Some Hands

Oct. 12th, 2007 01:54 pm
peterbirks: (Default)
[personal profile] peterbirks
A few of those hands that I mentioned yesterday. Sorry for the paucity of my comments.



: Texas Hold'em NL $0.50/$1.00

Seat 1: Hero ($70.15 in chips)
Seat 2: yangna ($58.25 in chips)
Seat 4: Bomber79 ($42.15 in chips)
Seat 5: KH01 ($46.30 in chips)
Seat 6: BotteLul ($97.95 in chips)
Seat 7: LC55LC ($103.35 in chips)
Seat 9: Ray80 ($63.75 in chips) DEALER
Seat 10: Papiniano ($197.65 in chips)
Papiniano: Post SB $0.50
Hero: Post BB $1.00

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Hero [A♡ A♣]
yangna: Fold
Bomber79: Fold
KH01: Fold
BotteLul: Raise $4.00 (9%/7%)
LC55LC: Raise $13.00 (20%/14%)
Ray80: Fold
Papiniano: Fold
Hero: Raise $45.00
BotteLul: Fold
LC55LC: Fold

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot $63.50 Rake $0.00
Hero: wins $63.50

Well, $18 is 18 x the big blind, which is above the average that I make with Aces. But the hand still left a feeling of vague dissatisfaction. That reraise has to be a big pair I think. So unless a K or a Q comes on the flop, I’ve got him strangled. Ugh, I’m still lost with these kinds of hands. For example, how do I play KK in this situation? And how does my play change if the opponents are more laggy?

+++++++++++++

Over to Party, which appears to be having all kinds of weird bonuses that I don’t understand, including one of either £35 or $35 for me for free, depending on which e-mail I believe.

$100 USD NL Texas Hold'em –
Table 127204 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: chainqian ( $101.68 USD )
Seat 2: Sup3rheftig ( $34.88 USD )
Seat 3: tjkglglfodlf ( $50.83 USD )
Seat 4: Lifflenger ( $188.85 USD )
Seat 9: praet123 ( $106.17 USD )
Seat 7: Hero ( $103.58 USD )
Seat 10: schweinefest ( $19 USD )
Seat 5: Kingsgard23 ( $19 USD )
schweinefest posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
chainqian posts big blind [$1 USD].


** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to Hero [ 9♠ J♠ ]
Sup3rheftig folds.
Lifflenger folds.
Kingsgard23 folds.
tjkglglfodlf has left the table.
Hero calls [$1 USD]

I have no idea why I did this – limps are not normally in my vocabulary. Perhaps I decided that I had a number of looseish-passive players behind me, so my fold equity was not that hot. Perhaps it was just a spur of the moment mix-it-up.

praet123 folds.
schweinefest folds.
chainqian raises [$3 USD] (37%/18%)
Hero calls [$3 USD]

** Dealing Flop ** [ 5♡, 4♣, J◊ ]

chainqian bets [$5 USD]
Hero raises [$10 USD]
chainqian calls [$5 USD]

** Dealing Turn ** [ 2◊ ]
chainqian checks.
Hero checks.
This is probably wrong. But it’s not so bad if opponent is liable to bluff AK if he misses on the river. Opponent seems just laggy enough to do this.


** Dealing River ** [ T♣ ]
tjyyzacc has joined the table.
chainqian bets [$20 USD]
Hero calls [$20 USD]

Once I’ve checked turn, this is an insta-call.

chainqian shows [ K♡, A♠ ]high card Ace.
Hero shows [ 9♠, J♠ ]a pair of Jacks.
Hero wins $65.50 USD from the main pot with a pair of Jacks.


++++++++++++++++

A hand that worked out nicely, illustrating that sets on a single-suit board in a non-nutty environment (i.e., during the day) can be big trouble.


$100 USD NL Texas Hold'em
Table Jackpot #1308787 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: ThangQuyXu ( $120.69 USD )
Seat 5: Hankman25 ( $139.91 USD )
Seat 6: DeMented7979 ( $213.19 USD )
Seat 7: Axzel_R ( $93.34 USD )
Seat 8: armitage99 ( $136.11 USD )
Seat 10: Dwizzor ( $109.60 USD )
Seat 3: Hero ( $97.40 USD )
Seat 4: Pissweak ( $83.73 USD )
Seat 2: MONTREAL13 ( $88.26 USD )
Seat 9: roach_ru ( $100 USD )
roach_ru posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Dwizzor posts big blind [$1 USD].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ A♠ 5♠ ]
ThangQuyXu calls [$1 USD]
MONTREAL13 folds.
Hero raises [$3 USD]

raises with these hands do okay provided you don’t have very aggressive players behind you. The good thing about $100 NL is that people are far more likely to defend to a raise than to reraise it. There’s a lot of “wait to see flop” mentality. May it long continue.

