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How many top poker players do you know of who have done their bollocks at Craps, or some other negative EV game? Quite a few, I should think.
So, why do they do it?
Well, there are many reasons for this, but I thought of a new one (for me) the other day. It was inspired by Chris Fargas's observation that he felt worse about losing than he felt good about winning. This meant that, even though he was a winner at poker, the accumulative emotional effect was negative.
Now, the accepted wisdom is that, even if a bet is neutral EV, we feel worse about losing that bet than we feel good about winning it. But if you are a poker player, it's worse than that. Because, of course, your EV at poker is positive, if you are a winning poker player.
So, when you play poker, and you win, then things are how they should be. So why should you feel good about it? A computer-like player (with emotions, if you see what I mean) could feel "good" if he won more than his average winnings per hour, but that's a tall order in emotional requirements. As a rule, unless a win is absolutely brilliant, there isn't that much positive emotion attached.
Contrarily, if a winning poker player loses, then of course there is a severe negative emotional reaction, because things have not happened as the odds would indicate. Not only have you lost, but you have, by definition, been unlucky.
Now, spin this onto its head. If I play a negative EV game, I expect to lose. Losing, therefore, does not generate much of a negative reaction, because things were as they should be. However, if I defy the odds, get lucky, beat fate at its own game, and I win, then I feel great. I am blessed, I am the lucky one incarnate. In fact, even if I break even, I feel fairly good.
So, in emotional reward rather than financial reward, the negative EV game has a lot going for it. Because you expect so little, anything that you get back makes you happy. In poker, because you are a winner, you expect a lot. Anything that you don't get back, makes you sad. Tghe negative EV game's positive emotional bias counterbalances the negative emotion that builds up from suffering the standard deviations of poker.
Gimme a Hard Eight, $2,000.
So, why do they do it?
Well, there are many reasons for this, but I thought of a new one (for me) the other day. It was inspired by Chris Fargas's observation that he felt worse about losing than he felt good about winning. This meant that, even though he was a winner at poker, the accumulative emotional effect was negative.
Now, the accepted wisdom is that, even if a bet is neutral EV, we feel worse about losing that bet than we feel good about winning it. But if you are a poker player, it's worse than that. Because, of course, your EV at poker is positive, if you are a winning poker player.
So, when you play poker, and you win, then things are how they should be. So why should you feel good about it? A computer-like player (with emotions, if you see what I mean) could feel "good" if he won more than his average winnings per hour, but that's a tall order in emotional requirements. As a rule, unless a win is absolutely brilliant, there isn't that much positive emotion attached.
Contrarily, if a winning poker player loses, then of course there is a severe negative emotional reaction, because things have not happened as the odds would indicate. Not only have you lost, but you have, by definition, been unlucky.
Now, spin this onto its head. If I play a negative EV game, I expect to lose. Losing, therefore, does not generate much of a negative reaction, because things were as they should be. However, if I defy the odds, get lucky, beat fate at its own game, and I win, then I feel great. I am blessed, I am the lucky one incarnate. In fact, even if I break even, I feel fairly good.
So, in emotional reward rather than financial reward, the negative EV game has a lot going for it. Because you expect so little, anything that you get back makes you happy. In poker, because you are a winner, you expect a lot. Anything that you don't get back, makes you sad. Tghe negative EV game's positive emotional bias counterbalances the negative emotion that builds up from suffering the standard deviations of poker.
Gimme a Hard Eight, $2,000.
