Thoughts On A General Election: Week 1

[peterbirks]

It's all very surreal. In the weeks, nay, months, leading up to the Conservatives finally conning Labour into going for an election, the situation a week previously often seemed like ancient history. And yet now, with an election only a few weeks away, we seem to have entered a sort of stasis. Sure, there have been changes in a micro level, but nothing epoch-forming. Elections, it appears, still run down well-worn tracks according to well-tried rules; unlike the rest of British politics, where a Prime Minister who has lost more votes than he has won in parliament can run straight-facedly on a platform of "getting things done".

I should say that I don't lack sympathy for the Labour position in accepting a General Election. It was plain that the country was moving behind the idea of one and was getting frustrated at a parliament that had proved itself adept at stopping things but rather poor at getting stuff done. It was a bit of a Lose-Lose.

There was probably a hope amongst the faithful (and this is one of the dangers of living in an echo chamber) that the election would be "about" stuff other than Brexit. Well, good luck on that one. But there is a second point. This is not "sensible" May with "sensible" Hammond. It's "I'll promise anything" Johnson, backed up by "deficit spending is the way forward" Javid. In this sense, the lines about "14m in poverty" or "the NHS is under threat, we must defend it", find their force reduced when the other side is "we are going to spend lots of money".

But, for all that, for all the resignations and decisions not to run, or decisions to run as an Independent, or decisions to consider perhaps running as an independent, for all the pacts, nothing has really moved on dramatically since the day before the election was called.

Well, that isn't *quite* true. My spreadsheet might continue to have the SNP set for 50 seats, but the Conservatives have been creeping up and the Labour Party has been creeping down. The LibDems had an early spurt on Betfair, but have since fallen back. On my spreadsheet, it's been a steady decline, from a predicted 48 seats to, now, a very modest 39.

Now, that might change. The LibDem position in terms of seat numbers varies quite considerably, even if their own vote stays on 18%, according to the distribution of the vote between the Conservatives and Labour. Its "decline" in week one has not been due to a falling off in its own support, but in the increase in Conservative support and fall in labour support.

Put bluntly, the seats it fails to win because of an increase in Tory popularity is not compensated for by a fall in Labour popularity (the benefits in the latter case fall to the Conservatives and the Brexit Party). In that sense, seats such as Old Bermondsey And Southwark (where the LibDems are fighting the Labour Party) are thin on the ground.

Now, one very interesting result from the recent polls has been a nationwide pick-up in the Green Party vote. It probably won't win them an extra seat this time round, but it will give them a platform (and one which the LibDems need to be looking at closely). If I might call it the "Blue Planet" effect, we could be looking at a 7% vote nationwide for the Green Party. And this isn't an organic brussels sprout for Christmas vote. It's not restricted to yer Brighton Greenies Extinction Rebellion types. This is a much wider demographic. Is it down to Greta Thurnberg? Is it down to David Attenborough? Or is it just that a tipping point has been reached and you are no longer consider a vegan nutcase if you start talikng about carbon footprints and global emissions and the world slowly getting warmer?

It's easy to roll out the old lines about what's wrong with the Greens. Don't bother, they've been heard many times and there is much truth in many of them. But that doesn't matter. If even 5% of "ordinary" people are moving over to that line of thought, its clear that rehashing those old lines of argument have not worked in the past and, therefore, won't work in the future. better to bring the Green-movement onside and to isolate the loonies than to tar them all with the same brush.

I still see TBP as having a significant chance in five seats: Both the Barnsleys, Burnley, Hartlepool and Rotherham.

I currently have the LibDems taking 18 seats from the Conservatives, and six from Labour.

The SNP's gains are fairly evenly distributed - eight from Cons and six from Lab (but none from LibDem).

My spreadsheet does not at the moment give Plaid Cymru more than the four seats they hold -- but my methodology is not set up for Wales, and my gut instinct is that they might get up to five. That will require some seat-by-seat analysis (for which, TBH, I don't really have the time or inclination at the moment).

On running poll of Con 37, Lab 26, LibDem 17, TBP 11, SNP 4, Green 4

I get 337 Con, 195 Lab, 3 TBP, 39 LibDem, 50 SNP, 4 PC, 1 Green, 1 Speaker.

Bets this week, hedged out my bets on TBP total vote to guarantee a small win no matter what.

Bets on SNP to win Dumfries (@2.75) East Lothian (@1.91) East Renfrewshire (@2.0) and Gordon (@1.91)