Feb. 4th, 2011

peterbirks: (Default)
It's so rare to see bad play on Stars these days that when it does happen you gaze on in near-disbelief.

$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, February 04,
Table Numidia X (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: zeka72 ( $37.05 USD )
Seat 2: lydia12345 ( $103.50 USD )
Seat 3: SetzerMason ( $100.00 USD )
Seat 4: Fish ( $19.90 USD )
Seat 5: Witz1708 ( $100.00 USD )
Seat 6: Hero ( $99.00 USD )
Seat 7: rancid26 ( $87.20 USD )
Seat 8: ChevCheIios ( $132.50 USD )
Seat 9: Mr.smith12 ( $100.00 USD )

Hero posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
rancid26 posts big blind [$1.00 USD].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ A◊; K♡;
ChevCheIios folds
Mr.smith12 folds
zeka72 raises [$3.00 USD]
lydia12345 folds
SetzerMason folds
Fish calls [$3.00 USD]
Witz1708 folds
Hero raises [$14.50 USD]

Fairly standard, although the short stacks make it easier. If the larger of the short stacks calls and the smaller stack folds, I'm probably committed to betting on any flop. If both call and I miss the flop, I can check because I have protection. If the larger stack folds to the reraise and the small stack comes in, then it's an effective all-in anyway.

Or so I thought.


rancid26 folds
zeka72 folds
Fish calls [$12.00 USD]

** Dealing Flop ** [ 3♡;, J◊;, 5♣; ]

Hero bets [$5.00 USD]
Fish folds!!!
Hero wins $5.00 USD
Hero wins $32.30 USD from main pot

Now, there is absolutely no hand in the universe where Fish's play pre/post flop can be correct here. None. If he has QJ off or something he should either fold to the reraise or shove. If he has a pair of deuces he should fold to the reraise but, if he calls, he can't fold the flop. Staggering.


+++++

I've had my normal horrible time on Full Tilt, and I've lost back about a grand of my profit, tempting me to up sticks back to Party. I should learn to stand up from the table when my Aces run into Kings early on in a session. Yesterday my failure to leave led me to make two mistakes which, though not egregious in terms of EV, just happened to run into the wrong hands and ended up me tilting off rather more cash than I would have liked.


$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, February 03, 01:03:03 ET 2011
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: Mihalych VRN ( $165.50 USD )
Seat 2: Hero ( $100.00 USD )
Seat 3: yourgin ( $100.00 USD )
Seat 4: shamil78 ( $76.10 USD )
Seat 5: masterGosha ( $182.30 USD )
Seat 6: krakenxix ( $112.15 USD )
Seat 7: Tramsz ( $163.00 USD )
Seat 8: Evilboii ( $36.40 USD )
Seat 9: P3t3Sampras ( $35.00 USD )
masterGosha posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
krakenxix posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ A♣; A♠ ]
Tramsz folds
Evilboii folds
Mihalych VRN folds
Hero raises [$3.00 USD]
yourgin folds
shamil78 folds
masterGosha folds
krakenxix raises [$9.00 USD]
Hero raises [$20.00 USD]
krakenxix raises [$102.15 USD]
Hero calls [$77.00 USD]
krakenxix shows [K◊;, K♣; ]
Hero shows [A♣;, A♠ ]
krakenxix wins $12.15 USD
** Dealing Flop ** [ K♡;, J♠, 7♡; ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6◊; ]
** Dealing River ** [ T♣; ]
krakenxix wins $197.50 USD from main pot

The day before my Kings had run into Aces, without a happy outcome. Full Tilt is definitely not my favourite place.

And so, off I went on my merry tiltathon.


$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, February 03, 01:22:33 ET 2011
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: soomer ( $101.50 USD )
Seat 2: FredFonk ( $102.65 USD )
Seat 3: Sebastokrator ( $54.75 USD )
Seat 4: Meep Corleone ( $46.00 USD )
Seat 5: Mindslaver3000 ( $120.50 USD )
Seat 6: Hero ( $106.65 USD )
Seat 7: allgor ( $239.25 USD )
Seat 8: AnyLord ( $111.40 USD )
Seat 9: gatto10 ( $214.55 USD )
gatto10 posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
soomer posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ K◊; Q◊; ]
FredFonk calls [$1.00 USD]
Mindslaver3000 folds
Hero raises [$3.00 USD]
allgor folds
AnyLord calls [$3.00 USD]
gatto10 folds
soomer folds
FredFonk calls [$2.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9◊;, 4◊;, Q♡; ]
FredFonk checks
Hero bets [$7.00 USD]
AnyLord folds
FredFonk raises [$99.65 USD]
Hero calls [$92.65 USD]

This is basically dreadful. $100 buy in players on Full Tilt on a Thursday afternoon are not up for massive overbet semi-bluffs. Thisguy as a set and is just shit-scared of a suck-out. Just because a good player would not raise this much with a set does not mean that a player who does raise this much does not have a set.

