Back to the poker question

[peterbirks]

The story so far. It's heading towards the prize money stage of a tourney and your hero is relatively short-stacked. He gets dealt Aces and two people fold before him. Plan the play.

Woody said raise, while miserable git suggested a rase of 3BBs (equal to half my stack).

I'm afraid that I had only considered three options; call, raise 1BB (600) or go all-in (3645). As Mike comments, the 3B raise of 1800 seems to me to get most of the disadvantages of an all-in raise and hardly any of the advantages.

Anyway, if I raise, I win the pot there and then. I don't get a caller. Result, plus 1350.

I reckon that if I flat-call there is about a 20% chance I will be raised all in behind me (or by the SB/BB). That's the ideal scenario. I get my Double through an average of 60% of the time. EV = + 2600

There is about a 30% chance that I will be called by one player behind me. My EV probably falls to about +2200

And there is a half-chance that everyone will fold behind me. EV about + 1500. That gets me something like an EV of 1950 through a call compared to something like 1600 to an all-in raise. But all these are guesstimates.

There is a strong argument for the small raise, particularly with my small stack. It looks a little like a cheap attempt to get the blinds and antes.


Anyway, I call, and everyone folds round to the BB, who checks.

The flop comes QJ3 two spades. I have the Ace of Spades and the Ace of clubs.

There is now 2175 in the pot and I have 3045 in chips.

The Big BLind (who has 7000 in chips) checks.

Do I (a) check
(b) bet part of my stack
(c) Go all-in?

Comments

[jellymillion.livejournal.com]

Right now, disregarding the unlikely, unknowable and frankly unthinkable two pair, we're still good to go for chip extraction. Ill try to think this through as I go, all the while wishing my post-flop play was better (there's a good reason I'm most profitable at Party S&Gs, you know).

We need to misdirect Johnny BB to a sufficient extent that he is prepared to invest, either because he thinks he's winning or because he thinks we can be made to lay down if he represents strength. Oh dear, I'm not very good at this. What sort of hand should we be representing and how would we play if we had it? Mid-pair or a non-nut flush draw might sell it.

The problem as I see it is the less-than-evens chance that the flop has hit BB. Which means an all-in is most likely to get a fold.

A small (half pot? one or two thirds?) bet could have a similar result. If he's hit something then we could get a call or raise, the latter likely to be putting us all-in. Which would be nice.

What about checking? We only called pre-flop, which ought to have him putting us on a broad range of hands. Might he make a play for it? If so, can we call without screaming strength?

Headache. By now I'd be automatically timed out and checked.

I think I'd bet 750-1000. I'm hoping to be seen as probing for information, which a decent player may see as an opportunity to come over the top. I think a check looks too much like a possible trap. Which would mean he'd probably only play back at us with better than a pair. Which would be bad.

Time for bed, said Zebedee.