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peterbirksIt was just a little bit too sunny and warm to walk the three miles to the Belz Mall, and the queue for taxis was a mile long. I'd chosen the wrong time to stroll down there; everyone seemed to be checking out.
So, head and heart down, I headed for the Bellagio.
When you leave the Bellagio by the main entrance, there is an escalator that takes you to the strip. There is also an escalator that takes you into the bowels of the Bellagio, where darkness haunts and tour buses arrive.
I've lost count of the number of times I've taken that wrong escalator, realizing seconds too late what I have done ... again.
Half-way through the five hour session, a new game of $30-$60 is starting up. One of the players called is Josef K. Well, I chuckled. How apt, I thought.
+++++
Before I go onto more theoretical matters, there were three incidents today which show that just knowing how to play your cards is only part of the battle in a live game.
In the first, on a board of 96857 three spades, a Chinese woman (a dealer at the Bellagio) bet at the end. Opponent called. She puts down a nine and a six and says "I flopped the straight". Dealer says "five-six-seven-eight-nine, straight". Opponent mucks his hand. Chinese woman rakes in pot. Whoops.
In the second, same Chinese woman is all-in. Board shows QT44A. One opponent shows QJ. Second opponent mucks. Chinese woman shows QK. Dealer says to first opponent "you take side pot" and then says "Queens with a king against queens with a Jack".
At which point I chime in "I think it's two-pairs with an Ace". Dealer apologizes to me. But Chinese woman (also a dealer at the Bellagio) had tellingly kept quiet.
The situations were not identical. In one, the player mucked his hand (and more fool him). In the second, the guy had tabled his hand and I was correcting a dealer error, as was my right (and, I think, duty) to do.
In the third, I had AK off on the button. The pot built up to about $140 on a flop and turn of AQxJ two diamonds. River brought Ace of diamonds (giving me three aces) and my one remaining opponent (very loose and laggy and capable of all sorts, who was sitting at the opposite end of the table) checked. I bet for value here. He promptly raises me and I call with a heavy heart. He tables his two cards and dealer announces "diamond flush". I table my AK and look again. Hold on, I say to myself, he's got a red queen there and there's a queen of diamonds on the board. At this point, dealer says "sorry, two pairs, queens and jacks".
I collect the money, declining to point out that, in fact, the man had two pairs, Aces and Queens. Dealer had two chances to call his hand, and still couldn't manage it. But many a player would have mucked their hand here, only realizing after the cards had hit the muck that the AK was good. That would have been a $150+ mistake -- a lot of big bets.
+++++++
I continue to be all at sea. Why is lack of confidence such a killer at this game? Well, there are a number of reasons. In this particular scenario, I am simply coming up against situations that I never see online. Now that I am convinced that I suck, I am questioning every decision I make. Not only that, but I continue to question those decisions in hindsight. Was I right to do this? Was that the right play? It all builds up in your head until you can't focus on what really matters -- the hand in question. It would be better to play with confidence (and make some technically wrong plays) because you can be fairly certain that many of your opponents will make many more technically wrong plays than you do.
It got to the last hand before I was going to leave and I was $43 up. I look down and see QQ. Do I pass here and preserve my winnings?
Only joking. Of course I fucking don't. I just wanted to show that I'm not completely out of it.
I raise and I get called in two spots, in MP2 and on the button. The flop comes T97 two clubs. I bet and MP2 folds. Button, however, raises.
Now, once again, I'm all at sea. Online, a three-bet here is mandatory, so I decided (following a principle I set out while walking down the strip) that, when in doubt, to follow my online principles. But what is opponent's range here?
I three-bet. He calls. Now what is opponent's range?
Turn brings 4s, making board of T974 two clubs.
I bet. He calls. What would you put opponent on now?
River brings the Ace of Spades. I check. Opponent checks.
Well, maybe you guys are better than me, but I was all over the place here. What's opponent's range? Would you back my hand or his in an evens bet?
