![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
A good morning
Sep. 11th, 2005 03:25 pmWell, I still need to do the ironing, I think that it might be an idea to have a nap, I want to watch the cricket, some shelves need painting and I've got four articles to write plus about 5,000 words of the "big project". On top of that, I definitely chose the wrong day to go to the cricket (or, rather, the insurance company chose the wrong day to invite me). Not only would I have seen 8 wickets fall in a morning and a bit, but I would also have been in the spot where they had the Channel 4 Roundtable luncheon, which would have allowed me to ask Richie some really tough questions, like "how many fingers am I holding up"?
Today's Richie's classic wasn't exactly wrong, but it was something along the lines of an accountant's explanation. accurate, but uninforming. "It's virtually a one-innings match", he said, as the England operners came out to bat. Hmm, well, with England having a first-innings lead of six, and there being five sessions to go, one could hardly call this sparkling insight.
I've laid the draw at 1.6 down to 1.5, and half-an-hour ago backed England to win 1t 16/1 -- a price I consider farcical. I think that if we get another three sessions, we could well have a result on this pitch, and if England get a lead of around 150, they will know that bowling for a draw won't be an option. So they will have to go for the win. As scenarios go, I think that's a reasonable 6% shot.
+++++
Managed to pick up $60 in an hour on Stars this morning in a very odd mini-session. Got nothing for an hour, was $50 down, and then got KK, KK, QQ and 99 in the space of two rounds. All bar the QQ won. Good.
Then after going out on the bubble in the Betfair tourney (watching the cricket in the front room), I twitched onto the PLO.
The Betfair bubble elimination in sixth was a standard one. Several players had survived 50-50s and the chips were very close considering the levels of the blinds. By losing one hand that did not go beyond the flop I went from 10,000 chips (first) to 6,000 chips (fifth). After no cards for six hands, I was down to 4,200 and picked up AJo in the big blind. Button raises 800 to 1,600 (antes of 100 as well) and I flat call, intending to put in the rest of my money on any flop. Board comes A94 rainbow. I go all-in. He calls, I think. Goodie, and he promptly shows Ace-Nine. And even then I had a flush draw on the river, but missed. Bollox.
+++++
All made up for in the PLO, where I seemed to get AA remarkably often. The Ultimate Hand Histories are incredibly irritating, in that they disappear if you close the game window. Therefore I lost the most entertaining. I was already $70 up after ritually destroying the poor small-stack guy on my left (he was on his fourth rebuy by the time this happened.
I pick up Ad 9d Ac 7h in MP3 with $120 in front of me. There is a poster behind me. Folded to the player on my right, who has $37. He limps for 50c. I raise $2.25. Poster folds, and SB (with only $12 in front of him) wakes up with a raise to $7. Player on my right calls. This allows me to reraise $29, which I promptly do. SB calls automatically for his last five bucks and the original limper is in a bit of a pickle. He humms and hahhs and folds, so I get $24 returned. I'm not quite sure if I want him to call or fold here. I do know that he could have virtually anything.
Small stack all in shows Kh 8h Ks 8s and hits his heart flush to win. I checked on pokercalc and I'm 65% on this pre-flop, so I'm very happy with my EV as the hand went (the pot is $32. I expect $21 of it and I have put in $12, giving me an EV of $9).
But do I get a better EV if opponent on my right calls? Now, if we are ALL fully stacked up, my percentage drops to 45%, while the KK88 double-suited stays at 33% and the "random" hand is 22%. So the pot would be $93 and I would have an expected return of $41.50, or plus $10.50. But one of the players is all-in, creating a two-pot situation.
For pot one (the main pot, $39 in size) I have put in $12 and I expect $17.50 of it, giving me an EV of $5.50. For pot two (side pot, $60 in size) , I am about 70% and I have an expected return of $42, or plus $12. This gives me an EV of $17.50 on the hand. The pair of Aces benefits markedly from being effectively heads up once and multi-player-potted once. Of course, this is obvious and we all knew it anyway, but it's nice to see the maths confirming it occasionally.
