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The downswing continues -- the last 21 days on all sites show me to be down about $250 in some 28,000 hands, with an EV of plus $2,250. Still, it seems to be a general rule that all high-volume winningplayers have two bad months a year. With luck, mine will run from Oct 10th to Nov 7th.
Once again, I'd reiterate that the EV calculator is helping me here rather than hindering -- it's stopping me panicking, although I am reconsidering some plays.
The key at $1-$2 at the moment is how to beat tables where the VPIP% is about 16%, because there are so many tables that follow this pattern.
There's another typical pattern on Stars where 95% of hands follow these routes:
a) passed round to BB who gets a walk.
b) raise comes from player, wins pot uncontested.
c) raise comes from player, gets reraised, first raiser folds.
Now, the test here is to calculate ranges without ever seeing cards. It seems to me that a number of these players (the full-stacked ones) are something like 18/16. That gives their late raises a very wide range, probably 30% of all hands.
Depending on the size of the range (3x is dispiritingly standard these days -- I remember when pot was standard and we 3x raisers were oddballs), you can probably reraise with up to 20% of your hands on the button (if first raiser is in cut-off) and maybe 10% in small blind/big blind.
But, like I said, all of this is standard. The question is, how do you beat players who are following these rules?
Varying your bet size according to non-standard rules is one way. Playing about with your ranges is another way. But none of it is easy.
A "shock tactic" is the overshove. The theory is this. In these tight games, players gradually loosen their raising standards in late position. This means that the blinds gradually loosen their reraising standards to such raises. The "shock tactic" goes something like ... raise to 3.5BB in late ($7 in a $1-$2 game). Big Blind (assume a minimum of 50BB) reraises to $22 (11BB). Initial raiser now shoves for 100BB.
Shock tactics only work when only a few people are trying them, but I leave it to the reader to ponder what range might be profitable in the long run in the current $1-$2 full ring games on Stars, assuming 10 full stacks and all players playing 18% VPIP /16% Raise
__________
Once again, I'd reiterate that the EV calculator is helping me here rather than hindering -- it's stopping me panicking, although I am reconsidering some plays.
The key at $1-$2 at the moment is how to beat tables where the VPIP% is about 16%, because there are so many tables that follow this pattern.
There's another typical pattern on Stars where 95% of hands follow these routes:
a) passed round to BB who gets a walk.
b) raise comes from player, wins pot uncontested.
c) raise comes from player, gets reraised, first raiser folds.
Now, the test here is to calculate ranges without ever seeing cards. It seems to me that a number of these players (the full-stacked ones) are something like 18/16. That gives their late raises a very wide range, probably 30% of all hands.
Depending on the size of the range (3x is dispiritingly standard these days -- I remember when pot was standard and we 3x raisers were oddballs), you can probably reraise with up to 20% of your hands on the button (if first raiser is in cut-off) and maybe 10% in small blind/big blind.
But, like I said, all of this is standard. The question is, how do you beat players who are following these rules?
Varying your bet size according to non-standard rules is one way. Playing about with your ranges is another way. But none of it is easy.
A "shock tactic" is the overshove. The theory is this. In these tight games, players gradually loosen their raising standards in late position. This means that the blinds gradually loosen their reraising standards to such raises. The "shock tactic" goes something like ... raise to 3.5BB in late ($7 in a $1-$2 game). Big Blind (assume a minimum of 50BB) reraises to $22 (11BB). Initial raiser now shoves for 100BB.
Shock tactics only work when only a few people are trying them, but I leave it to the reader to ponder what range might be profitable in the long run in the current $1-$2 full ring games on Stars, assuming 10 full stacks and all players playing 18% VPIP /16% Raise
__________
