(no subject)

Woke up this morning feeling depressed.

This was a bad sign. I won yesterday, but I had a bad dream in the last hours of sleep this morning. My bad dreams often involve me being late for something, which shows how deeply ingrained in my subconscious is the fear of being late and my lack of understanding about people whom it does not seem to bother. Rationality has no place when your nightmares consist of desperately trying to get somewhere on time (although often you aren't quite sure what it is that you have to be on time for. Sometimes I think it's school-related (exams?) and sometimes it's betting-shop related ('must get back in time for first race'. Sometimes it's an indefinable urgency.).

By the way, I have no interest in your dreams. Ya wanna recount your own dreams; start your own blog.


Fired up the laptop. Read Matt's comment on previous post. Thought to myself; "Perhaps he's right. Perhaps I'm a weak-tight passive non-gambler. Perhaps I suck at this game."

This was a bad sign.

Read work e-mails. Received communication indicating that panel I am moderating at conference in Vietnam will require a lot more organizing from me than I had previously been told. Deeply regretted accepting Vietnam gig.

This was a bad sign.

Headed towards Bellagio in all the wrong frame of mind, convinced I was no good.

Ran bad over seven hours, nought for three with KK and nought for three with QQ. Didn't get Aces at all. Had a two-hand tiltisode, but pulled myself together and carried on. Perhaps I'm a crap technical player like Matt and Big Dave said, I said to myself, but at least I'm still here, still solvent, and not burning money in a red mist.

Got to 4pm, my allotted finishing time, and I stopped. Thought to myself; "Hell, if I'm negative EV at poker, why bother playing poker? There are lots more negative EV games in Vegas that require far less concentration."

This was a VERY bad sign.

Started walk back to hotel, composing this entry in my head (indeed, wondering whether to post any kind of entry at all). Felt lump in my throat and tears welling up.

This was a bad sign.

Decided that entry had to be posted. I might have gone through the PIRSAT phase (Perhaps I Really Suck At This) to the DISAT phase (Definitely I Suck At This) into the United Arab Emirates phase (Useless At Everything) but I was damned if I was going to be a coward and hide behind not writing.

I think it's a kind of duty to show the misery that this game can bring at times; a counterbalance to the bollocks I read on all the "professional" sites that hide the fact that more than 95% of players are dreadful and more than 95% of them lose. That the game is not "great fun" at times. Not at all.

I've been through this before and I know what to do. I have hidden strengths and this is one reason why a lot of players far more talented then me are (a) not blogging any more, or, b) busto.

Oh, and I didn't play craps, or blackjack, or roulette. I might be a crap poker player, but I don't try to get it back through gambling.

Perhaps the next session will be better. Perhaps it won't. But when you are in this situation, the last things you can afford to do are either tinker or (even worse) massively re-evaluate.

( some more Vegas pics )

Vegas Jobs

One of the few advantages of being on your own in Vegas is that you are spared the continuous verbal assaults from sales staff here, there, and everywhere. Just walking from my room to the Bellagio I pass at least five "regular" sales groups; two of them actually within the casinos.

The patter is roughly along the lines of "Would you like some free money?" or "where ya headed?" or "Where ya from?" or (if the man or woman is wearing an item of clothing that identifies their origin) something like "Hey, Michigan!"

How many sales do these people make? Obviously the lower ticket-item sales (trips to the Hoover Dam and Grand Canyon) sell more than the higher-budget items (timeshare presentations), but what throughput do these people's bosses require? And how do the sales patterers keep it up, hour after hour, day after day, as people just walk past them?

I assume that they just see it as a job, that the "mark" is not a human being, but a "prospect", and that a rejection counts as for nothing in the personal relationship stakes. There's no way you could carry on otherwise. But the relentless optimism, even from guys in their fifties, is amazing. Man, it must wear you down.

++++++

I only left the room for about an hour since the last post, to try to get a decent photo of the sunset from the Excalibur/New York New York bridge. I wasn't particularly happy with it (perhaps the one last Friday was a genuine rarity - damn).

I seriously considered a trip to the Bellagio to play some $15-$30, which is at least at a level where a win or a loss could have some impact on me (such as, changing the amount I will spend on stuff on the vacation). But I didn't do it. Wimped out again.

I pottered about for a couple of hours on Photoshop, and then made myself get some sleep and go back to sleep when I woke up (at 11pm, 2am, 5am).