FredFonk shows [4♡;, 4♠ ]
Hero shows [K◊;, Q◊; ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2♣; ]
** Dealing River ** [ 3♣; ]

FredFonk wins $206.80 USD from main pot.

I'm actually 31% on this hand, btw, so villain's all-in bet is not absolutely woeful as the cards lie. But against my range, it's just too big.

It's one of the real pains of this game, working out the right-sized bet against an opponent who might be effectively drawing dead or might be be drawing very live. Most players err on the side of pessimism and make the "scared of a suck-out" sized bet, assuming the worst. But this follows the erroneous line followed by so many players -- that if there is a wet board, there must by definition be a draw out there. All a wet board does is make it more likely that there is a draw out there -- not the same thing at all when it comes to calculating bet sizes.




$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, February 03,
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: I0R3K58 ( $58.20 USD )
Seat 2: SpielMitMir_plz ( $206.05 USD )
Seat 3: THEWOBBLEMAN ( $101.50 USD )
Seat 4: withorr ( $100.00 USD )
Seat 5: uneedwater ( $100.00 USD )
Seat 6: Kalkdancer ( $35.85 USD )
Seat 7: A Kennusar ( $100.00 USD )
Seat 8: Hero ( $100.00 USD )
uneedwater posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Kalkdancer posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ A♣; A◊; ]
A Kennusar raises [$3.50 USD]
Hero calls [$3.50 USD]

With the increasing popularity of squeeze plays, a cold call behind with AA, KK and AK can offer a number of opportunities. It works best with laggy half-stack players sitting on the button or in one of the blinds. It also serves to "merge your range" with hands down to a pair of deuces, where you might want to cold call with the hope of getting a cheap flop (obviously the cold call with the small pair works better with larger stacks in later positions or in the blinds, and who do not tend to go for squeezes).

I0R3K58 folds
SpielMitMir_plz raises [$15.50 USD]
THEWOBBLEMAN folds
withorr raises [$30.00 USD]

Well, this is all going nicely.

uneedwater folds
Kalkdancer folds
A Kennusar folds
Hero raises [$96.50 USD]
SpielMitMir_plz folds
withorr calls [$70.00 USD]

Hero shows [A♣;, A◊; ]
withorr shows [K◊;, K♠ ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3◊;, 4◊;, 6♡; ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2◊; ]
** Dealing River ** [ J◊; ]
Hero wins $217.50 USD from main pot


Then came this hand.

$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, February 03, 02:07:28 ET 2011
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: LosinMksNoCents ( $100.00 USD )
Seat 2: SpielMitMir_plz ( $208.95 USD )
Seat 3: THEWOBBLEMAN ( $100.00 USD )
Seat 6: Kalkdancer ( $100.70 USD )
Seat 7: A Kennusar ( $101.50 USD )
Seat 8: Hero ( $207.00 USD )
Seat 9: Chopsticks43 ( $104.70 USD )
Kalkdancer posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
A Kennusar posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ J◊; J♠ ]
Hero raises [$3.00 USD]
Chopsticks43 folds
LosinMksNoCents folds
SpielMitMir_plz calls [$3.00 USD]
Kalkdancer folds
A Kennusar folds

I'll be honest here and say that I was playing cascading tables and was 11-tabling, which is a little bit beyond my limit at Full Tilt. I was also heading towards 90 minutes play, which is also towards my limit on Full Tilt. So I wasn't just still tilting, but I was also getting weary.

This led me to miss the most vital part of this hand -- stack sizes. Most times it wouldn't have mattered, but events conspired to make my mistake costly.