This is what I mean by me being all at sea.
++++++++++
A second hand occurred which will come up equally frequently in this kind of game. And, once again, I was lost. It's AQ-off in the small blind with seven limpers. Now, this is not the kind of thing you see in a $2-$4 game in the afternoon on Party.
Let's describe some of the players. Two of them seem to play a majority of flops, but never seem to raise. I reckon that three of the other players are in for value (i.e., they don't have raising hands) and the other two are willing to raise, but are also very loose in their calling standards.
Now, online I can see how hands will develop depending on the flop. But here, I'm lost. I vaguely remembered the old Sklansky rankings that put AQ-off in this kind of game as being not too good. Did that make it a fold, I asked myself? Surely not. You see what I mean about lack of confidence affecting everything?
So, is it a de facto raise? Here I tried to think about a no-limit situation. AQ out of position, I thought to myself, is not a hand where you are likely to be confident. I've got seven opponents. Let's assume that two of them are pairs, one of them has an ace and one of them has a queen. Let's make the rest a rag-bag collection of suited connectors, non-suited connectors, KJoff and the like. So, what percentage do I want to be to make a raise correct here?
On the button, I'm raising without hesitation, but I really had no idea what to do in the small blind. And I should have had an idea. But I didn't.
I called. And already I'm running over in my head "was that right? Should I have raised?".
Big blind raises and everyone calls. $56 in the pot.
Now, what range do I put big blind on? I have no idea. The guy's looseish passive, but seems to have no idea about position. Raises from these players are usually strong. But how strong?
Board comes KT8 two hearts (I have no hearts). Big blind bets, UTG calls. All passed round to me. I call. $68 in pot. I intend to play this hand solely if I can get in last and I am getting pot odds for three outs (a jack that does not bring a possible flush)
Turn brings Jack of spades, putting two spades on board as well as two hearts, but giving me the nut straight. I have Ace of Spades, which at least protects me against a possible nut flush runner-runner.
Do I bet here or go for the check-raise? What do I put my opponents on?
I decide that I can't afford to let this go for a possible check round and, following the line that, the biger the pot, the better it is to play it straightforwardly.
I bet. Big Blind raises. UTG calls. I three-bet. Big blind four-bets. UTG calls.
Question. Do I cap it here?
Question 2: What range do you put your opponents on?
Before you call me wimp city, I do cap it. A quick caaculation told me that I was probably tying here against one player and that the other player had a set. But I might be winning (say, 25%? Like I say, I was really clueless about putting people on ranges of hands). The only situation where capping it might be negative EV was if one player had a set and the other had AhQh.
Much of multi-way poker isn't simple mathematics. You can't assume that your opponents will play correctly. However, in this situation, the confidence of one player made me feel that I was tying. My mistake would have been to ascribe 100% probability to my read.
But, let's suppose my read is right(i.e., let's take a worst-possible scenario, apart from all of us having AQ and one of them having AQ of hearts). What are the maths?
There's $184 in this pot if I cap it, $160 if I don't. All we are thinking about here is the extra $24.
We don't know if the set will call to the end if a safe card comes on the river. Let's be pessimistic and assume not.
22% of the time the board will pair. I lose $8. (minus $1.76)
76% of the time the board doesn't pair. I win $4. (plus $3.04)
2% of the time the board doesn't pair, but is a heart, and opponent has Ah Qh. I lose $8. (minus 16 cents).
So, capping it has a positive EV for me of $1.12, even in this semi-worst-case scenario. If I'm ahead on my own against two sets, or against some other rubbish like a set and a flush draw, my EV from capping is huge.
Lucky that I capped it.
Suppose, however, I know that Big Blind is a tight raiser, that he would only raise with AQs (not AQ off).