Today was an allocated "shopping day", although I stll really don't feel like leaving the room. This makes it rather hard to generate an interesting post. I've still got absolutely no confidence, which is a serious doomer when it comes to sitting down at the limt table. This feeling gradually fades and it may have gone away suficiently by this evening (it's 8am here at the moment). Thursday is often a tough day anyway. I may try another poker room "just for a change" under the pretext of collecting the poker chips.

( Vegas Sunset )

At sea

It was just a little bit too sunny and warm to walk the three miles to the Belz Mall, and the queue for taxis was a mile long. I'd chosen the wrong time to stroll down there; everyone seemed to be checking out.

So, head and heart down, I headed for the Bellagio.

When you leave the Bellagio by the main entrance, there is an escalator that takes you to the strip. There is also an escalator that takes you into the bowels of the Bellagio, where darkness haunts and tour buses arrive.

I've lost count of the number of times I've taken that wrong escalator, realizing seconds too late what I have done ... again.

Half-way through the five hour session, a new game of $30-$60 is starting up. One of the players called is Josef K. Well, I chuckled. How apt, I thought.

+++++

Before I go onto more theoretical matters, there were three incidents today which show that just knowing how to play your cards is only part of the battle in a live game.

In the first, on a board of 96857 three spades, a Chinese woman (a dealer at the Bellagio) bet at the end. Opponent called. She puts down a nine and a six and says "I flopped the straight". Dealer says "five-six-seven-eight-nine, straight". Opponent mucks his hand. Chinese woman rakes in pot. Whoops.

In the second, same Chinese woman is all-in. Board shows QT44A. One opponent shows QJ. Second opponent mucks. Chinese woman shows QK. Dealer says to first opponent "you take side pot" and then says "Queens with a king against queens with a Jack".

At which point I chime in "I think it's two-pairs with an Ace". Dealer apologizes to me. But Chinese woman (also a dealer at the Bellagio) had tellingly kept quiet.

The situations were not identical. In one, the player mucked his hand (and more fool him). In the second, the guy had tabled his hand and I was correcting a dealer error, as was my right (and, I think, duty) to do.

In the third, I had AK off on the button. The pot built up to about $140 on a flop and turn of AQxJ two diamonds. River brought Ace of diamonds (giving me three aces) and my one remaining opponent (very loose and laggy and capable of all sorts, who was sitting at the opposite end of the table) checked. I bet for value here. He promptly raises me and I call with a heavy heart. He tables his two cards and dealer announces "diamond flush". I table my AK and look again. Hold on, I say to myself, he's got a red queen there and there's a queen of diamonds on the board. At this point, dealer says "sorry, two pairs, queens and jacks".

I collect the money, declining to point out that, in fact, the man had two pairs, Aces and Queens. Dealer had two chances to call his hand, and still couldn't manage it. But many a player would have mucked their hand here, only realizing after the cards had hit the muck that the AK was good. That would have been a $150+ mistake -- a lot of big bets.


+++++++

I continue to be all at sea. Why is lack of confidence such a killer at this game? Well, there are a number of reasons. In this particular scenario, I am simply coming up against situations that I never see online. Now that I am convinced that I suck, I am questioning every decision I make. Not only that, but I continue to question those decisions in hindsight. Was I right to do this? Was that the right play? It all builds up in your head until you can't focus on what really matters -- the hand in question. It would be better to play with confidence (and make some technically wrong plays) because you can be fairly certain that many of your opponents will make many more technically wrong plays than you do.

It got to the last hand before I was going to leave and I was $43 up. I look down and see QQ. Do I pass here and preserve my winnings?



Only joking. Of course I fucking don't. I just wanted to show that I'm not completely out of it.

I raise and I get called in two spots, in MP2 and on the button. The flop comes T97 two clubs. I bet and MP2 folds. Button, however, raises.

Now, once again, I'm all at sea. Online, a three-bet here is mandatory, so I decided (following a principle I set out while walking down the strip) that, when in doubt, to follow my online principles. But what is opponent's range here?

I three-bet. He calls. Now what is opponent's range?

Turn brings 4s, making board of T974 two clubs.

I bet. He calls. What would you put opponent on now?

River brings the Ace of Spades. I check. Opponent checks.

Well, maybe you guys are better than me, but I was all over the place here. What's opponent's range? Would you back my hand or his in an evens bet?

This is what I mean by me being all at sea.