Pissweak folds.
Hankman25 folds.
DeMented7979 folds.
Axzel_R folds.
armitage99 folds.
roach_ru calls [$2.50 USD]
Dwizzor folds.
ThangQuyXu calls [$2 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7♠, 8♠, 4♠ ]

Dream Flop!

roach_ru checks.
ThangQuyXu bets [$6 USD]
Hero raises [$12 USD]

The mini-raise should send up warning signals, but opponents at this level still seem to misread it as a raise to get a free card. We aren't playing a tournament here, but many of the players seem to bring over a tournament mentality.

roach_ru folds.
ThangQuyXu raises [$30 USD]
Hero goes all-In.
ThangQuyXu calls [$58.40 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ K◊ ]
** Dealing River ** [ T♡ ]
ThangQuyXu shows [ 4♡, 4◊ ]three of a kind, Fours.
Hero shows [ A♠, 5♠ ]a flush, Ace high.

Opponent was not happy at this.



++++++++++

This was an irritating hand, mainly because opponent was horribly loose and I know that he would have paid me off if he hadn’t got lucky.

$100 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, October 10,
Table Jackpot #1308787 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: ThangQuyXu ( $117.08 USD )
Seat 2: nocturno ( $77.05 USD )
Seat 5: Hankman25 ( $109.70 USD )
Seat 6: DeMented7979 ( $213.38 USD )
Seat 7: Axzel_R ( $94.84 USD )
Seat 8: armitage99 ( $141.08 USD )
Seat 9: bunny999999 ( $34.74 USD )
Seat 10: Dwizzor ( $136.17 USD )
Seat 3: Hero ( $85 USD )
Seat 4: Pissweak ( $98.50 USD )
Hero posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Pissweak posts big blind [$1 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ A♣ K♠ ]
Hankman25 folds.
DeMented7979 folds.
Axzel_R folds.
armitage99 folds.
bunny999999 calls [$1 USD]
Dwizzor calls [$1 USD]
ThangQuyXu folds.
nocturno calls [$1 USD]
Hero raises [$7.50 USD]
Pissweak folds.
bunny999999 calls [$7 USD]
Dwizzor folds.
nocturno folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Q◊, K◊, 6♡ ]
Hero bets [$12 USD]
bunny999999 calls [$12 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6♣ ]
Hero bets [$15 USD]
bunny999999 is all-In.
** Dealing River ** [ 2♣ ]
Hero shows [ A♣, K♠ ]two pairs, Kings and Sixes.
bunny999999 shows [ 6◊, A◊ ]three of a kind, Sixes.
The time at which hand ended:Oct 10 2007 11:23 ET
Hero wins $0.26 USD from side pot #1 with two pairs, Kings and Sixes.
bunny999999 wins $68.98 USD from the main pot with three of a kind, Sixes.

lucky plucker he was there :-(


++++++++++++++++++++

And now a hand where I did manage to extract the maximum.

$100 USD NL Texas Hold'em
Table Table 127213 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: mugel82 ( $65.35 USD )
Seat 2: BulldogDavor ( $21.10 USD )
Seat 4: arguuu ( $40.35 USD )
Seat 5: Zico148 ( $58.15 USD )
Seat 7: Lucamiel ( $92 USD )
Seat 8: Pacofu ( $15 USD )
Seat 9: HolgerBartl ( $100.03 USD )
Seat 10: Arienne3000 ( $158.80 USD )
Seat 6: Hero ( $98.50 USD )
Seat 3: GundamMx ( $91.50 USD )
Zico148 posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$1 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 7◊ 7♠ ]
Lucamiel folds.
HolgerBartl folds.
Arienne3000 calls [$1 USD]
mugel82 raises [$3 USD]
BulldogDavor folds.
GundamMx folds.
arguuu calls [$3 USD]
Zico148 folds.
Hero calls [$2 USD]
Arienne3000 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7♣, K♡, 3♠ ]
>You have options at Table 127224 Table!.
>You have options at Table 127224 Table!.
Hero bets [$4 USD]

