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[personal profile] peterbirks
I see that some of our more right-wing friends in the press have criticized Tony Blair for visiting the Iraqi troops tie-less and with a hand in his pocket. Having seen said pictures, I suspect that yourr average British Tommy would not be too concerned that the PM had turned up not wearing a tie, or that he put his hand in his jacket pocket at some point. Some ex-brigadier might think it a disgrace, but not for nothing was the phrase coined in the First World War: "Lions led by donkeys".

Personally, I was rather more affronted by the colour of Tony's shirt, which made it look as if he had rushed to Iraq from his night shift at PC World.

+++++++++++++++++

I'm not sure where all the Icelandic maniacs have come from, but they seem to be buying up anything and everything. If they insist on doing this, it would be nice if they got a bit more variety in their names. Eggert Magnusson is the latest entrepreneur looking to burn money -- this time on West Ham. Another Magnusson? Were all their fathers called Magnus? I mean, Magnus Magnusson, that's okay. He could have a kid called Magnus Magnussonson. But Eggert Magnusson? Where are all the Eggertsons? And surely there should be some Elvissons floating around these days?

++++++++++++++++

It's not often that senior people allegedly involved in Nigerian 419 scams are brought to court, but one Hiro Bhojwani, CEO of Shankar Emporium in Singapore, will be taking the stand today, although his company is claiming complete innocence in the affair. Shankar sent many many goods to Nigeria and took $1.15m via a third-party remittance from a retired Italian banker now based in Switzerland. Unfortunately, the third-party remittance was nothing of the kind, it was money from an Italian who had fallen for the 419 scam. The Italian is suing for the return of the money, while Shankar said that it accepted the cash as payment that was due for goods it had supplied to Nigerian customers.

At one's kindest, one could call Shankar naive, but history shows that they had no cause for naivety. In June 2004 the US government obtained a court order freezing the funds in Shankar's bank account in the US after fraud was detected in connection with third-party remittances. The lawyers for the Italian victim claim that Shankar was well aware that the third-party remittance system for Nigerian customers was riddled with fraud, although they have not gone so far as to claim that Shankar was an active participant. The claim would appear to be that Shankar knowingly converted 419 cash into goods which it sent to Nigeria.

Shankar has said that the Singapore Commercial Affairs Department had found Shankar's third-party remittance system to be "appropriate", which makes on wonder more about the Singapore Commercial Affairs Department than anything else.

It will be interesting to see what Hiro Bjojwani has to say for himself when he takes the stand, and whether he will be willing to reveal the name of his customers in Nigeria who received the goods paid for by a rather stupid Italian banker.

Oh, and Shankar's is based in High Street Plaza, if you happen to be in Singapore. I don't recommend popping in there and asking whether they have any satisfied customers from West Africa.

+++++++++++++


Some threads in 2+2 are cropping up from players saying "I used to be a winner but...."

It seems to me that these are typically the tight-passive kind of players who relied on loose-passive opponents. The tight-passive players would rarely raise pre-flop, waiting to see if they hit, and then relying on getting paid off. Once they stop getting paid off, their lack of aggression pre-flop becomes a serious weakness, because other (better) players are willing to push their thinner edge pre-flop.

However, it seems a distinct indication that the ring game at lower levels has changed.

I should be able to do some stats on this, looking to see what percentage of hands are raised pre-flop, what percentage of hands are multi-way on the flop, and what percentage of hands go to a showdown.

A comparison between October.November with August/September should be enlightening.

++++++++++

Date: 2006-11-21 11:12 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mrwarfrog.livejournal.com
Not wearing a tie..Blood and sand, hang it all, shoot the bastard.

What kind of an example is that setting to the children for gods sake!!

People like that don't deserve to be PM. I bet he never served in the trenches and joined in with a group sing song about the good old days.

What WAS his bat man thinking!!!!

(please feel free to continue said bollocks until you get fed up!)

Date: 2006-11-21 12:17 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] countingmyouts.livejournal.com
I look forward to your stat comparison, Peter. I do think it will be telling in that the games have changed in the past month or so.

