![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksEarly on the second day of the test I looked at the price for the draw on Betfair and saw a very attractive 2.3. Attractive, that is, in the sense that I thought there was no chance of the game being a draw. Only a couple of tests in the past 25 years there have been drawn, and rain was a factor in both of those, I think.
Despite there being rain forecast for some of Monday, I reckoned the chance of a draw at no more than 30% to 35%.
So, I lumped on, all ready to hedge it back when things got favourable.
Well, it didn't work out like that. England duly got to 500, but then Pakistan decided they'd have a go as well. When two teams have 500 apiece at the end of the third day, and rain is forecast for the fourth, well, I just didn't even look at the prices. The money was as good as written off.
But then, after I woke up from a nap at anout 5pm yesterday, England were seven wickets down for 300-odd. Hang on, I thought to myself, there's hope here.
I waited until close of play and, while three-tabling on Party, I checked the score (England all-out, Pakistan 0-0) and then the odds on Betfair. Well, bugger me. The draw was 2.65.
What a Get Out! In the mode of not pushing your luck too far, I decided to hedge back and take my profits.
Which would have been a fine idea, if I hadn't put my bet on the wrong way. All of a sudden, my potential loss if the match did end in a draw ballooned to four figures. FUCK! So, of course, I had to double that bet and put it on the other side. If Betfair wasn't completely automated, I bet that they would have had a chuckle at that. So, a guaranteed profit of £31, (£50 if either side wins), but a loss of £14 solely as a result of pressing the wrong button and having to pay the "spread" on £700 of completely unnecessary bets. Wottatossa.
Moral. Do not enter slightly complex financial arrangements on Betfair when three-tabling on the other computer. It will end in tears.
Despite there being rain forecast for some of Monday, I reckoned the chance of a draw at no more than 30% to 35%.
So, I lumped on, all ready to hedge it back when things got favourable.
Well, it didn't work out like that. England duly got to 500, but then Pakistan decided they'd have a go as well. When two teams have 500 apiece at the end of the third day, and rain is forecast for the fourth, well, I just didn't even look at the prices. The money was as good as written off.
But then, after I woke up from a nap at anout 5pm yesterday, England were seven wickets down for 300-odd. Hang on, I thought to myself, there's hope here.
I waited until close of play and, while three-tabling on Party, I checked the score (England all-out, Pakistan 0-0) and then the odds on Betfair. Well, bugger me. The draw was 2.65.
What a Get Out! In the mode of not pushing your luck too far, I decided to hedge back and take my profits.
Which would have been a fine idea, if I hadn't put my bet on the wrong way. All of a sudden, my potential loss if the match did end in a draw ballooned to four figures. FUCK! So, of course, I had to double that bet and put it on the other side. If Betfair wasn't completely automated, I bet that they would have had a chuckle at that. So, a guaranteed profit of £31, (£50 if either side wins), but a loss of £14 solely as a result of pressing the wrong button and having to pay the "spread" on £700 of completely unnecessary bets. Wottatossa.
Moral. Do not enter slightly complex financial arrangements on Betfair when three-tabling on the other computer. It will end in tears.
