On PLO Variance
Apr. 14th, 2005 07:26 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksBig Dave D wrote in his blog http://internetpokerpro.blogspot.com/ that he knew of some players who had survived on the live pot limit omaha scene for years, solely buoyed up by occasional vast wins that hid the fact that they did not really know what they were doing. Such is the swinginess of PLO.
It's also worrying. How do you know that you know what you are doing? My only comparison is with Limit Hold 'Em, where I DO know that I know what I am doing. So I guess it's a bit like the unhelpful advice you get from computer engineers when you ask how you know that something has slotted in correctly. "You'll know when it has", they say. Wow, thanks a lot, gumbo. Meanwhile you wonder how much force you should apply to your expensive graphics card without breaking it, because at the moment you don't "know that it has" clicked in properly.
Anyway, I'm pretty sure that in the $100 sit-down yesterday, I didn't know what I was doing. In Limit, knowing what you are doing is like looking at a road map where you know all the short cuts and precisely what route you are going to take to get from A to B. With PLO at the moment I often am not sure where I am going and wherever that might be, when or how I shall arrive there. So, some serious hand analysis is in order.
I have more control at the $50 sit-down, and a quick study of my standard deviation indicates that this is roughly on a par with $2-$4 limit in terms of variance. This is a good parameter to work with. Quality of play in the long term is, I think, closely correlated to the standard deviation in a game. So the $50 an hour SD in $2-$4 limit equates closely to the SD found in 25c-50c antes ($50 sit down max) in PLO. This probably means that in the $100 sit-down I was playing players of a standard close to $3-$6 in limit (allowing for the generally lower standard of PLO play in the US). This is far from weak.
Perhaps I should stop worrying about the swinginess and attack the games on a Friday night, when the games are noticeably looser and weaker. Just rock up and wait for the sets and made hands on the flop. Then try to play them correctly.
It's also worrying. How do you know that you know what you are doing? My only comparison is with Limit Hold 'Em, where I DO know that I know what I am doing. So I guess it's a bit like the unhelpful advice you get from computer engineers when you ask how you know that something has slotted in correctly. "You'll know when it has", they say. Wow, thanks a lot, gumbo. Meanwhile you wonder how much force you should apply to your expensive graphics card without breaking it, because at the moment you don't "know that it has" clicked in properly.
Anyway, I'm pretty sure that in the $100 sit-down yesterday, I didn't know what I was doing. In Limit, knowing what you are doing is like looking at a road map where you know all the short cuts and precisely what route you are going to take to get from A to B. With PLO at the moment I often am not sure where I am going and wherever that might be, when or how I shall arrive there. So, some serious hand analysis is in order.
I have more control at the $50 sit-down, and a quick study of my standard deviation indicates that this is roughly on a par with $2-$4 limit in terms of variance. This is a good parameter to work with. Quality of play in the long term is, I think, closely correlated to the standard deviation in a game. So the $50 an hour SD in $2-$4 limit equates closely to the SD found in 25c-50c antes ($50 sit down max) in PLO. This probably means that in the $100 sit-down I was playing players of a standard close to $3-$6 in limit (allowing for the generally lower standard of PLO play in the US). This is far from weak.
Perhaps I should stop worrying about the swinginess and attack the games on a Friday night, when the games are noticeably looser and weaker. Just rock up and wait for the sets and made hands on the flop. Then try to play them correctly.
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Small ponds
I get the impression that the good players without very deep pockets on Party congregate on the $100 PLO tables as they can win fast enough to justify the effort (I've seen gains of $50-$80 an hour from some players), but keep variance down.
Myself, I struggle on the $100 at times and as for the bigger tables, aaarghh! The problem is that on the $200 table, one bad beat, one mistake and $300 are down the pan.
I know what you mean about Friday nights, but I find that mornings between 7:30 and 09:00 our time are good too. there are tired West coast players losing the plot!
I've not tried Ultimate yet, though I have an account, maybe I should be recommended by a friend :-)