In a sense, the games have become easier to play. Tight-passives are extremely transparent. They always pay off with second best hands, they don't punish you when they have an edge preflop and they let you know when they have a big hand (and you can drop a hand cheaply because of this).

I am still seeing an influx of weaker players, also. I play mostly at Stars and I am seeing many old faces from my Paradise days popping up at Stars (U.S. players using the same screen names they used at Paradise). I have heard anecdotally that the same is occuring at Full Tilt.

In light of these changing games, I think that correctly betting the river in these games is going to take on more and more importance in one's winrate.

Michael

Date: 2006-11-21 01:24 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peterbirks.livejournal.com
Hello Michael:

Yes, I'll really try to put this together. Once I work out how to do it, it shouldn't be too complicated to implement.

Without going into too many details before the end of the month, I would say that your point about "you can drop a hand cheaply" has been my best change of strategy. There are far fewer players likely to be "at it" and the range of plays that they have when they are "at it" appears to consist of either betting a rag flop from the blind into a late-position raiser, or check-raising it with a flush draw.

Everything else (say, raises on the flop from the button after they have cold-called a raise pre-flop) I have treated the default (until contra-indications received from PT) as "utterly genuine" rather than "might be at it". It's saved me a fair few dollars. They will not push a hand pre-flop, they will push anything they hit post-flop (never any subtlety involved), and if you fight back, they will call you down to the end unless they have a set or better, in which case they will raise. Once you know how they play, life becomes a bit easier.

PJ

Date: 2006-11-21 02:38 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jellymillion.livejournal.com
Once I work out how to do it...

Start with setting a date range in Preferences. After that you're on your own. Remember the silly middle-to-front American date format.

Strangely enough, given your observations above, the PLO8 on Full Tilt was rocking last night. Could I hit a flop? Could I bollocks. But I was averaging about a point a hand at $0.50/$1 anyway, so a round was earning me 50 or 60 cents plus some tiny fraction of Iron Man EV plus, I dunno, about an eightth of an inch of hockey shirt sleeve. Or something. So I ended up about $20 down for ~250 hands with about $15 bonus cleared plus ancillaries. Call it a bit below even.

Date: 2006-11-21 04:17 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peterbirks.livejournal.com
Phone Pat and tell her you'll be late, Mike. There I was today, mocking the poor fools who used the underground, only to arrive at Charing Cross to find that the overground was well and truly stagnant. Total signal failure at Sevenoaks. Ah, the perils of hubris.

Luckily, I got a (late) train nearly as soon as I arrived, but CX was v v crowded.

PJ

Date: 2006-11-21 05:54 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] andy-ward-uk.livejournal.com
If we're mocking, this is precisely the kind of thing Simon G and I were laughing at today, as we ate a leisurely lunch (free popcorn and crayons provided), happily swapping anecdotes of poker-playing wankers we have known and then paying the bill courtesy of same.

Andy.

Date: 2006-11-21 11:33 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jellymillion.livejournal.com
I had to leave early to get to a parent-teacher thing. I suspected something was awry when I got to London Bridge to see the train before the one I was planning to catch arriving on platform 4. The announcement describing it as "the delayed..." was a broad hint. Only 15 minutes late, hoping to arrive in time to hear Johnny's teacher wrapping up with "...apart from that, everything's fine". Turns out I missed a veritable paean. Which was nice. The other one was also good. I got good kids.

The Nigerian scams

Date: 2006-11-21 02:11 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] geoffchall.livejournal.com
I was fascinated to hear on the radio yesterday that some ludicrous amount of money had been defrauded from people on scame originating out of Nigeria. Surely the world and his wife now know that anything emerging of this mature should simply be laughed at. I haven't seen one in ages and I could never quite understand anyone falling for them when they were a novelty.

icelandic names

Date: 2006-11-21 02:16 pm (UTC)
From: (Anonymous)
On a recent trip to Iceland I learnt that until recently it was illegal to give babies non-icelandic names. Immigrants also had to adopt Icelandic names. Beer was illegal until 1989 and rotten shark is a local delicacy - interesting lot... all the money comes from a binge of lending by icelandic banks and a property boom
best wishes
adrian

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