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Vicious Streak
Oct. 21st, 2006 12:03 pmIt's strange, but you look at your Excel Poker charts one morning and you say to yourself "Fuck me, I'm running bad, and I have been for a month". That's the thing about charts. Things often only become apparent with hindsight.
The major cause of this has been an inexplicable downturn at $2-$4. This could be down to me loosening up too much, or getting good cards that haven't hit flops, or getting bad cards that weren't worth seeing a flop, or any combination thereof.
It's been compensated for by a modest profit at $3-$6 and, of course, the bonus money. But this morning's $190 loss on Full Tilt at said $3-$6 finally gave the graph that undeniable look of "running bad, and have been for a month".
Since my only requirement on Full Tilt at the moment is to clock up 100 points a day, I got out fairly sharpish and moved to Ultimate, where I made $70 back. But it's tough going at the moment.
++++++
Sometimes you wonder to yourself, "how do these weak-tight donkeys keep going? Their plays are transparent, they see no more than 9% of flops, they only raise with Aces and their plays are so utterly consistent and transparent, they can't possibly get paid off".
Well, the answer, of course, is that occasionally you just get idiots out there who find it impossible to fold. There are fewer of them around and they will eventually go virtually extinct, which will leave the WTDs shuffling the money around in pots that never reach a level where rake is extracted. This will make the bonuses and rakebacks worth less per hand, and a kind of slow starvation will ensue.
But, like I say, here's an example why it can be so hard to win on a Saturday morning for me. Much of my profit is based on fold equity on the flop and turn, rather than the "big scores" with multi-wayers that come good. When you have no fold equity, positive EV plays can become negative EV (see excellent articles on this point by Sklansky, who notes that the semi-bluff isn't much use if your opponent never folds, and Feeney, who notes that a raise on the button loses a lot of its strength if the Big Blind never fails to defend).
Here's the kind of hand that you want to pick up on a Saturday morning. Usually in this kind of situation I will have either AK or AQs. Fortunately, this time I had a pair.
($3/$6 Hold'em)
GoosePA is at seat 0 with $104.75.
Tiny Riley is at seat 1 with $63.50.
DDCN is at seat 2 with $215.
Total Donkey is at seat 3 with $41.
stumpah2306 is at seat 4 with $237.25.
everynight is at seat 5 with $122.75.
Marley4Eva is at seat 6 with $100.50.
Hero is at seat 7 with $375.50.
NoWayyy is at seat 8 with $221.50.
Got_Da_Nutz is at seat 9 with $263.50.
The button is at seat 6.
Hero posts the small blind of $1.
NoWayyy posts the big blind of $3.
Hero: K◊ K♠
Pre-flop:
Got_Da_Nutz folds. GoosePA folds. Tiny Riley folds.
DDCN raises to $6. Total Donkey calls. stumpah2306
folds. everynight folds. Marley4Eva folds.
Hero re-raises to $9. NoWayyy folds. DDCN
calls. Total Donkey calls.
Total Donkey has already set out his stall as a complete idiot. I read little into his cold call of a raise.
Flop (board: T♠ J◊ 3♣):
Hero bets $3. DDCN folds. Total Donkey calls.
Turn (board: T♠ J◊ 3♣ 3♡):
Well, that eliminates any worries about JT. This is becoming remarkably similar to a hand I played at the Bellagio last December, where my opponent hit a two-outer to send me to the rail in despair after 14 hours' play. .
Hero bets $6. Total Donkey calls.
River (board: T♠ J◊ 3♣ 3♡ 8♠):
I refuse to fear any hand here apart from 88 or Q9 suited, and to be honest I don't think even this player would have cold-called with Q9s. I'm still betting.
Hero bets $6. Total Donkey calls.
Showdown:
Hero shows K◊ K♠.
Hero has K◊ K♠ J◊ 3♣ 3♡: two pair, kings and threes.
Total Donkey mucks cards.
(Total Donkey has T◊ 9◊.)
$3 is raked from a pot of $60.
Hero wins $57 with two pair, kings and threes.
Can anyone see any argument whatsoever for calling the turn here apart from the principle (more normally seen at $2-$4) that you automatically assume any raising hand to be AK and any reraising hand to be AKs until convinced otherwise (i.e., at showdown)?
Anyway, this is why the WTDs can keep going, because they don't raise with AK (preferring to wait for the flop) and only raise with substantial pairs. They then get paid off. I wasn't complaining, but, well, there's not much aesthetic satisfaction here, is there? All that you are looking for is (as at Bellagio) some ridiculous bad beat like a 10 coming on the river.
