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Risk on Risk off
Jan. 13th, 2012 08:28 pmI started the year assuming a couple of things in macro-economic terms: (1) that output would be depressed in 2012 and (2) that this would filter through to the so-called "commodity currencies" (particularly the Aussie and Candadian dollars, henceforth AUD and CAD respectively).
So I went long US$ against both of them
Well, that line of thought went tits up pretty quickly. Both of those positions are still open, but I'll be happy to take a hundred quid loss on the AUD position and a break-even on the CAD position.
What had not occurred to me was that the AUD and CAD would become beneficiaries of the "carry trade", whereby you borrow in one currency (with low interest rates) in order to invest in another. So, although the US$ has been doing fine against other major currencies, it's gone a bit pear-shaped against the commodity currencies, even though people are not bullish about the world economy in 2012.
Luckily I also went short the euro at 1.29 vs US$. Of course, I could be sitting on a position three times as big starting at 1.3450, but hindsight is a wonderful thing. So, overall the damage so far this year remains limited.
France has lost its triple A rating, which can't be good news for either Sarkozy or the French banks.
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Vaguely enjoyed the first Robert Downey Sherlock (from LoveFilm), although not enough to watch it again for the appearance of Tom Watt as a coach driver or Miles Jupp as a waiter. The Mark Gatiss "Hounds of baskerville" was slightly disappointing, but only by the high standards the series has set itself. It was almost as if the whole episode was a half-hearted scene-setter for the final episode showdown between Sherlock and Moriarty - bringing "The Adventures" to an end. At that rate there could be 12 more episodes (the second and third collections) or four more series. If so, excellent.
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Training continues to progress. Bought a weightbelt from Holland & Barrett, and another rucksack from JD Sports (just opened at Liverpool St station -- incredible to believe that there aren't a number of sports gear shops around there, but that JD Sports is the first one, and it's tiny.
I was a bit out of practice with the deadlifts, so we worked back into it slowly. We're going to try to split the squats and deadlifts (one each week or even a combination of the two) so that the technique gets grooved in before the next attempt at a PB. Took today off, although I might do a few home exercises later.
_____________
So I went long US$ against both of them
Well, that line of thought went tits up pretty quickly. Both of those positions are still open, but I'll be happy to take a hundred quid loss on the AUD position and a break-even on the CAD position.
What had not occurred to me was that the AUD and CAD would become beneficiaries of the "carry trade", whereby you borrow in one currency (with low interest rates) in order to invest in another. So, although the US$ has been doing fine against other major currencies, it's gone a bit pear-shaped against the commodity currencies, even though people are not bullish about the world economy in 2012.
Luckily I also went short the euro at 1.29 vs US$. Of course, I could be sitting on a position three times as big starting at 1.3450, but hindsight is a wonderful thing. So, overall the damage so far this year remains limited.
France has lost its triple A rating, which can't be good news for either Sarkozy or the French banks.
++++++++++
Vaguely enjoyed the first Robert Downey Sherlock (from LoveFilm), although not enough to watch it again for the appearance of Tom Watt as a coach driver or Miles Jupp as a waiter. The Mark Gatiss "Hounds of baskerville" was slightly disappointing, but only by the high standards the series has set itself. It was almost as if the whole episode was a half-hearted scene-setter for the final episode showdown between Sherlock and Moriarty - bringing "The Adventures" to an end. At that rate there could be 12 more episodes (the second and third collections) or four more series. If so, excellent.
+++++++++++
Training continues to progress. Bought a weightbelt from Holland & Barrett, and another rucksack from JD Sports (just opened at Liverpool St station -- incredible to believe that there aren't a number of sports gear shops around there, but that JD Sports is the first one, and it's tiny.
I was a bit out of practice with the deadlifts, so we worked back into it slowly. We're going to try to split the squats and deadlifts (one each week or even a combination of the two) so that the technique gets grooved in before the next attempt at a PB. Took today off, although I might do a few home exercises later.
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