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peterbirksWell, the tenants have returned from their holiday, just in time to see me off on mine. As per usual, far from the eager anticipation felt by most people, I have this normal sense of dread of venturing into the unknown. If I'd been around in the late 1400s, I would definitely not have had Christopher Columbus as a "Like" on Facebook. I'm getting old. I like what I know. Of course, you can only get to know somewhere by going there for a first time, and at least this time I will be going with other people who have been there before. And swimming pools and bars and restaurants are pretty much the same everywhere in the world (that I am likely to visit) these days. All those who criticize globalization and the death of local culture, fuck off. Globalization is happening because that, in the main, is what the local people want. It's only visiting (rich) westerners who hanker after what they incorrectly called "unspoilt". In a sense, that word "unspoilt" is a direct descendant of 19th and 20th century anthropologists who called newly discovered societies "primitive" rather than "different". That two words both imply that we have changed and they haven't, although the former seems to imply that we have changed for the worse, while the latter implied that we had changed for the better.
If I go to Nice and I pass the McDonald's, I don't see it as being the haven for US tourists while the locals all pop down the local café for some genuine Salade Niçoise. It's the tourists hunting down the 'authentic' food, while the French kids flock to McDonald's. To them, the McDonald's is progress.
So, bring on the local café offering the full English breakfast. Bring on the Spots Bar showing "Live FOOTBALL FOOTBALL FOOTBALL every night!!!" (although you won't see me there, obv. Bring on island-wide free wi-fi. Whether I like what's happened to these tourist places is neither here nor there. It's their country.
+++++++++++
The alarm has been set for 2.45am, and I have to drag the suitcase and travel bag to the N36 bus stop to Victoria. Then I have to negotiate the ticket machine (more "fear of the new" for Birks -- the most minor new things bring on "the fear") and, with luck, get myself onto the 4.30am Gatwick Express. Any other day bar Sunday I could have done my usual London Bridge route for far less money, but the trains to Gatwick from London Bridge start much later on a Sunday.
I always allow a ridiculous amount of error-time for flights -- a naturally pessimistic viewpoint that has meant that I have only ever missed one flight in my life (and even that one I thought that I had arrived in time, but the BA woman at Heathrow insisted that I hadn't). As such I have little sympathy for anyone who misses a flight "because.... " , I just feel that they should have allowed for that possibility in the first place and not have assumed that everything would run smoothly.
Speaking of which, if everything runs smoothly, I'll be sitting poolside in a little over 24 hours' time, looking forward to my first two-week-long summer break for well over a decade. But the fitness regime contnues. Will be watching the diet and trying to get in as much training as possible.
It might not show, but I've cut about three inches off my waistline since the end of February and probably put about an inch on my chest measurement. Thursday was a particularly gruelling session with PT Nick, to the extent that there was nothing left in the tank after 45 minutes. But I was very pleased with some 100kg deep squats. However, following that with some "sumo lifts" and then a sequence of 150kg and then 170kg leg press reps has taken its toll on my legs. The stiffness started seeping in on Friday and it's still there now, although I'm hopeful that it will fade before tomorrow morning's trek with the luggage.
++++++++++++
I've completely done my bollocks in the past week, selling out of gold too soon, buying into the dollar too soon, and watching my equities sink like lead weights in a swimming pool. Then I went four buy-ins down for my first lumpy loss online for a months or so. Standard stuff. A bad beat, then a couple of AK v KK Small blind vs Big blind, no sets flopped in 1000 hands, losing tight small hands by a single pip on the kicker. And so on. I was averaging 62% win $ at showdown this month. Yesterday I averaged 28%. Still up on the month in open play, though, which is good, since bonuses seem very thin on the ground this month.
+++++++++++++
I'm still bullish on the dollar, and, if it weren't for the fact that I've completely missed $300 of the gold zoom, somewhat bullish on gold. I also think that oil has been oversold, but I've never really punted oil, and it's a dangerous arena if you don't know what you are doing. Every time in the past that I've punted unfamiliar commodities (e.g. wheat) I seem to have turned out right, but still lost money. Just because oil is a good bet at the moment, it doesn't mean that it might not be a much better bet in six months' time (meaning that, if you take the bet now, you will do your bollocks).
++++++++++++++
The most noteworthy events of this week have been the incredible volatility -- this was a week that the year's bonus was either made or lost, so I suspect we might see a few traders begin to sit on their hands, while others will be trading more frantically -- and the market's epiphany that the banking system in Europe might actually be insolvent. Nothing else could explain the huge hits taken by Soc Gen and BNP Paribas. Whether the markets are shooting the right target (the regulators banning short-selling certainly aren't) is another matter. Over the past month we've seen a large number of impairments taken on Greek debt by financial institutions, to the extent that a Greek default is now survivable by most financial institutions (odd fact of the week -- the best performing bank on the markets last week was the National Bank of Greece). So I have to assume that the hits on Soc Gen in particular relate to Italian debt. But, if that is the case, surely Intesa Sanpaolo should have suffered more? After all, the one plus that Italy has is that most of its debt is held domestically. It still needs to get its act in order, but the apocalypse is not around the the next corner, or even the corner after that.