That makes things less pretty, because now opponent will have Ah Qh not one time in nine that he has AQ, but one time in two. The 76% comes down to 67% and the 2% goes up to 11%. So we get minus $1.76, plus $2.88, minus 88 cents. Still positive EV over all, then (but only just).
Lucky that I capped it.
Of course, the board paired on the river. Big blind bet, UTG raised, and I folded. Big blind called.
Question. What ranges do you put Big Blind on and UTG on given the betting on the river?
+++++++
I'm absolutely murdering these players in standard online scenarios (e.g., passes round to me in the cut-off, heads up situations post-flop where one of the players is the blind). The problem is, you need to be playing $30-$60 to get this kind of game live in the Bellagio. Even $15-$30 seemed to have hands with five limpers and no raisers. So the type of game that's in my comfort zone for style, is outside my comfort zone for stakes.
A difficult situation for me.
So, head and heart down, I headed for the Bellagio.
When you leave the Bellagio by the main entrance, there is an escalator that takes you to the strip. There is also an escalator that takes you into the bowels of the Bellagio, where darkness haunts and tour buses arrive.
I've lost count of the number of times I've taken that wrong escalator, realizing seconds too late what I have done ... again.
Half-way through the five hour session, a new game of $30-$60 is starting up. One of the players called is Josef K. Well, I chuckled. How apt, I thought.
+++++
Before I go onto more theoretical matters, there were three incidents today which show that just knowing how to play your cards is only part of the battle in a live game.
In the first, on a board of 96857 three spades, a Chinese woman (a dealer at the Bellagio) bet at the end. Opponent called. She puts down a nine and a six and says "I flopped the straight". Dealer says "five-six-seven-eight-nine, straight". Opponent mucks his hand. Chinese woman rakes in pot. Whoops.
In the second, same Chinese woman is all-in. Board shows QT44A. One opponent shows QJ. Second opponent mucks. Chinese woman shows QK. Dealer says to first opponent "you take side pot" and then says "Queens with a king against queens with a Jack".
At which point I chime in "I think it's two-pairs with an Ace". Dealer apologizes to me. But Chinese woman (also a dealer at the Bellagio) had tellingly kept quiet.
The situations were not identical. In one, the player mucked his hand (and more fool him). In the second, the guy had tabled his hand and I was correcting a dealer error, as was my right (and, I think, duty) to do.
In the third, I had AK off on the button. The pot built up to about $140 on a flop and turn of AQxJ two diamonds. River brought Ace of diamonds (giving me three aces) and my one remaining opponent (very loose and laggy and capable of all sorts, who was sitting at the opposite end of the table) checked. I bet for value here. He promptly raises me and I call with a heavy heart. He tables his two cards and dealer announces "diamond flush". I table my AK and look again. Hold on, I say to myself, he's got a red queen there and there's a queen of diamonds on the board. At this point, dealer says "sorry, two pairs, queens and jacks".
I collect the money, declining to point out that, in fact, the man had two pairs, Aces and Queens. Dealer had two chances to call his hand, and still couldn't manage it. But many a player would have mucked their hand here, only realizing after the cards had hit the muck that the AK was good. That would have been a $150+ mistake -- a lot of big bets.
+++++++
I continue to be all at sea. Why is lack of confidence such a killer at this game? Well, there are a number of reasons. In this particular scenario, I am simply coming up against situations that I never see online. Now that I am convinced that I suck, I am questioning every decision I make. Not only that, but I continue to question those decisions in hindsight. Was I right to do this? Was that the right play? It all builds up in your head until you can't focus on what really matters -- the hand in question. It would be better to play with confidence (and make some technically wrong plays) because you can be fairly certain that many of your opponents will make many more technically wrong plays than you do.
It got to the last hand before I was going to leave and I was $43 up. I look down and see QQ. Do I pass here and preserve my winnings?
Only joking. Of course I fucking don't. I just wanted to show that I'm not completely out of it.
I raise and I get called in two spots, in MP2 and on the button. The flop comes T97 two clubs. I bet and MP2 folds. Button, however, raises.
