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It felt strange having a fairly equilibrious mood after dropping over $125 at $3-$6 last night, in a 600-game session. But I really felt remarkably calm about the whole thing.
This, I suspect, is because Feeney's line that it's where you finish that counts, not how you got there, is little more than wishful thinking. In this particular instance, one of my tables was an absolute horror-fest for 200 hands, during which my won-money-at-showdown was 0%. On average I'd expect to play 15% of hands (= 30), of which 30% would go to showdown (= 9), of which I would win 60% (= five or six). If we take the average pot size to be $30 or thereabouts, that meant there were $180-worth of pots that I hadn't won that, statistically, I would have expected to. Since I was about that much down on this particular table, I could reasonably assume that all that was happening was that I was running bad.
At the other table I was actually up $50, but then I hit one of those once-in-a-blue-moon nightmare hands.
I got KK in MP1, raised, and was called by a very loose-passive player on the button (42% of flops, zero per cent raises pre-flop). I think one of the blinds defended. Flop came K 8 7 rainbow.
I bet, and get called on the button. Turn is something relatively innocuous, maybe a 3. I bet, button raises, I three-bet, button caps it. I call.
River is a seven. I bet, button raises, I three-bet (suddenly realizing that this might be a bit of a mistake). Button caps it, I call, and he showws 77 for quad sevens, beating my full house KKK77.
That smacked the "good" table into a loss as well, so it was something of a grind to get back from $250 down to merely $125 down, but a satisfying one, in its own way.
I'm still seriously looking at the $5-$10 games and the now somewhat active $8-$16 sector -- a game that has hardly ever been spread anywhere with success, but which seems to have found a lease of life at Full Tilt. I suspect that at the weekends, the EV should be positive.
++++++++++
One absolutely foolproof way to make money should be to move in when the market overreacts. A particular example of overreaction in recent years has been the movement of the dollar in reaction to the famous non-farming monthly payrolls data, which are released today. For a start, if one figure has an influence in one country, but is routinely ignored elsewhere, then there's a good chance that the domestic market is overreacting. But, secondly, this data is notoriously unreliable, usually being revised within the following months. So, if you have a market reacting to inaccurate unimportant data, the logical thing to do is to buy when people sell, and vice-versa.
Not that I'm doing anything about it at the moment, but it's a good guiding principle.
+++++++++++++
This, I suspect, is because Feeney's line that it's where you finish that counts, not how you got there, is little more than wishful thinking. In this particular instance, one of my tables was an absolute horror-fest for 200 hands, during which my won-money-at-showdown was 0%. On average I'd expect to play 15% of hands (= 30), of which 30% would go to showdown (= 9), of which I would win 60% (= five or six). If we take the average pot size to be $30 or thereabouts, that meant there were $180-worth of pots that I hadn't won that, statistically, I would have expected to. Since I was about that much down on this particular table, I could reasonably assume that all that was happening was that I was running bad.
At the other table I was actually up $50, but then I hit one of those once-in-a-blue-moon nightmare hands.
I got KK in MP1, raised, and was called by a very loose-passive player on the button (42% of flops, zero per cent raises pre-flop). I think one of the blinds defended. Flop came K 8 7 rainbow.
I bet, and get called on the button. Turn is something relatively innocuous, maybe a 3. I bet, button raises, I three-bet, button caps it. I call.
River is a seven. I bet, button raises, I three-bet (suddenly realizing that this might be a bit of a mistake). Button caps it, I call, and he showws 77 for quad sevens, beating my full house KKK77.
That smacked the "good" table into a loss as well, so it was something of a grind to get back from $250 down to merely $125 down, but a satisfying one, in its own way.
I'm still seriously looking at the $5-$10 games and the now somewhat active $8-$16 sector -- a game that has hardly ever been spread anywhere with success, but which seems to have found a lease of life at Full Tilt. I suspect that at the weekends, the EV should be positive.
++++++++++
One absolutely foolproof way to make money should be to move in when the market overreacts. A particular example of overreaction in recent years has been the movement of the dollar in reaction to the famous non-farming monthly payrolls data, which are released today. For a start, if one figure has an influence in one country, but is routinely ignored elsewhere, then there's a good chance that the domestic market is overreacting. But, secondly, this data is notoriously unreliable, usually being revised within the following months. So, if you have a market reacting to inaccurate unimportant data, the logical thing to do is to buy when people sell, and vice-versa.
Not that I'm doing anything about it at the moment, but it's a good guiding principle.
+++++++++++++