Personally, I think that this size of lead-out on this board stinks to high heaven, but opponents seem to fall for it.

mugel82 calls [$4 USD]
arguuu folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4♠ ]
Hero bets [$16 USD]
mugel82 calls [$16 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Q♠ ]
Hero bets [$42.50 USD]
mugel82 is all-In.
Hero shows [ 7◊, 7♠ ]three of a kind, Sevens.
mugel82 doesn't show [ K♠, A♡ ]a pair of Kings.
Hero wins $0.15 USD from side pot #1 with three of a kind, Sevens.
Hero wins $132.20 USD from the main pot with three of a kind, Sevens.
mugel82 has left the table.
#Game No : 6357537492


++++++++
Over at Pokerstars: I had only just sat down when this hand appeared. Did I fuck it up? I don’t know. It’s that old multi-wayer problem again.

HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/10/10 -
Table 'Alkeste IV' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Mardagg ($99 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero ($100 in chips)
Seat 3: smile large ($109.95 in chips)
Seat 4: KIZz_mAh_AZz ($95.50 in chips)
Seat 5: jsemple2311 ($42.20 in chips)
Seat 6: unkorreliert ($82.15 in chips)
Seat 7: fadlpoker ($33.85 in chips)
Seat 8: Chris198621 ($62.70 in chips)
mmoa was removed from the table for failing to post
Mardagg: posts small blind $0.50
Hero: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [6♣ 6♠]
smile large: calls $1
KIZz_mAh_AZz: raises $4 to $5 (this guy is tight. This is a big hand).
jsemple2311: calls $5 (this guy is even tighter. I suspect that this is also a big hand, although he might be thinking that he is getting odds for his medium pair)
unkorreliert: folds
fadlpoker: folds
Chris198621: folds
Mardagg: folds
Hero: calls $4
(After all, I’m calling with my smallish pair....)
smile large: calls $4
*** FLOP *** [6♡ 5♠ 9♠]

So, I hit my set. Time for the lead-out that seems to fool people at this level.

Hero: bets $4
smile large: calls $4
KIZz_mAh_AZz: raises $11 to $15
jsemple2311: folds
Hero: raises $80 to $95 and is all-in

The so-called “value-shove”.

smile large: folds
KIZz_mAh_AZz: folds

and it didn’t work


Hero collected $51.85 from pot
Hero: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $54.50 | Rake $2.65
Board [6♡ 5♠ 9♠]
Seat 1: Mardagg (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: Hero (big blind) collected ($51.85)
Seat 3: smile large folded on the Flop
Seat 4: KIZz_mAh_AZz folded on the Flop
Seat 5: jsemple2311 folded on the Flop
Seat 6: unkorreliert folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: fadlpoker folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Chris198621 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Should I reraise less? Well, it all depends on how often, empirically, opponents will call with a hand that isn’t beating me. Effectively, I want to win on average more than I would lose for the hands where I miss my seet and fold like a lamb. So I’m really looking for $35-plus. With $16 going in pre-flop and $19 going in on the flop, I win just about that amount if my reraise takes it down uncontested. But I really feel that I should be able to make more from this hand.

+++++++++

Another hand that was a bit irritating. But the guy’s check at the end is bemusing. Does he think I’ll bet a lower full house for value?

HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/10/09
Table 'Orestes II' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: Dufman79 ($96.35 in chips)
Seat 3: crazycon4 ($54.85 in chips)
Seat 4: exing ($41.35 in chips)
Seat 5: Vzcouver ($195.05 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero ($114.15 in chips)
Seat 7: bullyjohnson ($178.55 in chips)
Seat 8: Paaapaa ($100.80 in chips)
Seat 9: luckyBabe1 ($96.50 in chips)
Dufman79: posts small blind $0.50
Stefan Hurry: is sitting out
crazycon4: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [9♣ 8♣]
exing: calls $1
Stefan Hurry leaves the table
Vzcouver: folds
Hero: raises $2 to $3
bullyjohnson: folds
Paaapaa: folds
luckyBabe1: folds
Do-Man22 joins the table at seat #2
Dufman79: folds
crazycon4: folds
exing: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [6♣ A◊ K♣]
exing: checks
Hero: bets $5.50
exing: calls $5.50
*** TURN *** [6♣ A◊ K♣] [A♣]
exing: checks
Hero: bets $14
exing: calls $14
*** RIVER *** [6♣ A◊ K♣ A♣] [6♠]
exing: checks
Hero: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
exing: shows [A♡ 2♡] (a full house, Aces full of Sixes)
Hero: mucks hand
exing collected $44.25 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $46.50 | Rake $2.25
Board [6♣ A◊ K♣ A♣ 6♠]
Seat 1: Dufman79 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: crazycon4 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: exing showed [A♡ 2♡] and won ($44.25) with a full house, Aces full of Sixes
Seat 5: Vzcouver folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Hero mucked [9♣ 8♣]
Seat 7: bullyjohnson folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Paaapaa folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: luckyBabe1 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)


++++++++++++

And, a return to IP Poker, where I’m outplaying the opposition, but not running that well. Here’s another one where all went according to plan and my EV was excellent. One day my luck will run at this site and my real dollars will be excellent too.

Texas Hold'em NL $0.50/$1.00 2007-10-10
Table Esperanza
Seat 1: tauxan ($118.27 in chips)
Seat 2: Orbatos ($100.30 in chips)
Seat 4: Sw010 ($98.50 in chips)
Seat 5: raisinman1 ($67.34 in chips)
Seat 6: satrapa ($114.50 in chips) DEALER
Seat 7: Hero ($105.10 in chips)
Seat 9: mieheandro ($144.65 in chips)
Seat 10: oxfordboy ($34.60 in chips)
Hero: Post SB $0.50
mieheandro: Post BB $1.00
raisinman1: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to oxfordboy [T♣ A♣]
Dealt to Hero [2♠ 2♡]
Dealt to raisinman1 [4◊ A◊]
oxfordboy: Call $1.00
tauxan: Call $1.00
Orbatos: Fold
Sw010: Fold
raisinman1: Check
satrapa: Fold
Hero: Call $0.50
mieheandro: Check
*** FLOP *** [T♡ 2◊ 6◊]
Hero: Bet $2.00
mieheandro: Fold
oxfordboy: Raise $4.00
tauxan: Fold
raisinman1: Call $4.00
Hero: Raise $10.00
oxfordboy: Allin $29.60
raisinman1: Call $29.60
Hero: Raise $92.10
raisinman1: Allin $32.74
*** TURN *** [Q♣]
*** RIVER *** [5◊]
*** SUMMARY ***
raisinman1: wins $168.28


To McGauchos this evening. Excellent.

Just out of pure ignorance

Date: 2007-10-13 02:05 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] real-aardvark.livejournal.com
I follow the point about mini-raises, and I'm not qualified to make a comment on ThangQuyXu's $30 raise, which I'm assuming is an automatic "Hell, I hit a set!" bet. But surely he's dead in the water when you go all-in? I mean, that's a terrible flop for anything except what you've got. I guess, starting from a suited 78, you might just possibly be aggressive ... but surely not that aggressive. And ThangQuyXu hasn't even made the medium or high set on the flop.

Is this just a case of ball-watching, or am I going insane? And do you get to choose your opponents on that site? Because he looks pretty ripe to me.

Re: Just out of pure ignorance

Date: 2007-10-13 02:19 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] real-aardvark.livejournal.com
Actually, just one more meta-gaming thought.

Does it matter to you what monikers the opponents choose? There's a sprinkling of what look to me like patsies in the above -- "LuckyBabe1," "Paaapaa," "oxfordboy," or indeed the all-purpose drunken gambling vietnamese chinaman "ThangQuyXu." I wonder how far one could correlate the name to competency?

Of course, there's always meta-meta-gaming. In which case I suggest you change your on-line persona from "Hero" to something that doesn't advertise you as a meta-gamer being intentionally disingenuous.

(And before anybody comments on Birks' actual on-line name: yes, I know...)

Re: Just out of pure ignorance

Date: 2007-10-13 03:47 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peterbirks.livejournal.com
Yes, there are certain names that I link to certain styles of play. The general rule (which has many exceptions) is that players tend to tell the truth. Someone who calls himself "HellmuthBoy" is not going to think that Hellmuth is a twat. Someone who calls himself "bullyjohnson" (see above) is unlikely to be loose-passive. Even "Pissweak" (see above) would tend to indicate a guy who is not confident about winning.

