![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Cannny observers of this sequential drivel might notice that the web adddress has changed. Live Journal restructured all its users addresses to http/username/liverjournal.com. Unfortunately, this doesn't work for usernames that began or ended with an underscore. They offered a free name change, so I took it. The old favourite will still redirect, but if you want to save a nanosecond, use the new address.
All of which appears to part of the new year's security flaws. LiveJournal (sort of) explained the reason for the change, but I didn't really understand it and I had no real desire so to do. I'm not that geeky. But security flaws seem to be the hip issue of the day. I went to the Gutshot site yesterday morning and it was "down for maintenance". Last night I went to the forum and my machine at home had a fit. It claimed to have found half a dozen Windows Meta Files (the files through which trojans are stored in images) on the Gutshot forum site. It casually deleted them and steadfastly refused to display the forum at all. An event which, I fear caused me no great sense of loss.
+++
I see that the Euro Lottery has a nine-week rollover. I've not paid much attention to the mathematics of this, so forgive me if my numbers are wrong — the luxury of time for research is denied me just at the moment. But it seems as if you are getting 85m-to-1 on a 76m-to-1 shot. So, with such massive positive expected value, clearly we will all be putting all our wealth into the Euro lottery this week.
Well, no, we won't. Which is a good example of the marginal value of money and the significance of big numbers. Even with positive EV, the chance of the big win is minuscule, so you are hardly likely to place your entire wealth on a single roll of the dice. Bankroll management, you see.
So, what would be a sensible proportion of your wealth to put on the Euro lottery this week? Well, that depends on your marginal valuation of money, I guess. 1%? 5%? 10%? I have no easy answers here. For me the answer is 0%, simply because I can't be bothered. But it would be nice to know if there had been any rational research on this, rather than the cobblers spouted by most people on poker forums.
+++++
I went to the police station yesterday to give my witness statement and to sign in as potential evidence the mobile phone that I found in my non-stolen car (see Sunday blog). I typed out the statement beforehand but, of course, bureaucracy requires that a policeman then write out my typed statement by hand so that I can sign it. That's the way they do things, you see. Modern society? Impenetrable, mate.
How long before I can get out of here?
All of which appears to part of the new year's security flaws. LiveJournal (sort of) explained the reason for the change, but I didn't really understand it and I had no real desire so to do. I'm not that geeky. But security flaws seem to be the hip issue of the day. I went to the Gutshot site yesterday morning and it was "down for maintenance". Last night I went to the forum and my machine at home had a fit. It claimed to have found half a dozen Windows Meta Files (the files through which trojans are stored in images) on the Gutshot forum site. It casually deleted them and steadfastly refused to display the forum at all. An event which, I fear caused me no great sense of loss.
+++
I see that the Euro Lottery has a nine-week rollover. I've not paid much attention to the mathematics of this, so forgive me if my numbers are wrong — the luxury of time for research is denied me just at the moment. But it seems as if you are getting 85m-to-1 on a 76m-to-1 shot. So, with such massive positive expected value, clearly we will all be putting all our wealth into the Euro lottery this week.
Well, no, we won't. Which is a good example of the marginal value of money and the significance of big numbers. Even with positive EV, the chance of the big win is minuscule, so you are hardly likely to place your entire wealth on a single roll of the dice. Bankroll management, you see.
So, what would be a sensible proportion of your wealth to put on the Euro lottery this week? Well, that depends on your marginal valuation of money, I guess. 1%? 5%? 10%? I have no easy answers here. For me the answer is 0%, simply because I can't be bothered. But it would be nice to know if there had been any rational research on this, rather than the cobblers spouted by most people on poker forums.
+++++
I went to the police station yesterday to give my witness statement and to sign in as potential evidence the mobile phone that I found in my non-stolen car (see Sunday blog). I typed out the statement beforehand but, of course, bureaucracy requires that a policeman then write out my typed statement by hand so that I can sign it. That's the way they do things, you see. Modern society? Impenetrable, mate.
How long before I can get out of here?
