Oct. 3rd, 2007

peterbirks: (Default)
Gawd, the bathroom is getting me down (it was all a mistake, I can see myself getting someone to rip it all out and start again in 12 months time ... sigh) my teeth are getting me down, this job is getting me down. In fact, you can be fairly sure that when I only feel comforted by albums such as the latest from iLiKETRAiNS, things are at a sorry impasse. Insomnia is coming back as well, so I feel perpetually knackered ... which mitigates against going to the Gym.

Not that I have time for that either, as various admin tasks at work are swallowing up that allocated time.

And, last night, there was this hand. There's no real argument (I think!) about my play, but what range would you put opponents on?

It went something like this (done from memory, but reasonably accurate)

8-handed $100 buy-in. Might have been one player sitting out


Me: Big Blind: $78
UTG+1: $78
CO: $120

Me: Posts $1: Ad Kd


UTG+1 limps. UTG looks to be looseish, something like 32%/6%, but not on a large sample.

CO Limps. CO has appeared tight and moderately aggressive. I've got more stats on this guy, and I think he's a winner. Something like 18%/7%

I raise $6 to $7.

UTG+1 calls
CO calls

About $20.50 in the pot.

Flop: Ah Jd Td.


Gives me TPTK, flush draw, gutshot straight draw, draw to a royal flush.

Me: Bet $20:
UTG+1: Raise to $70 all-in
CO: Either raises to $112 all-in or calls, can't remember which.

I'd actually been looking at the odds for a call of a single player going all-in, but even then there's no way that I am folding -- even against a set I'm more than 33%, I reckon. KQ is the major fear, but even then I have outs for a split pot as well as runner-runner for a full house and my bog-standard diamond draw. I'm not folding here. With an over-caller, the odds become even more attractive. What I'd like is straight vs straight or set vs set, or set vs 2-pair. Well, maybe, that was just a bit of what went through my head. I wasn't considering folding, so I didn't delve too deeply into the maths.

So, what would be your range of opponents' hands? I kind of had original raise as two-pair up to a straight, and caller as set up to a straight.

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