![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Cool Runnings
Oct. 8th, 2009 12:41 pmI continue to run good. Indeed, it's getting weird. Last night I made a winner's tilt mistake, found myself a $200 buy-in down, and still managed to smooth-play my way to a $50 win for the session, just 70 minutes and 300 hands later.
The winner's tilt mistake looks so bad in retrospect I hesitate to recount it.
I raised with KQo in MP3 (nothing wrong so far) and Big Blind, a bit of a player who likes to make moves, called in the big blind.
Flop came QT9 rainbow and I CB'd for about 60% of the pot. He mini-raised me and, for reasons which I stil can't fathom, I decided that he was making a move. So I flat-called.
Why is this all wrong? Because, basically, players like villain don't make moves on this kind of board. They wait for things like J74 rainbow (or J74ds when they have a flush draw). Making a move with QT9 is bad for villain because there is a serious risk that they will walk into a real hand from original raiser (me).
Secondly, this is just the kind of flop where he would cold-call my raise and have hit his hand (say, 99 or TT or KJs)
So, that's fuck-up one.
Turn brings an Ace.
Then villain bets pot on the turn and I decide to shove (probably about a pot-raise) which he snap-calls and flips over TT for a set.
Staring at myself in disbelief, I hunkered down and, it seemed to me, won it back with little effort. I don't know what's going right, but I'm trying to keep it. I'm winning more on the river; I'm dodging bullets such as a man who turned his top pair into a backdoor flush and then checked to me on the river, and I actually had the confidence to throw in a float on a player at $2-$4. Opponent gave up on the river and folded to my pot-sized bet. $90 profit without even showing a card TYVM.
However, it occurred to me that I might be building up a problem for myself at a later date. Sometime later in the session (shortly after my bit of madness) I picked up QJs on the button and flat-called a laggy rasser. Flop came KQ8 and I flat-called villain's CB. Turn was a brick 3 or 4 and I flat-called the 75%-pot turn bet. River was another brick and villain checked. Since I have showdown value and we both still had a fair bit of cash, I checked behind. My queens were good.
But the point here is, if I check behind on the river when I have showdown value, then a pot-sized bet to a check by opponent on river indicates.... what? Well, you are probably ahead of me; it indicates almost total bollocks or a very strong hand. And a very strong hand is often unlikely to flat-call flop and turn, leading original bettor to conclude that either river really helped me (unlikely) or that I am floating (v likely). That means that before long I will get called down in these situations very thinly.
So, that seemed to lead to the uncomfortable situation where I have to bet on the river with hands that I would rather check down, and risk the check-raise.
This, though, leads to the further problem. Do I always call the check-raise? That's simple mathematics (although not as simple as the simplistic "of course you make the crying call, you only have to be right one time in five"). The simple question is, how often will the check-raise be a good hand and how often will it be an outright bluff? (I feel fairly safe in saying that nowhere below $5-$10NL would I see a river check-raise for value on a marginal hand -- although I quite like the idea!). At $200 buy-in, it's hard to see it being an outright bluff more than 10% of the time, and even then I could be fairly sure of nailing the players likely to try it and when they are likely to do it (desperate, drunk and tired at the weekend springs to mind).
But being scared of the check-raise is a leak. I have to keep reminding myself that nearly all of the time in the games that I play an action means what it says on the tin. So, sometimes it will be a tricky play, but when that happens you just have to shrug your shoulders and move on.
That doesn't always mean that you should bet when checked to on the river. What it does mean is that opponent is not likely to be lying when he checks. In many cases that will indicate a check-call, so it might be better to check behind. But I'm becoming more of a fan of thin bets for value on the river.
A typical example might be AJs on the button. You raise and get called in the big blind.
Flop is A95 rainbow. Villain checks, you bet, he calls.
Turn is a 4. He checks. You bet. He calls.
River is a 3. He checks. You both have considerably more left than is in the pot.
I think in the past I would nearly always have checked behind here, but now I am more minded to bet. You are likely going to be called by AQ, AT, A8, A7, A6, A5 and A2. Meanwhile the other Ace hands (AK and the 2-pairs) would require a certain degree of trickiness (bringing into play the Law of Restricted Choice). Two-pair would usually put in a value bet rather than check-raise the river.
I tried this yesterday, putting in a half-pot bet on the river with my AJ. I got called, and won. What did opponent have? A pair of fives.
Sure, you make yourself liable to villain "making a move", but most of these are multi-table regulars. They haven't got the time or inclination to make moves on the river.
A similar river situation crops up often. I know one opponent who will flat call raises on the button with any pair below Queens. He will then call opponent down on rag boards or boards with one bit of paint that is not a King or an Ace.
I got TT in MP2 in this situation and raised. Villain called on button.
Flop comes Q63ds. I bet half the pot. He calls.
Turn comes 4, no flush completion. I bet 75% of pot. he calls.
River comes 9, no flush completion.
Once again, in the past, I would have checked here, but if opponent is calling opponents down with any pair, I really ought to bet for value. I put in a 75% pot bet and he called me with 77.
In a fairly short timespan, these numbers add up. They aren't as important as the small decisions that you make all the time (such as knowing when to reraise from the blinds, when to flat-defend, and when to give up) but they can make a significant difference to your final hourly rate.
+++++++++++++++
I've booked an apartment in Nice for a week in November, which should offer opportunity to investigate places to the west (Cannes, Cagnes-sur-mer, Antibes) and possibly to the north.