++++++++++

A second hand occurred which will come up equally frequently in this kind of game. And, once again, I was lost. It's AQ-off in the small blind with seven limpers. Now, this is not the kind of thing you see in a $2-$4 game in the afternoon on Party.

Let's describe some of the players. Two of them seem to play a majority of flops, but never seem to raise. I reckon that three of the other players are in for value (i.e., they don't have raising hands) and the other two are willing to raise, but are also very loose in their calling standards.

Now, online I can see how hands will develop depending on the flop. But here, I'm lost. I vaguely remembered the old Sklansky rankings that put AQ-off in this kind of game as being not too good. Did that make it a fold, I asked myself? Surely not. You see what I mean about lack of confidence affecting everything?

So, is it a de facto raise? Here I tried to think about a no-limit situation. AQ out of position, I thought to myself, is not a hand where you are likely to be confident. I've got seven opponents. Let's assume that two of them are pairs, one of them has an ace and one of them has a queen. Let's make the rest a rag-bag collection of suited connectors, non-suited connectors, KJoff and the like. So, what percentage do I want to be to make a raise correct here?

On the button, I'm raising without hesitation, but I really had no idea what to do in the small blind. And I should have had an idea. But I didn't.

I called. And already I'm running over in my head "was that right? Should I have raised?".

Big blind raises and everyone calls. $56 in the pot.

Now, what range do I put big blind on? I have no idea. The guy's looseish passive, but seems to have no idea about position. Raises from these players are usually strong. But how strong?

Board comes KT8 two hearts (I have no hearts). Big blind bets, UTG calls. All passed round to me. I call. $68 in pot. I intend to play this hand solely if I can get in last and I am getting pot odds for three outs (a jack that does not bring a possible flush)

Turn brings Jack of spades, putting two spades on board as well as two hearts, but giving me the nut straight. I have Ace of Spades, which at least protects me against a possible nut flush runner-runner.

Do I bet here or go for the check-raise? What do I put my opponents on?

I decide that I can't afford to let this go for a possible check round and, following the line that, the biger the pot, the better it is to play it straightforwardly.

I bet. Big Blind raises. UTG calls. I three-bet. Big blind four-bets. UTG calls.

Question. Do I cap it here?

Question 2: What range do you put your opponents on?

Before you call me wimp city, I do cap it. A quick caaculation told me that I was probably tying here against one player and that the other player had a set. But I might be winning (say, 25%? Like I say, I was really clueless about putting people on ranges of hands). The only situation where capping it might be negative EV was if one player had a set and the other had AhQh.

Much of multi-way poker isn't simple mathematics. You can't assume that your opponents will play correctly. However, in this situation, the confidence of one player made me feel that I was tying. My mistake would have been to ascribe 100% probability to my read.

But, let's suppose my read is right(i.e., let's take a worst-possible scenario, apart from all of us having AQ and one of them having AQ of hearts). What are the maths?

There's $184 in this pot if I cap it, $160 if I don't. All we are thinking about here is the extra $24.

We don't know if the set will call to the end if a safe card comes on the river. Let's be pessimistic and assume not.

22% of the time the board will pair. I lose $8. (minus $1.76)
76% of the time the board doesn't pair. I win $4. (plus $3.04)
2% of the time the board doesn't pair, but is a heart, and opponent has Ah Qh. I lose $8. (minus 16 cents).

So, capping it has a positive EV for me of $1.12, even in this semi-worst-case scenario. If I'm ahead on my own against two sets, or against some other rubbish like a set and a flush draw, my EV from capping is huge.

Lucky that I capped it.

Suppose, however, I know that Big Blind is a tight raiser, that he would only raise with AQs (not AQ off).

That makes things less pretty, because now opponent will have Ah Qh not one time in nine that he has AQ, but one time in two. The 76% comes down to 67% and the 2% goes up to 11%. So we get minus $1.76, plus $2.88, minus 88 cents. Still positive EV over all, then (but only just).

Lucky that I capped it.

Of course, the board paired on the river. Big blind bet, UTG raised, and I folded. Big blind called.

Question. What ranges do you put Big Blind on and UTG on given the betting on the river?

+++++++

I'm absolutely murdering these players in standard online scenarios (e.g., passes round to me in the cut-off, heads up situations post-flop where one of the players is the blind). The problem is, you need to be playing $30-$60 to get this kind of game live in the Bellagio. Even $15-$30 seemed to have hands with five limpers and no raisers. So the type of game that's in my comfort zone for style, is outside my comfort zone for stakes.

A difficult situation for me.