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Full Tilt = Stress
Dec. 22nd, 2007 01:01 pmI don't know why it's happened, but my volatility has gone through the roof since December 7th. Only two days have had swings of less than $100 in total. Standard Deviation per session is a whopping $151.40. For the same period before that, the standard deviation per session was $74.28. Those numbers roughly reflect my own gut feelings -- i.e. that the per hour standard deviation has probably gone up from about $65 to around $130.
And, as one might expect, the upswings have been on the IP Network and the downswings have been on Full Tilt. I managed to drop 4.5 buy-ins in 90 minutes there this morning (on top of the buy-in in 20 minutes yesterday morning). I took note of the advice that people loved to make plays and that marginal calls were sometimes necessary, so decided that my KQ on the button on a board of QTx two of a suit was probably good against a laggy Big blind who had reraised me pre-flop (I included in his range two spades, JJ, KJs, plus assorted possible ragbags like AK with one spade, Q9, Q8, etc). So I continuation-betted and called his shove. He had AA. My bad. On the IP network I would have folded here without much hesitation, but, well, that's what it's like when you haven't got a handle on players' brains. You make mistakes.
Part of it was also slightly tilt-induced (although, looking at it, I still think that, unless my reads are way off, I am ahead of that guy's range late Friday night) and part of the problem is that I don't play on Full Tilt often enough. Indeed, I think that my performance there when I play most frequently (early afternoon East Coast time) is ok. It's just the late-night US players whom I play insufficiently often. The expected positive EV resulting from them being looser and there being the occasional nutter (although, when the money goes in, I haven't noticed much of that when I am on the receiving end) is more than counteracted by the fact that the game plays very differently from that which I am used to.
I frequently had this problem at limit on Paradise way back when. Although the games seemed far softer early Saturday morning UK time, I didn't seem to be getting the commensurate improved rate of return (and nearly all my big losses were early Saturday morning). I suspect that the reason was the same -- I wasn't in sync with my opponents' thought processes.
( continued )
And, as one might expect, the upswings have been on the IP Network and the downswings have been on Full Tilt. I managed to drop 4.5 buy-ins in 90 minutes there this morning (on top of the buy-in in 20 minutes yesterday morning). I took note of the advice that people loved to make plays and that marginal calls were sometimes necessary, so decided that my KQ on the button on a board of QTx two of a suit was probably good against a laggy Big blind who had reraised me pre-flop (I included in his range two spades, JJ, KJs, plus assorted possible ragbags like AK with one spade, Q9, Q8, etc). So I continuation-betted and called his shove. He had AA. My bad. On the IP network I would have folded here without much hesitation, but, well, that's what it's like when you haven't got a handle on players' brains. You make mistakes.
Part of it was also slightly tilt-induced (although, looking at it, I still think that, unless my reads are way off, I am ahead of that guy's range late Friday night) and part of the problem is that I don't play on Full Tilt often enough. Indeed, I think that my performance there when I play most frequently (early afternoon East Coast time) is ok. It's just the late-night US players whom I play insufficiently often. The expected positive EV resulting from them being looser and there being the occasional nutter (although, when the money goes in, I haven't noticed much of that when I am on the receiving end) is more than counteracted by the fact that the game plays very differently from that which I am used to.
I frequently had this problem at limit on Paradise way back when. Although the games seemed far softer early Saturday morning UK time, I didn't seem to be getting the commensurate improved rate of return (and nearly all my big losses were early Saturday morning). I suspect that the reason was the same -- I wasn't in sync with my opponents' thought processes.
( continued )
