a pot pre-flop that you intend to win - pitch hands that appear to offer 'value'" strategy. At Stars the Ace-x suiteds on the button or one off the button, with a couple of limpers in front of you, seem to be seriously minus EV.

August 2017

20 212223242526


RSS Atom

Most Popular Tags

Style Credit

Expand Cut Tags

No cut tags
Page generated Oct. 22nd, 2017 05:18 pm
Powered by Dreamwidth Studios