Jul. 2nd, 2009

Scorchio

Jul. 2nd, 2009 07:36 am
peterbirks: (Default)
First of all, big upps to Andy for clocking the Sunday Warm Up on Stars on, er, Sunday. Another nice six-figure earner.

Not sure how he kept the concentration in the heat, which is beginning to get a little wearing.

I made it to the Lloyd's Press Party last night — and actually bumped into some non-Informa people whom I knew! Mairi had been at the Films award, while one of the Sarahs whom I met in Gibraltar (from Post) was also there. Heavens, I'm becoming quite the networker.

++++++

I made some back of the envelope calculations on how many hands I need to play this month if I want to achieve the various "targets", and it doesn't look good. Alternatives include moving up in stakes during the week as well as at weekends, playing more tables at a time, or giving up on sleep.

A good last day in the first half pushed the winnings to $11.8k (cash) or $14.3k (including the holiday prize). That's a tough act for me to follow in the second half at the stakes I am currently playing.

Oh, and Noble Poker put $25 in my account 'cos I hadn't used it for ages. Ultimate did the same and I have managed to lose $15 of it. Had got it up to $35 (with $18 at a 5c-10c table! Wow!) when I managed to get it all in on the turn against a nutter who had a flush draw. 72% EV is no good. Must Remember.

Noble gave me a chance to look at the micro-stakes NL tables on the I-Poker network. Millions of them, all with 12%-13% VPIP. That's one hell of a lot of bots playing each other to death. Of course, I-Poker doesn't care, since it's all income. But it does rather restrict the opportunities to do anything with the $25. I suspect I might have to try some PLO, or learn one of the variant games.

+++++

Going through a bit of a tough time of it emotionally, but it will be worth it in the long run. Wish I was flying to the Cote d'Azur tomorrow.

++++++

Went short on sterling-dollar yesterday at 1.6456, less than an hour before it spiked upwards by about half a dollar. However, common sense seems to have prevailed this morning and I am back in the black. Not really sure about my target, however (although I have a solid stop-loss of $1.70). It's a September contract, and I see quite a lot of potential sterling weakness. $1.47? Or take the short-term $1.56/$1.60?

IG Index has increased the spread, the bastards. It's now 12 cents for the three-month contract. Put in perspective, that means that if I am right 60% of the time and wrong 40% of the time, and I take equal profits and losses when I am right and when I am wrong, then IG Index takes half my winnings. If I am right just 55% of the time, all I do is break even.

On the plus side, the added volatility makes it more likely that I will be right more often! (Discuss).

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