![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
You want a piece of me?
Aug. 7th, 2006 08:22 amI suppose it could only be a matter of time before other parts of my company's vast publishing sprawl got to hear of my online exploits. The legal and tax division want to talk to me about online gambling, presumably with a view to commissioning a pice. Oh bollocks. It's not thatthe money isn't nice (money for old rope, if truth be told), it's just the giving up of a weekend and the admin involved in chasing up payment. I'm not very good at submitting invoices and chasing up payments. I'd make a crap businessman.
++++++
End of the road for Gryko, and I'll be interested to hear what some of the peasants make of the way he went out. Here's the report I have.
With blinds and antes making the pot up to about 90K, the chip leader makes it 100K to go with a raise under the gun. Richard, on the button, pushes all in for 920K. Jamie Gold calls with AK and Richard turns over J3. The AK holds up and Richard is eliminated.
A moment of madness? Not really. Look at what might have been going through Richard's mind.
1) Jamie has probably been doing this a lot, using his chip lead
2) While 100K is not much of his stack, a million is a reasonable percentage of it
3) It's near the end of the day. Most people are probably only making big bets with premium hands
4) Richard is on the button, and he knows that Jamie knows it. With something like, say, J3s, a call might make some sense, but an all-in raise when such a raise isn't necessary against the chip leader probably means a very big hand that wants a call.
Put all these together and Ricahrd probably reckons he has a fold equity of about 80% here.
Of the remaining 20%, Gold will have two high cards about 70% of the time, and a pair 30% of the time. He'll probably only have an overpair 5% of the time.
There is nearly 200K in the pot, giving Richard a 20% RoE if Jamie folds.
If Jamie calls, Richard probably reckons he has an average 36% or thereabouts chance of winning and doubling through.
So, the all-in raise gives us an expected return of
Gold Folds: 200K x 0.8 = 160K
Gold calls, Gold loses: 1.0m x 0.36 x 0.2 = 72K
Gold calls, Gold wins: - 920K x 0.64 x 0.2= minus -118K
Giving an EV from the all-in raise of +124K.
Of course, the nonces will say "but his tournament life was at stake!" But you don't get to these positions in tournaments thinking like a scared prick.
Personally, I wouldn't have made the move, but I can understand why the move was made and, provided you accept that with 50 players left, chips held was fairly closely directly proportional to equity, then it only becomes a wrong play if Gold is very likely to call the reraise.
Suppose he's 80% likely to call:
Gold folds: 200K x 0.2 = 40K
Gold calls, GOld loses: 1.0m x 0.36 x 0.8 = 288K
Gold calls, Gold wins: -920K x 0.64 x 0.8 = -471K
That makes it an expected EV from this move of minus 143K.
From these numbers, it looks like the crossover point is around about 55%. If Gold is 55% (or more) likely to fold to the reraise, then Richard's reraise all-in has positive EV.
It will be interesting to see how many posters on various fora see it that way.
PJ
++++++
End of the road for Gryko, and I'll be interested to hear what some of the peasants make of the way he went out. Here's the report I have.
With blinds and antes making the pot up to about 90K, the chip leader makes it 100K to go with a raise under the gun. Richard, on the button, pushes all in for 920K. Jamie Gold calls with AK and Richard turns over J3. The AK holds up and Richard is eliminated.
A moment of madness? Not really. Look at what might have been going through Richard's mind.
1) Jamie has probably been doing this a lot, using his chip lead
2) While 100K is not much of his stack, a million is a reasonable percentage of it
3) It's near the end of the day. Most people are probably only making big bets with premium hands
4) Richard is on the button, and he knows that Jamie knows it. With something like, say, J3s, a call might make some sense, but an all-in raise when such a raise isn't necessary against the chip leader probably means a very big hand that wants a call.
Put all these together and Ricahrd probably reckons he has a fold equity of about 80% here.
Of the remaining 20%, Gold will have two high cards about 70% of the time, and a pair 30% of the time. He'll probably only have an overpair 5% of the time.
There is nearly 200K in the pot, giving Richard a 20% RoE if Jamie folds.
If Jamie calls, Richard probably reckons he has an average 36% or thereabouts chance of winning and doubling through.
So, the all-in raise gives us an expected return of
Gold Folds: 200K x 0.8 = 160K
Gold calls, Gold loses: 1.0m x 0.36 x 0.2 = 72K
Gold calls, Gold wins: - 920K x 0.64 x 0.2= minus -118K
Giving an EV from the all-in raise of +124K.
Of course, the nonces will say "but his tournament life was at stake!" But you don't get to these positions in tournaments thinking like a scared prick.
Personally, I wouldn't have made the move, but I can understand why the move was made and, provided you accept that with 50 players left, chips held was fairly closely directly proportional to equity, then it only becomes a wrong play if Gold is very likely to call the reraise.
Suppose he's 80% likely to call:
Gold folds: 200K x 0.2 = 40K
Gold calls, GOld loses: 1.0m x 0.36 x 0.8 = 288K
Gold calls, Gold wins: -920K x 0.64 x 0.8 = -471K
That makes it an expected EV from this move of minus 143K.
From these numbers, it looks like the crossover point is around about 55%. If Gold is 55% (or more) likely to fold to the reraise, then Richard's reraise all-in has positive EV.
It will be interesting to see how many posters on various fora see it that way.
PJ