There are exceptions, but as a default, it's not a bad assumption to assume that a self-describer is saying some approximation to a true self-assessment.

PJ

Re: Just out of pure ignorance

Date: 2007-10-13 04:28 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] real-aardvark.livejournal.com
Actually, I was convinced that "Pissweak" was anonymised, in the style of "Hero" and "Villain." It makes more sense that way, in a report of a hand.

What sort of spineless masochist would name themselves that way and then advertise the fact in a money game? Unless, as I say, they're meta-gaming, and actually hugely confident. In which case it's even more embarrassing when they're proved wrong.

Let's be honest, I've never been comfortable with anything off the first derivative of a function. Which is probably why I never went into the City.

Re: Just out of pure ignorance

Date: 2007-10-13 03:43 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peterbirks.livejournal.com

First, we shall assume Thangy is vaguely competent (and, since, this was a day-time game, this is my default assumption).

When I mini-raise, ThangQuyXu puts me on a range of hands. In other words, he says to himself (subconsciously more than consciously), "what kind of hands would Birks mini-raise with here?"

He might say to himself "Well, he might raise with AKo and the Ace of spades. He would raise with any set, he would raise with any made flush. he would raise with any made straight. He wmight rasei with KK and the kinf og spades, he might raise with QQ and the queen of spades. He might raise with any overpair".

So, Thangy continues, "that's a fair range of hands he might raise with. Let's eliminate a few of these because of his preflop raise. He's unlikley to have a made straight unless he is suited, and even then he might fold or limp with a suited connector in earlyish position. He might have raised with 88 or 77, but he might have limped with those as well. His raise makes an overpair with a draw to a flush the most likely hand. and I'm two-t-one favourite against that. If he's got an overpair with no spades, I'm nearly 9-to-1 favourite. If he has a made flush, I'm only a two-to-one underdog. The only hands that I'm a big dog against are 88 or 77."

"Combining all these together, I reckon that I'm favourite. If he's AA with the ace of spades, I have to make him pay. I'm reraising."


Now, once I rereraise, he probably knows that he isn't favourite, but he can't fold, because, even if he is the underdog, calling is mathematically better than folding.

So, in a sense, I agree with you, he hasn't played it brilliantly, but, given his assumptions on my range, he hasn't played it terribly.

Where the line falls down is if his assumption as to my range is wrong. Would I raise here with AsAd? Probably not.

Now, obviously he doesn't have time to compute all of this, but that would be his post-analysis rationale.

Now, let's assume that the guy isn't that competent, but has some kind of crib-sheet. This sheet tells him that sets in no limit are gold dust, that they are where you make most of your profit. He doesn't even think about my range or the board. He just sees the set on the flop, and that's good enough for him. ALL IN!

However, you raise an intersting point. "Stack-offs" for a reasonable amount are incredibly rare in daytime games. Most of the ones I have seen in the past week have been set over set, flush over flush (both people having two of the suit in their hand) or flush over set on the flop.

However, it's horribly hard to lay down a set and, more importantly, by the time that you think it is probably losing, it's too late for you to fold.

None of this applies late at night, when the range of opposing players' hands widens considerably, and when you flop a set, getting all your money in as fast as possible is definitely the right thing to do.

PJ

Re: Just out of pure ignorance

Date: 2007-10-13 05:02 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] real-aardvark.livejournal.com
Well, this is obviously where I fall down. Or it's the most obvious point where I fall down.

I'd got around 80% - 90% of your argument on the raise (and of course, as you say, this ignores the danger element of a mini-raise, which surely cuts out some of those possibilities). I even understand (roughly) the balance between limping and raising with, say, 77 or 88 (and btw, what are your current stats there?). I don't see a problem with him raising $30 -- it's 50% on the pot and almost certainly much better than that against his only opponent.

Where I think it's obvious that I don't have a "poker brain" is on Wild Thang's call of your re-raise. This seems wrong on the assumption that he has mis-read your range, sure. But it also seems wrong in principle. Yes, you're throwing $60 into a $120 pot, which is good odds if you've got a 33% chance, but as far as I can see he's got no chance at all, unless you're bluffing -- unless he hits a full house on the remaining cards, of course.

