Oct. 7th, 2006

peterbirks: (Default)
Back in the high life of London again, not jet-lagged, but distinctly still in Pacific Time.

I saw two interesting movies on the flight back: Down In The Valley confirms Ed Norton as one of the finest film actors of his generation. I've been an admirer of his work for some time, but seeing 25th Hour and this movie in the space of a couple of weeks confirms him as the Dustin Hoffman of this decade.

Actually, this film (which has been compared to Malik's Badlands) is really Norton's interpretation of Hoffman in Midnight Cowboy (yes, I know that Voight plays the cowboy, but in every scene I feel myself returning to that Ratso character, rather than the Michael Sheen character in Badlands).

I think that Harlan Fairfax Carruthers will become one of the great screen creations. Here we have Billy Liar, Midnight Cowboy, Ratso Rizzo and, in one fascinating moment, Travis Bickle, rolled into one.

In what is essentially a four-hander, David Morse plays the father. Morse is a regular on TV and in films, and here he provides one of his best performances. Of the two "juveniles", Evan Rachel Wood is weaker than Rory Culkin, the seventh and youngest of the infamous Culkin tribe. It's a brilliant performance from a child actor. Bruce Dern pops up in a cameo.

I wouldn't be surprised if this became a cult hit in Europe before it becomes appreciated in the US.


The second movie was Hard Candy, perhaps not the best film to watch when trapped in your seat on an overnight flight. Without giving too much away, at one point I had to switch channels, because I thought that I was about to faint. I mean, literally, faint. I haven't fainted since I was 10 years old. But my blood pressure dropped, I got dizzy, I started to sweat. I had to focus really hard on my breathing for five minutes to stop passing out or vomiting.

Now, if that isn't a statement that one particular part of this film is rather hard to stomach, I don't know what is.

That said, this is another "must see" movie. In what is essentially a two-hander (god this would have made a great stage play) Ellen Page and Patrick Wilson as the "groomee" and paedophile/possible child-killer respectively are superb.

I haven't read other reviews of this movie, but it seems abundantly clear to me from the events at the end that this is a "fairy story". It's based on a well-known fairy tale, but is twisted for modern times.

In this sense, it is a mistake to see Hayley as a 14-year old girl. She is a representation of men's darkest fears. And men are, in the context of this film, the "children" of the fairy tale.

Of course, my interpretation may be way off, and I don't want to give too much away, but if you see this film , consider two points that come very near the end. The first is the fact that children in fairy stories do not normally act alone. The second is the clothing worn by Hayley at the end.

Or perhaps I am reading too much into it.

A genuinely frightening film.

+++++++++


So, back to the grind of online poker. I'm $250 up this month without playing a single ring game hand (well, $950 up if you include Vegas).

The profit comes from last month's bonuses and the Gold Freeroll. That's the good thing about only booking bonuses at the start of the following month ... you always get off to a good start.

Unfortunately, you have to play some real poker so that the bonuses are generated the following month. There's always a downside.

Getting back into online ring after 10 days of face-to-face ring is always difficult, and you have to tread carefully. You begin to see why many live players ust cannot make the transition. Sitting in a live ring game, position is less important because half the players to act behind you might as well be sitting with their cards face up. Folds are easy when you can see from a player's reactions when the river falls whether or not he has hit his river or whether he is going to try a desperation bluff. I called one guy down with AJ on a board of something like T9855 two diamonds and two clubs, because I was fairly certain that he had missed some kind of draw with KJ or a ropey four-flush (it was the ropey four-flush and the idiot end of a gutshot). On another hand I folded a set without hesitation against a bet and a call on the river that had brought a danger card. Sure enough, bettor had flush and caller had straight.

All these clues vanish in a puff of smoke when you are back online, and the limps UTG with A6 suited (because you can see that no-one looks keen to raise) can no longer be exploited profitably.


+++++++++++++


Just in case any of you ever wonder how little Party people understand poker, here's a typical Customer Service analysis of expected value.

The matter comes from 2+2 and is an unverified but almost certainly genuine response to a query about the amount of money that will be refunded to qualifiers for the Monster Promotion if it is abandoned.

"All the monster tournaments are freeroll tournaments meaning they did not have any value assigned to them.

However, if and when the Act becomes Law, we will definitely determine the refund value for all the Monster freerolls and communicate the same information to our players.

I appreciate your patience in the interim and thank you for your support and cooperation in this regard.



So, there you go, because it's a freeroll, it has no value assigned to it. Good one, Yagnesh.


So, I guess that if I enter Who Wants to Be A Millionaire, get as far as the final, sit down to answer some questions, my entry has no "value"?

Actually, this ignorance isn't as unusual as you might think. Even people in the betting shop business seem to struggle with the concept of EV, and in one argument that I had with Betfair over a disconnect, the response of one guy was "but there were ten players left; you might have come 10th", as he tried to justify some pathetic level of compensation for a tourney where I was second to the chip leader going into the final table, before being locked out. (I should point out that this line generated a fairly blistering response from me on the theory of expected value and how I doubted that anyone as ignorant of it as this guy was would be kept in his job if his bosses were aware of his idiocy - I then got offered an amount near to my desired sum).

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