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Tough times
Mar. 1st, 2011 02:04 pmNo bonus at work, Timspons lose my shoes, Winkworth takes their management fee a month early and I can't win a carrot online. At least in three out of four of these I can comfort myself that I am not alone. Even the Wardster tweeted a few days ago that things had got so much tougher that he was going to cut down on the number of tournaments he played at a single time.
I'm about $1.5k down on the year so far, although if one books in the (unclaimed as yet) rakeback bonuses, it works out at about even-steven. But in open cash play the loss is about $2.5k and, for the first time, it looks to me to be a trend rather than bad luck.
However, there are odd things surrounding the whole downswing (which in itself isn't unusual -- I'd expect a couple of $1.5k drops each year). The first is that last month, despite 12-tabling, my EV on Stars was break-even. I just happened to run badly (to the tune of $750).
On Full Tilt I moved away from cascading to reduced-size tiling (eight on a single 24x20 monitor). I think that I'm about break-even there as well, although the style differs markedly from Stars (Full Tilt has a far higher proportion of non-believers, so you really need to hit your hand and overbet for value).
In February I deliberately adopted a more aggressive strategy that boiled down to a single principle. "If you are unsure whether to check or bet, then bet the pot". This certainly worked in boosting my red line (uncontested wins) from a year of minus 10bb per 100 hands to about minus 6bb per 100 hands. Unfortuntely my blue line (showdown winnings) decided to turn virtually flat from a historical average of 12bb to 15bb a 100 hands. Historically this has always been a short-term aberration, so I'm hoping that it will pick up again soon.
I certainly seem to have lost my fair share of coolers, which included a couple of set under sets within an hour for a total of minus $350, and a couple more later in the month.
More curiously, someone WITH a set of sevens under my set of kings (on an AK73 DS board!) declined to raise me on the turn when I put in my standard trap sized bet. He then failed to raise me on the brick river. This can't be right, but I guess he had been caught by a few set under sets himself and was running scared. I'm sure that he would have called a shove on the river, albeit with a heavy heart, so I left a wodge of cash on the table there. It just didn't occur to me that he could have a set.
Anyhoo, the long and short of all that is that my big loss for the year is on Party, which used to be the guaranteed moneyspinner. When I play there (unlike Full Tilt or Stars, which are constant battles and feelings of self doubt that I am not good enough) I feel confident that I am better than most of the opposition, so the losses on Party might indeed be a bit of a short-term bad run.
So, with all that put together, March is going to be a heavy-duty month, with cascading continuing on Stars (estimated hands, 30,000), plus 6-8 tabling on Party (5-6 100bb, 2-3 40bb, estimated hands, 12,500) and short-session medal maintenance on Full Tilt (8-tabling, probably no more than 4,500 hands). That clocks in at 50 hours on Stars, no more than 9-10 hours on Full Tilt, and probably 40 hours on Party.
Added to that will be quite a few freerolls, but I can play those while watching TV in the front room. Given the irritating factor that at the moment I am losing money, the freerolls (which I used to see as an unnecessary high opportunity cost, even if entry was free) are now more relevant. I need to go for a good result in one or two of them.
++++++++++
Not getting the bonus was a bit of a disappointment, even if it would have gone straight through to the mortgage. My newsletter did alright (about $200k operating gain after salaries but before indirect costs for those overcharging bastards not on the front line). The small team that I work in did alright (about £2.5m operating gain). The division did alright and the company did alright, but our team and one other team were lumped in with a team (which I have nothing to do with, TBH) that had an absolutely crap year. Net result, the numbers for that combination were not alright.
+++++++++
I'm still trying to work out how a shoe shop can lose a pair of expensive shoes, and I hope that they have turned up by the time I pop round again. Apparently there were temporary relief staff in Timpsons Lewisham last week, and the regular guy was back on Sunday, and no happy with the state of the shop. He said that he would phone the guy who served me (now back in Loughton, Essex) to see what the hell was going on.
_______________
I'm about $1.5k down on the year so far, although if one books in the (unclaimed as yet) rakeback bonuses, it works out at about even-steven. But in open cash play the loss is about $2.5k and, for the first time, it looks to me to be a trend rather than bad luck.
However, there are odd things surrounding the whole downswing (which in itself isn't unusual -- I'd expect a couple of $1.5k drops each year). The first is that last month, despite 12-tabling, my EV on Stars was break-even. I just happened to run badly (to the tune of $750).
On Full Tilt I moved away from cascading to reduced-size tiling (eight on a single 24x20 monitor). I think that I'm about break-even there as well, although the style differs markedly from Stars (Full Tilt has a far higher proportion of non-believers, so you really need to hit your hand and overbet for value).
In February I deliberately adopted a more aggressive strategy that boiled down to a single principle. "If you are unsure whether to check or bet, then bet the pot". This certainly worked in boosting my red line (uncontested wins) from a year of minus 10bb per 100 hands to about minus 6bb per 100 hands. Unfortuntely my blue line (showdown winnings) decided to turn virtually flat from a historical average of 12bb to 15bb a 100 hands. Historically this has always been a short-term aberration, so I'm hoping that it will pick up again soon.
I certainly seem to have lost my fair share of coolers, which included a couple of set under sets within an hour for a total of minus $350, and a couple more later in the month.
More curiously, someone WITH a set of sevens under my set of kings (on an AK73 DS board!) declined to raise me on the turn when I put in my standard trap sized bet. He then failed to raise me on the brick river. This can't be right, but I guess he had been caught by a few set under sets himself and was running scared. I'm sure that he would have called a shove on the river, albeit with a heavy heart, so I left a wodge of cash on the table there. It just didn't occur to me that he could have a set.
Anyhoo, the long and short of all that is that my big loss for the year is on Party, which used to be the guaranteed moneyspinner. When I play there (unlike Full Tilt or Stars, which are constant battles and feelings of self doubt that I am not good enough) I feel confident that I am better than most of the opposition, so the losses on Party might indeed be a bit of a short-term bad run.
So, with all that put together, March is going to be a heavy-duty month, with cascading continuing on Stars (estimated hands, 30,000), plus 6-8 tabling on Party (5-6 100bb, 2-3 40bb, estimated hands, 12,500) and short-session medal maintenance on Full Tilt (8-tabling, probably no more than 4,500 hands). That clocks in at 50 hours on Stars, no more than 9-10 hours on Full Tilt, and probably 40 hours on Party.
Added to that will be quite a few freerolls, but I can play those while watching TV in the front room. Given the irritating factor that at the moment I am losing money, the freerolls (which I used to see as an unnecessary high opportunity cost, even if entry was free) are now more relevant. I need to go for a good result in one or two of them.
++++++++++
Not getting the bonus was a bit of a disappointment, even if it would have gone straight through to the mortgage. My newsletter did alright (about $200k operating gain after salaries but before indirect costs for those overcharging bastards not on the front line). The small team that I work in did alright (about £2.5m operating gain). The division did alright and the company did alright, but our team and one other team were lumped in with a team (which I have nothing to do with, TBH) that had an absolutely crap year. Net result, the numbers for that combination were not alright.
+++++++++
I'm still trying to work out how a shoe shop can lose a pair of expensive shoes, and I hope that they have turned up by the time I pop round again. Apparently there were temporary relief staff in Timpsons Lewisham last week, and the regular guy was back on Sunday, and no happy with the state of the shop. He said that he would phone the guy who served me (now back in Loughton, Essex) to see what the hell was going on.
_______________
