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peterbirksEarly on the second day of the test I looked at the price for the draw on Betfair and saw a very attractive 2.3. Attractive, that is, in the sense that I thought there was no chance of the game being a draw. Only a couple of tests in the past 25 years there have been drawn, and rain was a factor in both of those, I think.
Despite there being rain forecast for some of Monday, I reckoned the chance of a draw at no more than 30% to 35%.
So, I lumped on, all ready to hedge it back when things got favourable.
Well, it didn't work out like that. England duly got to 500, but then Pakistan decided they'd have a go as well. When two teams have 500 apiece at the end of the third day, and rain is forecast for the fourth, well, I just didn't even look at the prices. The money was as good as written off.
But then, after I woke up from a nap at anout 5pm yesterday, England were seven wickets down for 300-odd. Hang on, I thought to myself, there's hope here.
I waited until close of play and, while three-tabling on Party, I checked the score (England all-out, Pakistan 0-0) and then the odds on Betfair. Well, bugger me. The draw was 2.65.
What a Get Out! In the mode of not pushing your luck too far, I decided to hedge back and take my profits.
Which would have been a fine idea, if I hadn't put my bet on the wrong way. All of a sudden, my potential loss if the match did end in a draw ballooned to four figures. FUCK! So, of course, I had to double that bet and put it on the other side. If Betfair wasn't completely automated, I bet that they would have had a chuckle at that. So, a guaranteed profit of £31, (£50 if either side wins), but a loss of £14 solely as a result of pressing the wrong button and having to pay the "spread" on £700 of completely unnecessary bets. Wottatossa.
Moral. Do not enter slightly complex financial arrangements on Betfair when three-tabling on the other computer. It will end in tears.
Despite there being rain forecast for some of Monday, I reckoned the chance of a draw at no more than 30% to 35%.
So, I lumped on, all ready to hedge it back when things got favourable.
Well, it didn't work out like that. England duly got to 500, but then Pakistan decided they'd have a go as well. When two teams have 500 apiece at the end of the third day, and rain is forecast for the fourth, well, I just didn't even look at the prices. The money was as good as written off.
But then, after I woke up from a nap at anout 5pm yesterday, England were seven wickets down for 300-odd. Hang on, I thought to myself, there's hope here.
I waited until close of play and, while three-tabling on Party, I checked the score (England all-out, Pakistan 0-0) and then the odds on Betfair. Well, bugger me. The draw was 2.65.
What a Get Out! In the mode of not pushing your luck too far, I decided to hedge back and take my profits.
Which would have been a fine idea, if I hadn't put my bet on the wrong way. All of a sudden, my potential loss if the match did end in a draw ballooned to four figures. FUCK! So, of course, I had to double that bet and put it on the other side. If Betfair wasn't completely automated, I bet that they would have had a chuckle at that. So, a guaranteed profit of £31, (£50 if either side wins), but a loss of £14 solely as a result of pressing the wrong button and having to pay the "spread" on £700 of completely unnecessary bets. Wottatossa.
Moral. Do not enter slightly complex financial arrangements on Betfair when three-tabling on the other computer. It will end in tears.
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no subject
Date: 2006-08-08 12:32 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-08-08 01:04 pm (UTC)Oh, ok, since the price at the moment is 3.95 (let's say, 4, between friends), and assuming that I hadn't ballsed up the hedging, we get liability £575, gain £400, hedged back at £160, gains £80 if it's a draw and £95 if it's a win for either side (but that's just off the top of my head -- I usually can only work it out by putting in several numbers until something comes out that looks right).
The reason the price has not changed as much as you might think is that the Pakistan collapse pushes out the price of a Pakistan win by a much greater amount. If the score was, say 180 for 5, then the chance of a draw would be closer to 6 (5-to-1).
Whoops, must be another wicket as I type. Pakistand price has just gone out.
PJ
3rd Test
Date: 2006-08-08 05:49 pm (UTC)Just back from a very entertaining day at the test. There was never much danger of draw from where I was sitting in the East Stand. England's bowling and fielding were excellent throughout and they got their just rewards. The Pakistan fans gave Mahmood a lot of stick with chants of "Traitor" but he got his revenge in just the right way. A grand day out.
Brian Frew