Bet on SportingBet

I might not have won much money on Paradise this year (quickly checks -- oh, I see that I am up a bit...) but SportingBet have been very good to me indeed.

News came through this morning that the company has offloaded all its US business for a dollar. That might sound like bad news, but in fact it has saved the company at least $25m, and possibly more.

The "new" SportingBet saw its share price move up 5p this morning to 71p, but that strikes me as a horrific undervaluation of a company that has profitable interests elsewhere in the world and considerable opportunities for expansion. The "clean break" from the US was probably a best-case scenario for SportingBet and I've put quite an optimistic target price on the shares.

Oh, yes, I did lump in at 8.36.

Elsewhere, it's "D" Day. What will Party do today (I haven't checked yet)? Will they do a reset at 10am EST when Bush signs the bill? What's that coming after the bill? Is it a Monster? Well, probably not. (It helps if you have heard The Automatic to appreciate that bit, BTW).

Oh well, the S Drive is down at work. Everything is screwed. I'm working on the C Drive at home. At least that gives me more time to watch the SportingBet price, just like Taleb says I shouldn't.

More later.

Oh bollox

It might have helped matters if World Gaming hadn't decided to go into administration today. Predictably, because fund managers are moronic sheep, this meant that most online gambling companies were tarred with the same brush (to mix a metaphor slightly), and SportingBet got hammered. Unless my take on this company is way wrong, this price is ridiculous. Its European and Australian operations put its fundamental value at well over a pound, or about twice as much as the current share price. However, just like when you are taking a continual hammering at $5-$10, self-doubt inevitably creeps in.

I know that the definition of a long-term investment is a short-term investment that has gone wrong, but I actually had planned to make the investment somewhat long-term when I put the money in this morning (well, some of it, at least). Oh well, I've gone a grand down before and I daresay I will do again. In fact I went a grand down one Monday morning early in 2000, I vaguely recall, when Retail Decisions collapsed off its bubble high. But it isn't that much fun.

My mood was not improved at 2pm when I had a power failure. That means resetting the clock on all those things without a computer attached - the oven, the microwave, retuning the bloody DAB radio (why hasn't THAT got a battery to preserve time and settings?) the bedside digital alarm clock, the older video machines, that kind of shit, Bahh, humbug.


So, eagerly looking for ways to recoup this short-term setback, I looked to see what poker sites were operating. Well, specifically, I went to Ultimate Bet, whose software now looks to be frozen in time, as the software developer has stopped its association with US gaming. But, never mind, a 100% reload bonuis up to $250, PLUS an offer to convert Ultimate Points to cash, makes for an enticing virtual rakeback offer of something like 5.5 cents a hand if I accumulate more than 2,000 UB points in a week. 5.5 cents a hand is GOOD, trust me on this. In fact, it's so good, I doubt that I will be able to resist it.

The downside is that there's the Full Tilt bonus that I need to get out of the way by the 20th as well. And what are the odds that the other sites will come up with enticing week-long offers? Fairly short.

Party has been down since 3pm or thereabouts, but has just come back on. Whoah! Is this Empire I am looking at? Two, yes TWO, full-ring $2-$4 games. None at $3-$6. The Monster has vanished. No Bad beat jackpot tables, although the Bad Beat Jackpot still shows in the bottom left of the screen! And, unsurprisingly, no indication of how many players there are.

I was playing on Full Tilt and I didn't notice any particular increase in traffic for the period that Party was down.

Mind you, it's only been back up a few minutes, so perhaps this is all a bit unfair. But, well, what a sad sight, what a sad site. Perhaps I should e-mail Party customer support and tell them I heard a rumour that they were not going to be paid this month....

Over to Paradise, and there are still US players there (deposits are barred, but withdrawals are being allowed and play is being allowed for another month or so, I think). Whoops, just getting a new Download. Let's see what Paradise has to promise us Europeans.... asbolutely nothing. Tossas. All the big money games are dead, but 2-4 to 5-10 is still trucking along.

And, at Stars.... a bit busier than usual, but not significantly. No indication that the limit full-ring games are anything other than their usual rockfests.

Now, let's see Pokersite scout.

Stars leads with 6,343 cash players, followed by Pokerroom on 3,555. Full Tilt has 2,400, Party has 2,196, Prima has 2,161 Crypto has 2,049, Everest has 2,093, Paradise has 1,129, Pacific has 1,440, Tribeca has 1,707, Boss Media has 1,669, Ultimate has 1,054 and iPoker has 1,510. Everything else is less than 1,000.

If we allow for Party picking up a bit, this seems to indicate that PokerRoom is benefiting most from the Party shutdown, in cash game terms. I would imagine that Stars will benefit disproportionately in tournaments and sit'n'goes.

However, the look now is of a far more fragmented poker universe, which should be of good news to bonus hunters. Hey, that's me!