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Don't chase...
May. 23rd, 2009 12:19 pmIt's nearly always a mistake to chase these special offers from poker sites. I think that about once in six years I've had a good run to coincide with a month or so of "must get the hands in". Every other time, it's as if a doomswitch has been flipped. So I struggle to make the money back (and, with luck, a bit more) at other sites where I'm not chasing any special offer, and I can focus on finding weak players and easier money.
This time round it's the Pokerstars special offer. And it really is a doomswitch. I'm $100 down over 3000 hands in Sklansky dollars, and $600 down in those irritating things that you need to spend in shops. And it's been worse than that, because there are many parts of cash games that the all-in EV doesn't recognize (in particular, when the guy makes the important mistake chasing the card that he hits, but you have to pay him off because that's the way you played the hand).
But I still fall for it. The Stars offer is of 80,000 VPPs if you generate 7,500 VPPs in May. Effectively it gets you within spitting distance of Supernova, when FPPs mount up like there's no tomorrow. That's a mighty good offer and worth a good few dollars. I just wish that I was winning on the way to getting it.
Anyhoo, after dumping $250 on Stars over 90 minutes (75 minutes and 300 hands before I won a showdown!) I gave up and went to the gym. I sat down at Party and this hands appeared, the very first hand.
It's interesting because it actually harks back to one of the hands that I posted a couple of days ago.
And, yes, in this case I was also 95% certain that opponent had QQ, but three months ago I would not have played this hand this way.
$100 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, May 23,
Table Table 125996 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: salessio ( $100 USD )
Seat 2: Kulturbeutel ( $17 USD )
Seat 3: Hero ( $100 USD )
Seat 4: tilting_doll ( $82 USD )
Seat 5: mahdrof49 ( $20.50 USD )
Seat 6: oIIpeteyIIo ( $204.97 USD )
Seat 7: Grrr_Fish ( $100 USD )
Seat 8: Villain ( $104.34 USD )
Seat 9: biker1379 ( $77.38 USD )
Seat 10: mucker_maker ( $264.18 USD )
mahdrof49 posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
oIIpeteyIIo posts big blind [$1 USD].
salessio posts big blind [$1 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$1 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ K♠ K♣; ]
Grrr_Fish folds
Villain raises [$4 USD]
biker1379 folds
mucker_maker folds
salessio folds
Hero raises [$11 USD]
tilting_doll folds
mahdrof49 folds
oIIpeteyIIo folds
Villain calls [$8 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ T♠, J♣;, 9♠ ]
Villain checks
Hero bets [$25 USD]
Villain calls [$25 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9◊; ]
Villain checks
Hero is all-In [$63 USD]
Villain calls [$63 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ T◊; ]
Villain shows [ Q♠, Q♣; ]two pairs, Queens and Tens.
Hero shows [ K♠, K♣; ]two pairs, Kings and Tens.
Hero wins $199.50 USD from the main pot with two pairs, Kings and Tens.
oIIpeteyIIo has left the table.
++++++++++++
Gym was quite crowded at 8.15am on Saturday, but is Plus EV for me, as I can still get a free Financial Times (value to PB, £2.50). A pity that this benefit isn't really scalable....
____________
This time round it's the Pokerstars special offer. And it really is a doomswitch. I'm $100 down over 3000 hands in Sklansky dollars, and $600 down in those irritating things that you need to spend in shops. And it's been worse than that, because there are many parts of cash games that the all-in EV doesn't recognize (in particular, when the guy makes the important mistake chasing the card that he hits, but you have to pay him off because that's the way you played the hand).
But I still fall for it. The Stars offer is of 80,000 VPPs if you generate 7,500 VPPs in May. Effectively it gets you within spitting distance of Supernova, when FPPs mount up like there's no tomorrow. That's a mighty good offer and worth a good few dollars. I just wish that I was winning on the way to getting it.
Anyhoo, after dumping $250 on Stars over 90 minutes (75 minutes and 300 hands before I won a showdown!) I gave up and went to the gym. I sat down at Party and this hands appeared, the very first hand.
It's interesting because it actually harks back to one of the hands that I posted a couple of days ago.
And, yes, in this case I was also 95% certain that opponent had QQ, but three months ago I would not have played this hand this way.
$100 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, May 23,
Table Table 125996 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: salessio ( $100 USD )
Seat 2: Kulturbeutel ( $17 USD )
Seat 3: Hero ( $100 USD )
Seat 4: tilting_doll ( $82 USD )
Seat 5: mahdrof49 ( $20.50 USD )
Seat 6: oIIpeteyIIo ( $204.97 USD )
Seat 7: Grrr_Fish ( $100 USD )
Seat 8: Villain ( $104.34 USD )
Seat 9: biker1379 ( $77.38 USD )
Seat 10: mucker_maker ( $264.18 USD )
mahdrof49 posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
oIIpeteyIIo posts big blind [$1 USD].
salessio posts big blind [$1 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$1 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ K♠ K♣; ]
Grrr_Fish folds
Villain raises [$4 USD]
biker1379 folds
mucker_maker folds
salessio folds
Hero raises [$11 USD]
tilting_doll folds
mahdrof49 folds
oIIpeteyIIo folds
Villain calls [$8 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ T♠, J♣;, 9♠ ]
Villain checks
Hero bets [$25 USD]
Villain calls [$25 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9◊; ]
Villain checks
Hero is all-In [$63 USD]
Villain calls [$63 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ T◊; ]
Villain shows [ Q♠, Q♣; ]two pairs, Queens and Tens.
Hero shows [ K♠, K♣; ]two pairs, Kings and Tens.
Hero wins $199.50 USD from the main pot with two pairs, Kings and Tens.
oIIpeteyIIo has left the table.
++++++++++++
Gym was quite crowded at 8.15am on Saturday, but is Plus EV for me, as I can still get a free Financial Times (value to PB, £2.50). A pity that this benefit isn't really scalable....
____________
