![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
I bought two mobile phones today, kind of on impulse. Well, my mum said that she might like a new one, and then I saw a Nokia O2 phone for a penny light of a hundred quid, which seemed to have more gadgets than I could have bought for a grand a couple of years ago. All I hope now is that my old BT Cellnet sim card works with it. Then again, if it doesn't, it's no big loss, because hardly anyone has my old mobile phone number anyway. And, besides, the monophonic ringtone (a personally composed Don't Cry For Me Argentina, anyone?) was so 1990s that I was embarrassed to ever turn iit on in public, just in case it rang.
++++++++++
To 30 St Mary Axe on Tuesday for Swiss Re's anual round-up. I missed this last year because I was in Vegas, and it's probably one of the few reasons for staying in England. Not only do you get the chance to visit "the gherkin" (as I continue to refuse to call it in any professional capacity) but you also get the chance to talk to Swiss Re's chief economist and the ex vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve about yield curves.
Roger Ferguson (who left the Fed to join Swiss Re last year) was not only short and bald, but black, which kind of gives hope to us all. You don't spend a lifetime in Washington DC (apart from an interregnum at Harvard) without gaining some political astuteness, and one is always suspicious of "likeability" when it comes from politicians. But he did seem a quite genuine and self-effacing guy -- not something you often come across in short people, and, I guess, inidicative of supreme self-confidence.
And, of course, he had the brain the size of a planet, as does our friend Thomas Hess of Swiss Re. But it was quite nice to see an obvious difference between the two of them on the likelihood of a recession in the US next year.
++++++++++++
Yesterday was a fairly horrible afternoon after a mistake of my own making. It was a combination of events, and partly a result of my tiredness.
A couple of days ago I ordered the BT Home Hub system, including the phone, when I was online. However, the final click-through didn't seem to work. I thought little more about it. If I got an e-mail confirming the order - fine. If I didn't, I could check up in a few days.
Anyway, it was therefore not really a surprise to receive a call from (I thought) BT about the HomeHub, even though the guy at the other end seemed a bit vague about things. It was also nice to be told that I would be getting the phone for free rather than having to pay £50. Anyway, I had more questions, about BT Vision and the like, but he was a bit vague (unsurprising if he was in sales), and by the end of the call I had utterly forgotten that he phoned me rather than the other way round.
So, when he asked for mother's maiden name and birthdate and e-mail address, I gave them. He came out with the spiel about when to expect delivery, blah blah, and that was the end of the call.
Anyhoo, 20 minutes later, it occurred to me that the guy had phoned me, rather than vice-versa. Cue panic on the Birks identity-theft front, what with all this money in various accounts.
So, I telephoned BT customer services. When I eventually got through, a nightmare ensued. The woman went through to sales. No, she said, there was no record of a call to you. She went away and checked up on a few other things. Back she came. Yes, it would appear that BT is offering a free Home Hub phone, but no-one from BT has phoned you. If they had, it would be on our system. Why don't you phone 1471 and see what happens?
So, I hung up, phoned 1471, and got an 0800 number. BT then phoned me back, took that number, checked it, and said that it was a company called 2Touch.
And that's nothing to do with you?
No, she said. We've never heard of them. And anyway, we would never ask for confidential details like that.
So what do I do now?
Phone Ofcom, the regulator.
And so I hung up. By now, I was in a state of ill-controlled meltdown. But at least I had the name of an operation, even if it might be some fly-by-night steal-your-data operation.
I googled, and I found it. It actually seemed to be a genuine company, with case studies of marketing campaigns they had done for Toyota and others. By now it was gone six pm (two hours wasted! Sigh). I phoned the number and was eventually put through to a woman in human resources. She said that she would try to see what had happened and would phone me back.
And, 20 minutes later, someone from 2Touch does phone back. Someone, no less, claiming to have BT as a client account, and someone claiming that the procedure followed was as requested by BT.
"So, let me get this straight. You telephone someone. You keep the name of your company secret, saying that you are phoning "on behalf" of BT, and then at the end of an outbound call you ask for a person's confidential details, so that you know you are selling a product to the right person?"
And, well, basically, yes, that is what they do. But, and here's the genuinely frightening thing (and I have no reason to disbelieve the woman I talked to), 2Touch does not contravene the guidelines of the Direct Marketing Association, or of Ofcom, when it does this. Indeed, she was most insistent that this was the case. And she said that 2Touch was only acting as BT asked it to (because, of course, BT wants to know that 2Touch has sold to a "genuine" buyer).
Well, lady from 2Touch said that she would get back to me either today or Monday after she had had discussions with BT about this policy (probably because, by now, I had said that I was a journalist and had talked about getting in touch with the DMA and with Ofcom about this, because it was starting to look like a fucking good story for the nationals -- a small company in Sunderland asking for your details in an outbound call is no big deal, but the DMA and Ofcom permitting it -- that's a story).
