Re: The Aardvark says...

Date: 2010-11-26 06:58 am (UTC)
The exit will definitely come from a greyish swan trigger point that you and I know is going to happen, but which will still catch us by surprise when it does (see the paradox "headmaster tells the school that he will be giving them a day off this month and that he will only tell them on the morning of the day off itself, and that it will be a surprise when he tells them" -- which leads one bright spark to calculate that he cannot therefore give the school a day off that month). And, yes, this will mean that senior bondholders will finally get it in the neck -- perhaps fine for equitable sharing of the pain, but also rather worrying in terms of euro-implications (which is one reason that everyone in the EU is frantically trying to stop it happening).

PJ
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