Now, once again, I'm all at sea. Online, a three-bet here is mandatory, so I decided (following a principle I set out while walking down the strip) that, when in doubt, to follow my online principles. But what is opponent's range here?
I three-bet. He calls. Now what is opponent's range?
Turn brings 4s, making board of T974 two clubs.
I bet. He calls. What would you put opponent on now?
River brings the Ace of Spades. I check. Opponent checks.
Well, maybe you guys are better than me, but I was all over the place here. What's opponent's range? Would you back my hand or his in an evens bet?
This is what I mean by me being all at sea.
++++++++++
A second hand occurred which will come up equally frequently in this kind of game. And, once again, I was lost. It's AQ-off in the small blind with seven limpers. Now, this is not the kind of thing you see in a $2-$4 game in the afternoon on Party.
Let's describe some of the players. Two of them seem to play a majority of flops, but never seem to raise. I reckon that three of the other players are in for value (i.e., they don't have raising hands) and the other two are willing to raise, but are also very loose in their calling standards.
Now, online I can see how hands will develop depending on the flop. But here, I'm lost. I vaguely remembered the old Sklansky rankings that put AQ-off in this kind of game as being not too good. Did that make it a fold, I asked myself? Surely not. You see what I mean about lack of confidence affecting everything?
So, is it a de facto raise? Here I tried to think about a no-limit situation. AQ out of position, I thought to myself, is not a hand where you are likely to be confident. I've got seven opponents. Let's assume that two of them are pairs, one of them has an ace and one of them has a queen. Let's make the rest a rag-bag collection of suited connectors, non-suited connectors, KJoff and the like. So, what percentage do I want to be to make a raise correct here?
On the button, I'm raising without hesitation, but I really had no idea what to do in the small blind. And I should have had an idea. But I didn't.
I called. And already I'm running over in my head "was that right? Should I have raised?".
Big blind raises and everyone calls. $56 in the pot.
Now, what range do I put big blind on? I have no idea. The guy's looseish passive, but seems to have no idea about position. Raises from these players are usually strong. But how strong?
Board comes KT8 two hearts (I have no hearts). Big blind bets, UTG calls. All passed round to me. I call. $68 in pot. I intend to play this hand solely if I can get in last and I am getting pot odds for three outs (a jack that does not bring a possible flush)
Turn brings Jack of spades, putting two spades on board as well as two hearts, but giving me the nut straight. I have Ace of Spades, which at least protects me against a possible nut flush runner-runner.
Do I bet here or go for the check-raise? What do I put my opponents on?
I decide that I can't afford to let this go for a possible check round and, following the line that, the biger the pot, the better it is to play it straightforwardly.
I bet. Big Blind raises. UTG calls. I three-bet. Big blind four-bets. UTG calls.
Question. Do I cap it here?
Question 2: What range do you put your opponents on?
Before you call me wimp city, I do cap it. A quick caaculation told me that I was probably tying here against one player and that the other player had a set. But I might be winning (say, 25%? Like I say, I was really clueless about putting people on ranges of hands). The only situation where capping it might be negative EV was if one player had a set and the other had AhQh.
Much of multi-way poker isn't simple mathematics. You can't assume that your opponents will play correctly. However, in this situation, the confidence of one player made me feel that I was tying. My mistake would have been to ascribe 100% probability to my read.
But, let's suppose my read is right(i.e., let's take a worst-possible scenario, apart from all of us having AQ and one of them having AQ of hearts). What are the maths?
There's $184 in this pot if I cap it, $160 if I don't. All we are thinking about here is the extra $24.
We don't know if the set will call to the end if a safe card comes on the river. Let's be pessimistic and assume not.
22% of the time the board will pair. I lose $8. (minus $1.76)
76% of the time the board doesn't pair. I win $4. (plus $3.04)
2% of the time the board doesn't pair, but is a heart, and opponent has Ah Qh. I lose $8. (minus 16 cents).