And there it hangs. My main feeling was of relief that I hadn't been a victim of identity theft because of my own tiredness and stupidity; but my second feeling was of anger - mainly at BT. The poor woman at the marketing company said that the reason my sale had not shown up at BT was because the sales were not sent over in real time. She was equally aghast at what BT had told me about them not contacting me and that they had never heard of a company which they had hired for a marketing campaign. I was aghast that they were not contradicting any guidelines when they asked for confidential information during an outbound call, despite not revealing the name of their own company during that call.
But, well, with luck, I'll get my free BT HomeHub, just for re-signing for a new 12-month contract.
++++++++++++
It's not often that I give credit to investment banks, particularly if they happen to be German. But all credit to Deutsche Bank for a clever derivative that it's offered to the insurance industry. The techinicalities of it aren't that simple (in the sense that I had to explain on a whiteboard to an insurance journalist what was happening) but, for once, the bank is offering a genuine service (as well as making money, of course).
What Deutsche Bank appears to have done is exploited a couple of disconnects in the insurance business. When a company insures something for a lot of money, it often "reinsures" a part of it with another company. If said event takes place, insurer pays claimant, and then claims its share back from the reinsurer. In the interim, it books that money owed as a "reinsurance recoverable" at full value.
The problem is, what if the reinsurer is in trouble? There's no provision for booking reinsurance recoverables in terms of expected value ("we might get it, we might not, let's call it 60% of the amount") so insurers tend to go for reinsurers that are not in any danger of going bust. In ratings terms, this means single A or above. Once a reinsurer is triple B or below, many insurers just don't want to know, at any price.
Now, the rating agencies have long insisted that a triple B company is very unlikely to go bust. But they have to offer better prices, or, sometimes, capacity that is not available elsewere. But if you have a triple B company as your reinsurer on your books, the rating agency (and institutional investors) start to look askance. In other words, it might affect your rating.
Cue Deutsche Bank. An insurer called Aspen (look at the commercial insurance notice in your office - Aspen might well be the insurer) has reinsured some stuff with a reinsurer that, presumably, is triple B-rated. Let's say it paid a $100m premium instead of a $110m premium for up to $2bn of cover.
It then "wrapped" this in a separate deal with Deutsche Bank (a double-A rated company), under which, if the event occurs, and if the reinsurer gets into difficulty paying, then Deutsche Bank will step in. Let's say Deutsche Bank trousered $5m for this.
Aspen is happy, because it effectively gets double-A rated reinsurance for $105m instead of $110m, and Deutsche Bank is happy, because it knows that there is very little chance of said event happening and, even if it did, said BBB-rated reinsurer could probably pay up without difficulty.
And there, my friends, you have a perfect example of how an investment bank properly exploits a market disconnect. TOp marks.
++++++++++
To 30 St Mary Axe on Tuesday for Swiss Re's anual round-up. I missed this last year because I was in Vegas, and it's probably one of the few reasons for staying in England. Not only do you get the chance to visit "the gherkin" (as I continue to refuse to call it in any professional capacity) but you also get the chance to talk to Swiss Re's chief economist and the ex vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve about yield curves.
Roger Ferguson (who left the Fed to join Swiss Re last year) was not only short and bald, but black, which kind of gives hope to us all. You don't spend a lifetime in Washington DC (apart from an interregnum at Harvard) without gaining some political astuteness, and one is always suspicious of "likeability" when it comes from politicians. But he did seem a quite genuine and self-effacing guy -- not something you often come across in short people, and, I guess, inidicative of supreme self-confidence.
And, of course, he had the brain the size of a planet, as does our friend Thomas Hess of Swiss Re. But it was quite nice to see an obvious difference between the two of them on the likelihood of a recession in the US next year.
++++++++++++
Yesterday was a fairly horrible afternoon after a mistake of my own making. It was a combination of events, and partly a result of my tiredness.
A couple of days ago I ordered the BT Home Hub system, including the phone, when I was online. However, the final click-through didn't seem to work. I thought little more about it. If I got an e-mail confirming the order - fine. If I didn't, I could check up in a few days.
Anyway, it was therefore not really a surprise to receive a call from (I thought) BT about the HomeHub, even though the guy at the other end seemed a bit vague about things. It was also nice to be told that I would be getting the phone for free rather than having to pay £50. Anyway, I had more questions, about BT Vision and the like, but he was a bit vague (unsurprising if he was in sales), and by the end of the call I had utterly forgotten that he phoned me rather than the other way round.
So, when he asked for mother's maiden name and birthdate and e-mail address, I gave them. He came out with the spiel about when to expect delivery, blah blah, and that was the end of the call.
Anyhoo, 20 minutes later, it occurred to me that the guy had phoned me, rather than vice-versa. Cue panic on the Birks identity-theft front, what with all this money in various accounts.