At this point, naively, I would place you with either a flush or a higher set. With no crib-sheet, I'd place all three possibilities at roughly evens. (Although, bugger me, I wouldn't have followed your betting pattern so far with a pair 7s or a pair 8s. Ignorance, again.) A flush kills against a set without hitting the full house, and a higher set kills without hitting and kills if the pair hits the flop. Given that his set is in-hand, as far as I can see this means that he's dead unless you have a flush and he draws to the full-house. Doesn't look like good odds to me. Certainly doesn't look like a 33% bet.

(Although it would have been much more interesting for him with a set of 7s...)

I think the basic problem -- apart from ignorance -- that I have is to understand the mentality of the re-raise and equivalent levels of betting. I understand the "bet the pot, not the player" mentality. What I don't understand is the "You've got to bet here: that's what your previous bets were all for" mentality. And I'm almost certainly confused here, too.

Clearly, of course, there is the concept of "sunk money," which bedevils 99% of failed software projects -- in many of which I have been involved -- and no doubt several thousand poker games. I'm sure there's a distinction here. I'm just missing it.

BTW I'm damn sure that ThangQuyXu was of the "Woo-hoo! Made set!" persuasion, although I admit that the twit ratio in day games is likely to be hugely lower than the twit ratio in games played for "social" reasons in the evening. Globalisation might even change this, though. Let's face it, a day game for you is a 3am narcotic-fuelled rolling nightmare for a bloke in North Korea who has to pay off the border guards to escape the secret police.

Might be worth compiling stats on how people with Chinese monikers play. They could be good, they could be bad, but I'm damn sure that they're culturally very different.

Re: Just out of pure ignorance

Date: 2007-10-13 06:15 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peterbirks.livejournal.com
"Given that his set is in-hand, as far as I can see this means that he's dead unless you have a flush and he draws to the full-house. Doesn't look like good odds to me. Certainly doesn't look like a 33% bet."

Umm, it's a while since I worked this out manually, so forgive me if I go a bit wrong. His chance of NOT hitting the full house (assuming that I have flopped the flush) is:


38/45 (the 45 cards remaining in the deck less the one remaining four, three sevens and three eights) times 35/44 (if the turn does not pair the board, there are 10 cards that pair the board on the river -- thee sevens, three eights, the remaining four, and three of whatever card appears on the turn).

38/45 x 35/44 = 1330/1980 = 67.2%.

Therefore you have about a 32.8% chance of the set that faces a flush sucking out to win it.

In fact his odds are slightly worse than this because I have a draw for a straight flush. One time in 44 that he hits his house, the other card will be the six of spades, and he still loses. That reduces his chances to about 32.2% I think.

The main thing is, though, that if you have a flopped set (top, middle, or bottom) and given the range of hands that people in general are willing to bet, then all of your money is going to go in. Sometimes you hit a flopped flush against you and fail to suck out, but in the long run. empirically, at the moment, getting all your money in with a flopped set is positive EV.

Now, if players in general only bet like this with hands that beat bottom set, then this would not be the case. But, at the moment, they don't. Not even during the day.

PJ

PJ

Re: Just out of pure ignorance

Date: 2007-10-14 03:50 am (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
The chance of a flopped set improving to a boat or quads is so close to 1/3 that it should just be memorised.

Suppose you flop a set then you can see 5 cards. Seven turn cards improve your hand, and if you blank then ten river cards will. So the chance of missing both is 40/47 * 36/46 = 0.666+

You're right here that your straight flush gutshot means he's a shade worse but its not a big deal. I don't think he misplayed it post-flop particularly - just ran into the nuts.

His real error was limp-calling 44 from UTG. Passively seeing relatively expensive flops out of position with small pairs maximises your chances of hitting set under set. When sages remark that set under set is very rare, or that a set is a very strong hand, they're implicitly assuming that people are playing "correctly" and not seeing a flop with any pair, no matter how small, from early position.

matt

August 2023

S M T W T F S
  12345
6789101112
13 14151617 1819
20 212223242526
27282930 31  

Most Popular Tags

Style Credit

Expand Cut Tags

No cut tags
Page generated Jul. 27th, 2025 11:08 pm
Powered by Dreamwidth Studios