Betting for value

Over the past six months there’s been an increased tendency for players to bet for value on the river. As far as I am concerned, this is all for the good. Knowing when to bet for value, when to check (and let your opponent, who has missed, try a bluff) and when to risk a check-raise are techniques that come with experience. I’m seeing a lot of “bets for value” that, as far as I am concerned, is money thrown away.

((For the non-poker cognoscenti out there, to “bet for value” on the river is to make a bet with a hand that is neither very good nor very weak, but which you think will make you more money on in the long run by betting than you would by checking. Pot Limit players find this one of the hardest parts of limit to master.)

However, it also set me wondering, after this hand, whether more might be made of this. In particular, if you are getting a significant number of bets for value, might we have reached a tipping point where you should raise for value or even check-raise for value? For a start, it blows up a lot of the “bet for value” mathematics. The usual principle with a bet for value is that your opponent will throw away (or occasionally raise with) garbage, raise with something brilliant, and call with all the hands that might be winning but might not. If your opponent starts raising on the river with hands that might be winning but might not, your bet for value begins to look less attractive.

( Here’s the hand that set me thinking. )