Ended session $42 in profit, marking a nice couple of days at PLO, which is now my best hourly rate for the year, even at these stakes (or, perhaps, because it's at these stakes).
Today's Richie's classic wasn't exactly wrong, but it was something along the lines of an accountant's explanation. accurate, but uninforming. "It's virtually a one-innings match", he said, as the England operners came out to bat. Hmm, well, with England having a first-innings lead of six, and there being five sessions to go, one could hardly call this sparkling insight.
I've laid the draw at 1.6 down to 1.5, and half-an-hour ago backed England to win 1t 16/1 -- a price I consider farcical. I think that if we get another three sessions, we could well have a result on this pitch, and if England get a lead of around 150, they will know that bowling for a draw won't be an option. So they will have to go for the win. As scenarios go, I think that's a reasonable 6% shot.
+++++
Managed to pick up $60 in an hour on Stars this morning in a very odd mini-session. Got nothing for an hour, was $50 down, and then got KK, KK, QQ and 99 in the space of two rounds. All bar the QQ won. Good.
Then after going out on the bubble in the Betfair tourney (watching the cricket in the front room), I twitched onto the PLO.
The Betfair bubble elimination in sixth was a standard one. Several players had survived 50-50s and the chips were very close considering the levels of the blinds. By losing one hand that did not go beyond the flop I went from 10,000 chips (first) to 6,000 chips (fifth). After no cards for six hands, I was down to 4,200 and picked up AJo in the big blind. Button raises 800 to 1,600 (antes of 100 as well) and I flat call, intending to put in the rest of my money on any flop. Board comes A94 rainbow. I go all-in. He calls, I think. Goodie, and he promptly shows Ace-Nine. And even then I had a flush draw on the river, but missed. Bollox.
+++++
All made up for in the PLO, where I seemed to get AA remarkably often. The Ultimate Hand Histories are incredibly irritating, in that they disappear if you close the game window. Therefore I lost the most entertaining. I was already $70 up after ritually destroying the poor small-stack guy on my left (he was on his fourth rebuy by the time this happened.
I pick up Ad 9d Ac 7h in MP3 with $120 in front of me. There is a poster behind me. Folded to the player on my right, who has $37. He limps for 50c. I raise $2.25. Poster folds, and SB (with only $12 in front of him) wakes up with a raise to $7. Player on my right calls. This allows me to reraise $29, which I promptly do. SB calls automatically for his last five bucks and the original limper is in a bit of a pickle. He humms and hahhs and folds, so I get $24 returned. I'm not quite sure if I want him to call or fold here. I do know that he could have virtually anything.
Small stack all in shows Kh 8h Ks 8s and hits his heart flush to win. I checked on pokercalc and I'm 65% on this pre-flop, so I'm very happy with my EV as the hand went (the pot is $32. I expect $21 of it and I have put in $12, giving me an EV of $9).
But do I get a better EV if opponent on my right calls? Now, if we are ALL fully stacked up, my percentage drops to 45%, while the KK88 double-suited stays at 33% and the "random" hand is 22%. So the pot would be $93 and I would have an expected return of $41.50, or plus $10.50. But one of the players is all-in, creating a two-pot situation.
For pot one (the main pot, $39 in size) I have put in $12 and I expect $17.50 of it, giving me an EV of $5.50. For pot two (side pot, $60 in size) , I am about 70% and I have an expected return of $42, or plus $12. This gives me an EV of $17.50 on the hand. The pair of Aces benefits markedly from being effectively heads up once and multi-player-potted once. Of course, this is obvious and we all knew it anyway, but it's nice to see the maths confirming it occasionally.
Ended session $42 in profit, marking a nice couple of days at PLO, which is now my best hourly rate for the year, even at these stakes (or, perhaps, because it's at these stakes).
