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Another unforeseen consequence
Jun. 11th, 2005 12:53 pmI idly fired up the Betfair tournament an hour ago (at which, BTW, I played like a twat, which serves me right for only being half-hearted about playing in the first place). Anyway, I sort of saw a promotion about pocket rockets, which said that every time you got Aces (on a cash table) which turned into a set on certain days, then you would be credited with up to £150.
Well, I'm sure that you are ahead of me here (and I'm sorry that I can't supply further details, but, needless to say, there is no sign of it on the laughable Betfair poker page), but this bonus will have the same implication as it does in the Excalibur, where if your aces get cracked you get to "spin the wheel" for anywhere between $10 and $100. You can always spot the tourists at the Excalibur, because they are the ones raising with Aces pre-flop.
Obviously the same thing applies at Betfair, where the bonus (worth a not bad 7.5p a hand if the prize is £150, or 3.75p a hand if the bonus averages £75) only kicks in if you see a flop with the Aces. Which would indicate that anyone with half a brain will not raise with aces. That could be as many as 25% of the players on low-stakes Betfair tables.
The thing looks like working out at something like a $3 an hour rakeback, but it will be interesting to see how many spot the "raising with aces is mad" line.
In fact, what is the negative EV of raising with AA? Notwithstanding the fact that there is a strong argument against raising with AA in this kind of low limit game anyway, it would look to be something like this:
Raise with AA: Take hand down 10% of time. of that 10%, you would hit set once. Cost = minus £75 on average. Cost per hand that you get AA = 75p. Net cost for every hand = minus 0.3p.
So, you have to take the line that raising with AA on average wins you at least 75p more than does flat-calling. If you think that there is little difference in the EV in a low-stakes limit game, then by raising with AA you reduce your "rakeback" to 3.72p from 3.75p per hand.
Insignificant? Not if this were always on offer and you played all the time, at three tables. Then it would cost you 60p an hour, £24 a week, or more than a grand a year.
Of these little things, the online winner's edge is made.
Well, I'm sure that you are ahead of me here (and I'm sorry that I can't supply further details, but, needless to say, there is no sign of it on the laughable Betfair poker page), but this bonus will have the same implication as it does in the Excalibur, where if your aces get cracked you get to "spin the wheel" for anywhere between $10 and $100. You can always spot the tourists at the Excalibur, because they are the ones raising with Aces pre-flop.
Obviously the same thing applies at Betfair, where the bonus (worth a not bad 7.5p a hand if the prize is £150, or 3.75p a hand if the bonus averages £75) only kicks in if you see a flop with the Aces. Which would indicate that anyone with half a brain will not raise with aces. That could be as many as 25% of the players on low-stakes Betfair tables.
The thing looks like working out at something like a $3 an hour rakeback, but it will be interesting to see how many spot the "raising with aces is mad" line.
In fact, what is the negative EV of raising with AA? Notwithstanding the fact that there is a strong argument against raising with AA in this kind of low limit game anyway, it would look to be something like this:
Raise with AA: Take hand down 10% of time. of that 10%, you would hit set once. Cost = minus £75 on average. Cost per hand that you get AA = 75p. Net cost for every hand = minus 0.3p.
So, you have to take the line that raising with AA on average wins you at least 75p more than does flat-calling. If you think that there is little difference in the EV in a low-stakes limit game, then by raising with AA you reduce your "rakeback" to 3.72p from 3.75p per hand.
Insignificant? Not if this were always on offer and you played all the time, at three tables. Then it would cost you 60p an hour, £24 a week, or more than a grand a year.
Of these little things, the online winner's edge is made.
