Aug. 9th, 2007

Too Much

Aug. 9th, 2007 10:34 pm
peterbirks: (Default)
Well, at least I posted off most of my tax stuff today. Much of the rest of the day was killed off by me writing virtually non-stop from 7am to 4pm. It was the Summer Party tonight, and I'd actually got round to buying some 1970s gear (well, the shirt -- the jacket just needed cleaning, which I also got done), but I was too tired to go. So, they will have to wait until the next Saturday Night Fever Reunion dance to see the white jacket and large-collared orange shirt in action.

Apart from that, totally knackered. I'm getting old. And for the first time today I did start to wonder if it was all worth it, despite what they deign to pay me. I never thought that I would feel that about writing.

++++++++

Part of the "is this worth it" attitude came, I admit, from me noticing that a couple of "bankrolls" had passed significant milestones. The poker winnings since Jan 2001 sneaked past $40K without me noticing. Of course, some might say "only" $40K, but, I say to myself, if I had been offered that in January 2001, I would have jumped at it. Just because today I start thinking in terms of a quarter of a million as a possibility over the next five years or so, if I apply myself, so, back in 2001, the concept of $20K within seven years would have been sufficiently attractive for me to say, in Weakest Link terms, "Bank".

And the "life" cash bankroll hit a nice milestone too. Not yet at early retirement level, but at least comfortable enough to not have to worry about paying the next Amex bill. So, little suirprise that getting up at 5.30 every morning lost some of its lustre.

+++++++

The currency markets this week have not been for the faint-hearted. Technical analysis is all very good, but sometimes, when volatility, market rumours and gurus' pronouncements hit the headlines, all talk of "gaps" and "double tops" become irrelevant. Nice neat charts become hellholes of randomness.

However, I still managed to sneak into a profit for the week, thanks to sterling's generous decline today. My feeling is that, despite excess volatility, there's still a "rangebound" element to cable, and that sharp spikes within that range one day are often counteracted by sharp reactions the other way the following day. Which is what happened yesterday and today.

The trick is working out when to close out, rather than what side to take.

++++++++

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