So, capping it has a positive EV for me of $1.12, even in this semi-worst-case scenario. If I'm ahead on my own against two sets, or against some other rubbish like a set and a flush draw, my EV from capping is huge.
Lucky that I capped it.
Suppose, however, I know that Big Blind is a tight raiser, that he would only raise with AQs (not AQ off).
That makes things less pretty, because now opponent will have Ah Qh not one time in nine that he has AQ, but one time in two. The 76% comes down to 67% and the 2% goes up to 11%. So we get minus $1.76, plus $2.88, minus 88 cents. Still positive EV over all, then (but only just).
Lucky that I capped it.
Of course, the board paired on the river. Big blind bet, UTG raised, and I folded. Big blind called.
Question. What ranges do you put Big Blind on and UTG on given the betting on the river?
+++++++
I'm absolutely murdering these players in standard online scenarios (e.g., passes round to me in the cut-off, heads up situations post-flop where one of the players is the blind). The problem is, you need to be playing $30-$60 to get this kind of game live in the Bellagio. Even $15-$30 seemed to have hands with five limpers and no raisers. So the type of game that's in my comfort zone for style, is outside my comfort zone for stakes.
A difficult situation for me.
no subject
Date: 2007-03-30 01:22 am (UTC)matt
no subject
Date: 2007-03-30 07:57 am (UTC)You may want to (re)read Izmet's take on loosegames. http://www.fekali.com/izmet/playing-with-the-fish
Aksu
no subject
Date: 2007-03-30 01:05 pm (UTC)matt
no subject
Date: 2007-03-30 01:33 pm (UTC)Although I didn't put much rational thought into it at the time, my general line was "is he more likely to call me with a losing hand than to bet one and is he more likely to call me with a winning hand than to bet one?" Part of the probablity here (the main part) is his range.
I felt that the guy was likely to have 88, JJ, KK, A8s or QQ, with AA, K8s, KTs, JTs, T9s, 98s and so on down as unlikely back-up possibilities. But these players tend to be very timid on the river unless they are utterly bluffing or are certain winners. I don't think that the guy has a certain winner, so a check from me might elucidate a bluff from a missed hand with an 8. On the other hand, a bet from me might get a call from 88, JJ, KTs, JTs, 98s (hands I beat)plus calls from hands that beat me, but which won't bet the river (the "won't bet, won't fold" play that I have been seeing so much of). But a check from me might get a check from KK, AA and who knows what?
In other words, I think it's fairly close, rather than "vanishingly small".
The upshot of the hand was I check, he checks, and turns over T9s for two-pair.
OK, so I lost the hand, but the mistakes that this guy made far outweighed any of the marginal errors I might make throughout a session. If he's not going to four-bet the flop, then he has to raise my bet on the turn. And then he checks it down on the river. Inexplicable. The question, therefore, is not how can I fail to beat games such as this, but why am I not doing so at the moment?
PJ
no subject
Date: 2007-03-30 09:01 pm (UTC)Yes he played it terribly with the river check being inexplicable.
matt
I pass
Date: 2007-03-30 04:16 pm (UTC)Who needs these problems? I feel vastly better off not having to bother with any of it.
If you make a little money playing poker, you're welcome to it. Seems that you've earned it many times over.
You don't even need the money. You get enough from your job. Maybe you know why you put yourself through all this, but I don't.
If I play a game, and it doesn't make me feel good, I drop it and play something else. If no game makes me feel good, I stop playing games. There are other things to do in life.
-- Jonathan
Re: I pass
Date: 2007-03-31 03:54 pm (UTC)Meanwhile, the poker players would be saying several things, although they wouldn't be saying the above.
Let's just say that I definitely take on board what you are saying and it is something that crosses my mind, with increasing frequency. Ive been contemplating a few possible "life strategies" these past few days.
PJ