I saw Lake Geneva when I was on my last flight back, although I only realized this when I got home and checked on the map. What I also saw was that the mountainous regions north of Nice are sparsely populated, but not unpopulated. With a car, it might be a nice area to investigate.
___________
The winner's tilt mistake looks so bad in retrospect I hesitate to recount it.
I raised with KQo in MP3 (nothing wrong so far) and Big Blind, a bit of a player who likes to make moves, called in the big blind.
Flop came QT9 rainbow and I CB'd for about 60% of the pot. He mini-raised me and, for reasons which I stil can't fathom, I decided that he was making a move. So I flat-called.
Why is this all wrong? Because, basically, players like villain don't make moves on this kind of board. They wait for things like J74 rainbow (or J74ds when they have a flush draw). Making a move with QT9 is bad for villain because there is a serious risk that they will walk into a real hand from original raiser (me).
Secondly, this is just the kind of flop where he would cold-call my raise and have hit his hand (say, 99 or TT or KJs)
So, that's fuck-up one.
Turn brings an Ace.
Then villain bets pot on the turn and I decide to shove (probably about a pot-raise) which he snap-calls and flips over TT for a set.
Staring at myself in disbelief, I hunkered down and, it seemed to me, won it back with little effort. I don't know what's going right, but I'm trying to keep it. I'm winning more on the river; I'm dodging bullets such as a man who turned his top pair into a backdoor flush and then checked to me on the river, and I actually had the confidence to throw in a float on a player at $2-$4. Opponent gave up on the river and folded to my pot-sized bet. $90 profit without even showing a card TYVM.
However, it occurred to me that I might be building up a problem for myself at a later date. Sometime later in the session (shortly after my bit of madness) I picked up QJs on the button and flat-called a laggy rasser. Flop came KQ8 and I flat-called villain's CB. Turn was a brick 3 or 4 and I flat-called the 75%-pot turn bet. River was another brick and villain checked. Since I have showdown value and we both still had a fair bit of cash, I checked behind. My queens were good.
But the point here is, if I check behind on the river when I have showdown value, then a pot-sized bet to a check by opponent on river indicates.... what? Well, you are probably ahead of me; it indicates almost total bollocks or a very strong hand. And a very strong hand is often unlikely to flat-call flop and turn, leading original bettor to conclude that either river really helped me (unlikely) or that I am floating (v likely). That means that before long I will get called down in these situations very thinly.
So, that seemed to lead to the uncomfortable situation where I have to bet on the river with hands that I would rather check down, and risk the check-raise.
This, though, leads to the further problem. Do I always call the check-raise? That's simple mathematics (although not as simple as the simplistic "of course you make the crying call, you only have to be right one time in five"). The simple question is, how often will the check-raise be a good hand and how often will it be an outright bluff? (I feel fairly safe in saying that nowhere below $5-$10NL would I see a river check-raise for value on a marginal hand -- although I quite like the idea!). At $200 buy-in, it's hard to see it being an outright bluff more than 10% of the time, and even then I could be fairly sure of nailing the players likely to try it and when they are likely to do it (desperate, drunk and tired at the weekend springs to mind).
But being scared of the check-raise is a leak. I have to keep reminding myself that nearly all of the time in the games that I play an action means what it says on the tin. So, sometimes it will be a tricky play, but when that happens you just have to shrug your shoulders and move on.
That doesn't always mean that you should bet when checked to on the river. What it does mean is that opponent is not likely to be lying when he checks. In many cases that will indicate a check-call, so it might be better to check behind. But I'm becoming more of a fan of thin bets for value on the river.
A typical example might be AJs on the button. You raise and get called in the big blind.
Flop is A95 rainbow. Villain checks, you bet, he calls.
Turn is a 4. He checks. You bet. He calls.
River is a 3. He checks. You both have considerably more left than is in the pot.
I think in the past I would nearly always have checked behind here, but now I am more minded to bet. You are likely going to be called by AQ, AT, A8, A7, A6, A5 and A2. Meanwhile the other Ace hands (AK and the 2-pairs) would require a certain degree of trickiness (bringing into play the Law of Restricted Choice). Two-pair would usually put in a value bet rather than check-raise the river.
I tried this yesterday, putting in a half-pot bet on the river with my AJ. I got called, and won. What did opponent have? A pair of fives.
Sure, you make yourself liable to villain "making a move", but most of these are multi-table regulars. They haven't got the time or inclination to make moves on the river.
A similar river situation crops up often. I know one opponent who will flat call raises on the button with any pair below Queens. He will then call opponent down on rag boards or boards with one bit of paint that is not a King or an Ace.
I got TT in MP2 in this situation and raised. Villain called on button.
Flop comes Q63ds. I bet half the pot. He calls.
Turn comes 4, no flush completion. I bet 75% of pot. he calls.
River comes 9, no flush completion.
Once again, in the past, I would have checked here, but if opponent is calling opponents down with any pair, I really ought to bet for value. I put in a 75% pot bet and he called me with 77.
In a fairly short timespan, these numbers add up. They aren't as important as the small decisions that you make all the time (such as knowing when to reraise from the blinds, when to flat-defend, and when to give up) but they can make a significant difference to your final hourly rate.
+++++++++++++++
I've booked an apartment in Nice for a week in November, which should offer opportunity to investigate places to the west (Cannes, Cagnes-sur-mer, Antibes) and possibly to the north.
I saw Lake Geneva when I was on my last flight back, although I only realized this when I got home and checked on the map. What I also saw was that the mountainous regions north of Nice are sparsely populated, but not unpopulated. With a car, it might be a nice area to investigate.
___________
