I agree that it doesn't look any easier, Simon, but in my experience the easiest way to convince the denyers of obvious probabilistic truths is (if possible), to show them all possible events, then to show them all the events which they are talking about, and then to divide one into the other. Even better, you ask THEM to divide one into the other. This seems to convince them that it is they who have arrived at the correct answer, and makes it less embarrassing for them to change their stance.
I admit that it may not work to convince people so well on paper....
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Re: Combination therapy
Date: 2007-01-17 10:59 am (UTC)I admit that it may not work to convince people so well on paper....
PJ