So, I telephoned BT customer services. When I eventually got through, a nightmare ensued. The woman went through to sales. No, she said, there was no record of a call to you. She went away and checked up on a few other things. Back she came. Yes, it would appear that BT is offering a free Home Hub phone, but no-one from BT has phoned you. If they had, it would be on our system. Why don't you phone 1471 and see what happens?
So, I hung up, phoned 1471, and got an 0800 number. BT then phoned me back, took that number, checked it, and said that it was a company called 2Touch.
And that's nothing to do with you?
No, she said. We've never heard of them. And anyway, we would never ask for confidential details like that.
So what do I do now?
Phone Ofcom, the regulator.
And so I hung up. By now, I was in a state of ill-controlled meltdown. But at least I had the name of an operation, even if it might be some fly-by-night steal-your-data operation.
I googled, and I found it. It actually seemed to be a genuine company, with case studies of marketing campaigns they had done for Toyota and others. By now it was gone six pm (two hours wasted! Sigh). I phoned the number and was eventually put through to a woman in human resources. She said that she would try to see what had happened and would phone me back.
And, 20 minutes later, someone from 2Touch does phone back. Someone, no less, claiming to have BT as a client account, and someone claiming that the procedure followed was as requested by BT.
"So, let me get this straight. You telephone someone. You keep the name of your company secret, saying that you are phoning "on behalf" of BT, and then at the end of an outbound call you ask for a person's confidential details, so that you know you are selling a product to the right person?"
And, well, basically, yes, that is what they do. But, and here's the genuinely frightening thing (and I have no reason to disbelieve the woman I talked to), 2Touch does not contravene the guidelines of the Direct Marketing Association, or of Ofcom, when it does this. Indeed, she was most insistent that this was the case. And she said that 2Touch was only acting as BT asked it to (because, of course, BT wants to know that 2Touch has sold to a "genuine" buyer).
Well, lady from 2Touch said that she would get back to me either today or Monday after she had had discussions with BT about this policy (probably because, by now, I had said that I was a journalist and had talked about getting in touch with the DMA and with Ofcom about this, because it was starting to look like a fucking good story for the nationals -- a small company in Sunderland asking for your details in an outbound call is no big deal, but the DMA and Ofcom permitting it -- that's a story).
And there it hangs. My main feeling was of relief that I hadn't been a victim of identity theft because of my own tiredness and stupidity; but my second feeling was of anger - mainly at BT. The poor woman at the marketing company said that the reason my sale had not shown up at BT was because the sales were not sent over in real time. She was equally aghast at what BT had told me about them not contacting me and that they had never heard of a company which they had hired for a marketing campaign. I was aghast that they were not contradicting any guidelines when they asked for confidential information during an outbound call, despite not revealing the name of their own company during that call.
But, well, with luck, I'll get my free BT HomeHub, just for re-signing for a new 12-month contract.
++++++++++++
It's not often that I give credit to investment banks, particularly if they happen to be German. But all credit to Deutsche Bank for a clever derivative that it's offered to the insurance industry. The techinicalities of it aren't that simple (in the sense that I had to explain on a whiteboard to an insurance journalist what was happening) but, for once, the bank is offering a genuine service (as well as making money, of course).
What Deutsche Bank appears to have done is exploited a couple of disconnects in the insurance business. When a company insures something for a lot of money, it often "reinsures" a part of it with another company. If said event takes place, insurer pays claimant, and then claims its share back from the reinsurer. In the interim, it books that money owed as a "reinsurance recoverable" at full value.
The problem is, what if the reinsurer is in trouble? There's no provision for booking reinsurance recoverables in terms of expected value ("we might get it, we might not, let's call it 60% of the amount") so insurers tend to go for reinsurers that are not in any danger of going bust. In ratings terms, this means single A or above. Once a reinsurer is triple B or below, many insurers just don't want to know, at any price.
Now, the rating agencies have long insisted that a triple B company is very unlikely to go bust. But they have to offer better prices, or, sometimes, capacity that is not available elsewere. But if you have a triple B company as your reinsurer on your books, the rating agency (and institutional investors) start to look askance. In other words, it might affect your rating.
Cue Deutsche Bank. An insurer called Aspen (look at the commercial insurance notice in your office - Aspen might well be the insurer) has reinsured some stuff with a reinsurer that, presumably, is triple B-rated. Let's say it paid a $100m premium instead of a $110m premium for up to $2bn of cover.
It then "wrapped" this in a separate deal with Deutsche Bank (a double-A rated company), under which, if the event occurs, and if the reinsurer gets into difficulty paying, then Deutsche Bank will step in. Let's say Deutsche Bank trousered $5m for this.
Aspen is happy, because it effectively gets double-A rated reinsurance for $105m instead of $110m, and Deutsche Bank is happy, because it knows that there is very little chance of said event happening and, even if it did, said BBB-rated reinsurer could probably pay up without difficulty.
And there, my friends, you have a perfect example of how an investment bank properly exploits a market disconnect. TOp marks.
