Sometimes the force is with you

It would be foolish of me to deny that the last month (since May 6, to be precise) has been good. Take the good times with the awareness that they are just that, unusually good times. And bear them in mind when the inevitable bad times come.

I've noticed a pattern in my winnings in that, after a particularly good streak, I get a short period where the wins continue, but at a slower pace, before a bad run starts. I think I have worked out why this is.

Basically my head knows that I am in the middle (or coming to the end) of a good run. So I subconsciously prepare for the bad run that must inevitably come. Now, mathematically, this is nonsense. Although you know you WILL get a bad run, eventually, it is no more nor less likely to start tomorrow because you are in the middle of a good run. But never mind the maths ... this is how my brain behaves. As a result I start "protecting" my good run ... the standard "manufacture of a winning streak" as Caro terms it. This causes me to win less than I would have won if I had carried on playing the same way. (Of course, there is a danger that you can move too far in the opposite direction -- the "I'm hot, I can play anything" attitude, which also brings any good run to an inevitable crash and burn).

So today, in a sense, I manufactured a win. OK. I sat down and decided to play for three hours, and I did play for three hours. And I won $36.50. But this was from a deficit of $260 at one point. And I suspect that if I had got significantly up at any point, I would have stopped. It just so happened that I moved into profit in the last couple of minutes of the three hours.

So we see the first signs of the "protecting a winning streak" emerging, characterized by more conservative play. I must be aware of this and not fall into the trap this time. The cards have no memory!
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Below is an Omaha hand from PokerStars. I'd had a blinding couple of hours at $5-$10 (two tables) and needed only another 12 points to qualify for my bonus. The cards had "gone cold" at the limit tables and I had given back $100. I also didn't feel good about the tables. So I moved over to the Omaha.

A couple of hands: I lost the first, and won the second. In the latter case, it was definitely one of the force being with me.

Game was 25c-50c ($50 max buy-in)

SB: Ann&Ben ($67.45)
UTG: Sniff1003 ($17.15)
MP2: PJB ($45.05)

My hand: Ah As 4s 2d


Sniff called 50c. I called. Button called Ann&Ben raised to $2. Sniff called. I reraised to $9. Button folded. Ann&Ben and Sniff both call. $26.60 in pot.

Flop comes Qc 5h 3h

Checked round to me. I have top pair PLUS the backdoor straight draws. I think that I am looking pretty good here. I bet $26.60. Ann&Ben folds. Sniff calls all-in for $8.15

Turn Ks, River Qh

Sniff shows 8d 8h Qc 7s. Sniff wins $42.20 with three Queens.

I mutter "good grief" to myself. In the words of Paul Samuel, how big a favourite am I? My instinct is about 75%. Running it through Pokercalc. Hmm, not bad. In fact it's 77.44%.

But there was also a little smile there. If there are Omaha players this bad even on Stars, the renowned home of tough ring games, then things are looking up.
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The next hand was a funny one. I suspect that in a bigger stakes game I would have folded. But the stacks of cash held by the players are of some importance. We were not "too deep in" on the flop bet. But I still feel a bit guilty. My only excuse was that I was sitting on more than $400 profit from the ring games!

BB Ann&Ben ($20.60)
UTG: Scumbag Joe ($49.25)
CO2: PJB ($55.50)
Button: teach jr. ($77.25)

Dealt to PJB: Kd Qc Tc 3d

Scumbag flat calls. I like this hand better with as few opponents as possible, given the lack of nut-flush possibilities. I also fancy buying the button. I raise $1.75 to $2.25. teach jr then reraises $1.75 to $4. Another limit player! Ann&Ben calls. scumbag joe calls and I call.

Flop brings Js 9h 4d.

scumbag joe bets $15. This leaves him with $30. I had a bit of a think about this. Assuming scumbag has a set, I suspect that I should fold. And yet, he still has $30 left. If I HIT on the turn, will he be able to walk away from a 7/2 shot, even though he would only be getting 2/1? This is a classic implied odds dilemma and I really don't have the Omaha experience to know whether callling would be profitable. And I also have a raiser behind me? Will HE decide to call?

Sod it, I'm $400 up. This board is a rainbow. I have 13 outs. I call. teach jr also calls. I suspect that this makes things better for me rather than worse. I just hope that I'm the one drawing to the straight and the other two are drawing to a paired board.

Turn brings the 8s. Woohoo!

scumbag goes all in for $30. Did HE have the draw? I have $36 left, but a raise is pointless. A call is much more likely to get teach to play. But he doesn't, he folds. River is an irrelevant 6s.

scumbag joe shows Jh Jd 7h 3s for trip jacks.
I have top straight and win $118.75 pot.

Running it through pokercalc, I see that I am not as bad a dog as I thought. 39% to 60%. With the implied odds available, that would seem to make the flat-call on the flop correct. Obviously if the turn misses me and scumbag bets the pot on the turn, then I fold.

I gave teach jr a possible holding (given his betting on the hand) of Ac Kc Kh Qd
That puts scumbag up to 65% and me down to 28.8%. However, for that 11% drop in equity I am getting an extra $15. But the heads-up scenario is nicer.

Mish-Mash-Mosh

I watched The Passion Of The Christ yesterday. It's a powerful film and I admire Mel Gibson for his commitment to it, despite my own atheism and general secular nature. The decision to film it in Aramaic, using English subtitles, was spot on. The one thing that tends to hamper a sense of authenticity in movies such as this - shattering the suspension of disbelief - is invariably a dodgy accent appearing somewhere, or an anachronism of the vocabulary.

The only thing that disappointed me was the lack of an actors' or director's commentary on the DVD. :-) "Ah yes, Jim, this was where the good Roman accidentally smacked the nail into your wrist rather than your hand, causing multiple haemorrhaging..." ... "That's right Mel. And my it was hot that day. I tell you, you gotta admire that Jesus guy for what he went through up on that crucifix thing".
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The St Martins Fine Art Graduate exhibition begins Saturday 18th June at 12 noon until 4pm. It then runs the following week through to Thursday from 12 noon until 8pm, and then on Friday from 12 noon to 4pm.

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The "Beethoven Week" has started on Radio 3. A cracking version of the Fifth Symphony from 1962 at lunchtime, although I retain an emotional preference for the Klemperer style. After that, all of the others feel a bit rushed! The second movement, in particular, I think should be lingered over like a fine port. So many conductors (and Rattle is a prime criminal here) seem to rush through it so that they can get to the good bits in the third movement.


I really ought to drive up to Gutshot and put my money down for the William Hill freeze-out. But do I really want to play, despite the overlay? Live tournaments are not really my forte, despite a reasonable performance over the past couple of years. I find them very tiring and straining. Not a good idea when I have to produce a newsletter the following day.