The major cause of this has been an inexplicable downturn at $2-$4. This could be down to me loosening up too much, or getting good cards that haven't hit flops, or getting bad cards that weren't worth seeing a flop, or any combination thereof.
It's been compensated for by a modest profit at $3-$6 and, of course, the bonus money. But this morning's $190 loss on Full Tilt at said $3-$6 finally gave the graph that undeniable look of "running bad, and have been for a month".
Since my only requirement on Full Tilt at the moment is to clock up 100 points a day, I got out fairly sharpish and moved to Ultimate, where I made $70 back. But it's tough going at the moment.
++++++
Sometimes you wonder to yourself, "how do these weak-tight donkeys keep going? Their plays are transparent, they see no more than 9% of flops, they only raise with Aces and their plays are so utterly consistent and transparent, they can't possibly get paid off".
Well, the answer, of course, is that occasionally you just get idiots out there who find it impossible to fold. There are fewer of them around and they will eventually go virtually extinct, which will leave the WTDs shuffling the money around in pots that never reach a level where rake is extracted. This will make the bonuses and rakebacks worth less per hand, and a kind of slow starvation will ensue.
But, like I say, here's an example why it can be so hard to win on a Saturday morning for me. Much of my profit is based on fold equity on the flop and turn, rather than the "big scores" with multi-wayers that come good. When you have no fold equity, positive EV plays can become negative EV (see excellent articles on this point by Sklansky, who notes that the semi-bluff isn't much use if your opponent never folds, and Feeney, who notes that a raise on the button loses a lot of its strength if the Big Blind never fails to defend).
Here's the kind of hand that you want to pick up on a Saturday morning. Usually in this kind of situation I will have either AK or AQs. Fortunately, this time I had a pair.
($3/$6 Hold'em)
GoosePA is at seat 0 with $104.75.
Tiny Riley is at seat 1 with $63.50.
DDCN is at seat 2 with $215.
Total Donkey is at seat 3 with $41.
stumpah2306 is at seat 4 with $237.25.
everynight is at seat 5 with $122.75.
Marley4Eva is at seat 6 with $100.50.
Hero is at seat 7 with $375.50.
NoWayyy is at seat 8 with $221.50.
Got_Da_Nutz is at seat 9 with $263.50.
The button is at seat 6.
Hero posts the small blind of $1.
NoWayyy posts the big blind of $3.
Hero: K◊ K♠
Pre-flop:
Got_Da_Nutz folds. GoosePA folds. Tiny Riley folds.
DDCN raises to $6. Total Donkey calls. stumpah2306
folds. everynight folds. Marley4Eva folds.
Hero re-raises to $9. NoWayyy folds. DDCN
calls. Total Donkey calls.
Total Donkey has already set out his stall as a complete idiot. I read little into his cold call of a raise.
Flop (board: T♠ J◊ 3♣):
Hero bets $3. DDCN folds. Total Donkey calls.
Turn (board: T♠ J◊ 3♣ 3♡):
Well, that eliminates any worries about JT. This is becoming remarkably similar to a hand I played at the Bellagio last December, where my opponent hit a two-outer to send me to the rail in despair after 14 hours' play. .
Hero bets $6. Total Donkey calls.
River (board: T♠ J◊ 3♣ 3♡ 8♠):
I refuse to fear any hand here apart from 88 or Q9 suited, and to be honest I don't think even this player would have cold-called with Q9s. I'm still betting.
Hero bets $6. Total Donkey calls.
Showdown:
Hero shows K◊ K♠.
Hero has K◊ K♠ J◊ 3♣ 3♡: two pair, kings and threes.
Total Donkey mucks cards.
(Total Donkey has T◊ 9◊.)
$3 is raked from a pot of $60.
Hero wins $57 with two pair, kings and threes.
Can anyone see any argument whatsoever for calling the turn here apart from the principle (more normally seen at $2-$4) that you automatically assume any raising hand to be AK and any reraising hand to be AKs until convinced otherwise (i.e., at showdown)?
Anyway, this is why the WTDs can keep going, because they don't raise with AK (preferring to wait for the flop) and only raise with substantial pairs. They then get paid off. I wasn't complaining, but, well, there's not much aesthetic satisfaction here, is there? All that you are looking for is (as at Bellagio) some ridiculous bad beat like a 10 coming on the river.
