You need to read the thread (you obviously haven't) to see why this derivation was too complex for the three posters on that thread.
I am of course aware of the line you mention -- it's the one that all poker players use. It was the line used by Simon to correct the initial assertion.
It didn't work. Hence my use of the slow, inelegant and "unsimple" explanation.
As with most mathematically litereate people, you are confusing "elegant" with "simple". The elegant mathematical explanation is rarely the easiest to understand. For that you need slowness, and inelegance.
See The Mathematics of Poker for many examples of how the complex can be explained to the mathematically untrained. It isn't "simple" and it isn't "elegant" (and it frequently requires repetition), but it's needed for those who haven't studied probability or for those who do not understand it intuitively.
It's no surprise that these guys are players rather than teachers. I've yet to meet a mathematics teacher who was good at mathematics who could teach mathematics. The best teachers of mathematics were those who were not very good at the subject, but understood it to a relatively basic level.
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Re: Combination therapy
Date: 2007-01-17 10:39 am (UTC)I am of course aware of the line you mention -- it's the one that all poker players use. It was the line used by Simon to correct the initial assertion.
It didn't work. Hence my use of the slow, inelegant and "unsimple" explanation.
As with most mathematically litereate people, you are confusing "elegant" with "simple". The elegant mathematical explanation is rarely the easiest to understand. For that you need slowness, and inelegance.
See The Mathematics of Poker for many examples of how the complex can be explained to the mathematically untrained. It isn't "simple" and it isn't "elegant" (and it frequently requires repetition), but it's needed for those who haven't studied probability or for those who do not understand it intuitively.
It's no surprise that these guys are players rather than teachers. I've yet to meet a mathematics teacher who was good at mathematics who could teach mathematics. The best teachers of mathematics were those who were not very good at the subject, but understood it to a relatively basic level.
PJ