** Dealing Flop ** [ T♣;, J♡;, 6◊; ]

Hero bets [$4.00 USD]
SpielMitMir_plz raises [$12.00 USD]
Hero raises [$30.50 USD]

If the effective stack size was $100 or less (which, 95% of the time it would be, because most players leave if they get a double-through), this would be fine. But both I and my opponent are sitting on more than 200 big blinds, which makes this reraise to small. I should repop to $50 or $60.

SpielMitMir_plz calls [$22.50 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ A♣; ]
Hero bets [$169.50 USD]

This is a total tilto bet that falls into the classic trap of "the more I bet, the less likely it is that he has KQ or AA". Once again, most of the time he wouldn't have either of these holdings, but this was one of those hands where everything worked the wrong way.

SpielMitMir_plz calls [$169.50 USD]
Hero shows [J◊;, J♠ ]
SpielMitMir_plz shows [Q♡;, K♡; ]
** Dealing River ** [ Q♠ ]
SpielMitMir_plz wins $412.50 USD from main pot

And. of course, I still had the hope of the board pairing! (22%) No such luck.


I was carrying on in tilto mode and ballsed up this hand as well. But luck was on my side here.

$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, February 03, 01:10:02 ET 2011
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: JoeB_Sveabygda ( $55.55 USD )
Seat 2: Poor Mans Aces ( $131.70 USD )
Seat 3: Hero ( $101.65 USD )
Seat 4: maygiron07 ( $31.45 USD )
Seat 5: AnyLord ( $132.50 USD )
Seat 6: MEUHEADSUP ( $151.95 USD )
Seat 7: P3t3Sampras ( $35.00 USD )
Seat 8: AHefe ( $101.10 USD )
Seat 9: krakenxix ( $105.05 USD )
MEUHEADSUP posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
P3t3Sampras posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ T♡; T♠ ]
AHefe folds
krakenxix folds
JoeB_Sveabygda calls [$1.00 USD]
Poor Mans Aces folds
Hero raises [$3.00 USD]
maygiron07 folds
AnyLord folds
MEUHEADSUP folds
P3t3Sampras raises [$8.00 USD]
JoeB_Sveabygda calls [$8.00 USD]
Hero calls [$6.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7♡;, 8♡;, 6♡; ]
P3t3Sampras checks
JoeB_Sveabygda checks
Hero checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4♠ ]
P3t3Sampras checks
JoeB_Sveabygda bets [$5.00 USD]
Hero raises [$49.00 USD]

Dreadful. Dreadful.

P3t3Sampras folds
JoeB_Sveabygda calls [$41.55 USD]
Hero shows [T♡;, T♠ ]
JoeB_Sveabygda shows [4◊;, 4♡; ]
Hero wins $2.45 USD

** Dealing River ** [ K♡; ]

Hero wins $117.60 USD from main pot.

I was actually 30% on this hand, btw, so it wasn't an unbelievable suckout. But that doesn't excuse my bet, which made no sense at all.


So, that was me another $500 down for the month of February, on top of a $500 loss in January. Bad times.

I had a look at my graphs and stats and came to the conclusion that one possible way to rebalance my play was to attempt to boost my "red line" as it's called. This is basically the line that shows your loss (as it usually is) from non-showdown hands. I noted that I was still winning as much as I always had from showdown hands, but that I was losing a significant amount more from non-showdown hands -- which would indicate that I was getting three-bet rather more often these days, or that I was getting "floated" by players on the button, or check-raised a bit more often from the blinds on a rag board.

I'd adapted my strategy on the rag board and floating areas, but I took the decision to play while loking at my "daily" red line, and deliberately looking to push that northwards as soon as it was heading south a bit too sharply. In other words, the red line dictated my pre-flop and post-flop aggression.

Too soon to say whether it's working or not, because the inevitable alteration in my stats (up from 12%/10% to 14%/12%) has not yet been taken on board by my opponents. But it's certainly more exciting! Part of my problem of multi-tabling for extended periods is that I stop battling for pots sufficiently hard, tending towards a weak-tight style that's easy to exploit. By focusing on the red line, I push my own aggression beyond its comfort zone. For a player with my style, this is good. I aim to win lots of small relatively uncontested pots, while being willing to push it to the turn and even occasionally the river if someone tries to make a stand.


Anyway, back to $300 down on the month and $800 down on the year. Onwards and upwards.

Finally, many congrats to Keith "The Camel" Hawkins for chopping the $100 rebuy last night. Nearly as prestigious as HostDavidY's final table appearance (the second in a row?)

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August 2023

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