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The Three Queens
Apr. 6th, 2005 01:29 pmHere's a hand that I was proud of in an $8-$16 game at the Bellagio:
Foe 1: Small Blind
Foe 2: UTG
Birks: Seat 7: QD QH
Foe 2 limps, I raise, and am called by Foe 1 and Foe 2. So far, so predictable. I am more worried by the call from the small blind than by the under-the-gun player. The former had seemed sensible enough rather than an automatic blind defender. The latter was loose-passive and could have any Ace, a couple of pictures, perhaps even QJ. $53 in pot.
Flop: QS TH 9S
Although I have flopped top set, I am not overly keen on this board. There are serious flush and straigh dangers out there
SB checks: UTG checks: Birks bets, SB calls, UTG calls. $100 in pot. I do not think anyone is slow-playing a flopped straight, but I do fear some dangerous drawing hands out there
Turn: QS HT 9S JC
Ugh. The question here now is not what hands my opponents can have that beat me, but what ones they have where I beat them.
SB Bets $16. UTG raises to $32. Birks folds. SB calls.
I was proud of this fold. Very few players seem to be able to lay down top set even if they are 95% sure that they are behind. "I had to call for the river" is the common cry.
Indeed, if I was only facing a single bet, a call to the river is correct (although it's wrong if you then relent and make a "crying call" when you miss!). But, facing a $16 bet and the possibility of a reraise behind me, a fold here should be automatic. Even if there is no raise behind me, I am getting $132-to-$32 for my call, which is fractionally less than the 7-to-2 that I am to hit my house. (I ignore the reraise possibility and the chance that one of the players has lower trips here). Counteracting this are the implied odds that I will be called if I do hit my house, but counteracting THIS is the likelihood that I will be reraised by the small blind if (as I suspect), they both have made straights to the King. Indeed, SB might have AK.
The river brought a dog seven. SB checked and called the bet from UTG. UTG turned over KQ while SB turned over KT with two spades.
Another reason that many players find it hard to lay down the top set in this situation is that they suspect that, even if they fold, a river card will be shown. If the board does pair, they then have the opportunity of kicking themselves for half an hour or thereabouts.
I reckon my negative-ev if I call that $32 bet is in the region of $16 or so.
Foe 1: Small Blind
Foe 2: UTG
Birks: Seat 7: QD QH
Foe 2 limps, I raise, and am called by Foe 1 and Foe 2. So far, so predictable. I am more worried by the call from the small blind than by the under-the-gun player. The former had seemed sensible enough rather than an automatic blind defender. The latter was loose-passive and could have any Ace, a couple of pictures, perhaps even QJ. $53 in pot.
Flop: QS TH 9S
Although I have flopped top set, I am not overly keen on this board. There are serious flush and straigh dangers out there
SB checks: UTG checks: Birks bets, SB calls, UTG calls. $100 in pot. I do not think anyone is slow-playing a flopped straight, but I do fear some dangerous drawing hands out there
Turn: QS HT 9S JC
Ugh. The question here now is not what hands my opponents can have that beat me, but what ones they have where I beat them.
SB Bets $16. UTG raises to $32. Birks folds. SB calls.
I was proud of this fold. Very few players seem to be able to lay down top set even if they are 95% sure that they are behind. "I had to call for the river" is the common cry.
Indeed, if I was only facing a single bet, a call to the river is correct (although it's wrong if you then relent and make a "crying call" when you miss!). But, facing a $16 bet and the possibility of a reraise behind me, a fold here should be automatic. Even if there is no raise behind me, I am getting $132-to-$32 for my call, which is fractionally less than the 7-to-2 that I am to hit my house. (I ignore the reraise possibility and the chance that one of the players has lower trips here). Counteracting this are the implied odds that I will be called if I do hit my house, but counteracting THIS is the likelihood that I will be reraised by the small blind if (as I suspect), they both have made straights to the King. Indeed, SB might have AK.
The river brought a dog seven. SB checked and called the bet from UTG. UTG turned over KQ while SB turned over KT with two spades.
Another reason that many players find it hard to lay down the top set in this situation is that they suspect that, even if they fold, a river card will be shown. If the board does pair, they then have the opportunity of kicking themselves for half an hour or thereabouts.
I reckon my negative-ev if I call that $32 bet is in the region of $16 or so.