The big "winner" in the past few weeks has surely been Ireland. It's now borrowing at a lower cost, appears to have won its tax-rate argument (the EU's attention is now very much elsewhere) and has not suffered a flight of business. Sure, the property market is still a total disaster, but knocking down those half-built houses will be a kind of Keynesian stimulus. And there'll be fewer foreign holidays and fewer BMWs. Bad for the consumer, but good for the Irish economy. The great thing about Ireland, alone amongst the peripheries, I think, is that it has not indulged in delusional self-denial. As such it's working really hard to sort out a godawful mess, and not making a bad job of so doing. Meanwhile Greece indulges in the old habit of saying yes, but not actually managing anything. Greek GDP down 7% year on year? No surprise. That doesn't mean that less work is being done -- it's just that the old GDP consisted of a lot of people being paid for doing nothing. They are still doping nothing, but at least now they aren't being paid for it.
Ireland's second great strength here is an efficient tax system (perhaps one of the few reasons they have to be grateful to England!). That doesn't mean that there isn't fiddling. But it does mean that people understand the need for taxes. It looks to me as if tax revenues in Ireland have held up remarkably well given the extent to which much revenue (from the land boom) vanished overnight.
++++++++++++++
Time for a nap, I think.
____________
If I go to Nice and I pass the McDonald's, I don't see it as being the haven for US tourists while the locals all pop down the local café for some genuine Salade Niçoise. It's the tourists hunting down the 'authentic' food, while the French kids flock to McDonald's. To them, the McDonald's is progress.
So, bring on the local café offering the full English breakfast. Bring on the Spots Bar showing "Live FOOTBALL FOOTBALL FOOTBALL every night!!!" (although you won't see me there, obv. Bring on island-wide free wi-fi. Whether I like what's happened to these tourist places is neither here nor there. It's their country.
+++++++++++
The alarm has been set for 2.45am, and I have to drag the suitcase and travel bag to the N36 bus stop to Victoria. Then I have to negotiate the ticket machine (more "fear of the new" for Birks -- the most minor new things bring on "the fear") and, with luck, get myself onto the 4.30am Gatwick Express. Any other day bar Sunday I could have done my usual London Bridge route for far less money, but the trains to Gatwick from London Bridge start much later on a Sunday.
I always allow a ridiculous amount of error-time for flights -- a naturally pessimistic viewpoint that has meant that I have only ever missed one flight in my life (and even that one I thought that I had arrived in time, but the BA woman at Heathrow insisted that I hadn't). As such I have little sympathy for anyone who misses a flight "because.... " , I just feel that they should have allowed for that possibility in the first place and not have assumed that everything would run smoothly.
Speaking of which, if everything runs smoothly, I'll be sitting poolside in a little over 24 hours' time, looking forward to my first two-week-long summer break for well over a decade. But the fitness regime contnues. Will be watching the diet and trying to get in as much training as possible.
It might not show, but I've cut about three inches off my waistline since the end of February and probably put about an inch on my chest measurement. Thursday was a particularly gruelling session with PT Nick, to the extent that there was nothing left in the tank after 45 minutes. But I was very pleased with some 100kg deep squats. However, following that with some "sumo lifts" and then a sequence of 150kg and then 170kg leg press reps has taken its toll on my legs. The stiffness started seeping in on Friday and it's still there now, although I'm hopeful that it will fade before tomorrow morning's trek with the luggage.
++++++++++++
I've completely done my bollocks in the past week, selling out of gold too soon, buying into the dollar too soon, and watching my equities sink like lead weights in a swimming pool. Then I went four buy-ins down for my first lumpy loss online for a months or so. Standard stuff. A bad beat, then a couple of AK v KK Small blind vs Big blind, no sets flopped in 1000 hands, losing tight small hands by a single pip on the kicker. And so on. I was averaging 62% win $ at showdown this month. Yesterday I averaged 28%. Still up on the month in open play, though, which is good, since bonuses seem very thin on the ground this month.
+++++++++++++
I'm still bullish on the dollar, and, if it weren't for the fact that I've completely missed $300 of the gold zoom, somewhat bullish on gold. I also think that oil has been oversold, but I've never really punted oil, and it's a dangerous arena if you don't know what you are doing. Every time in the past that I've punted unfamiliar commodities (e.g. wheat) I seem to have turned out right, but still lost money. Just because oil is a good bet at the moment, it doesn't mean that it might not be a much better bet in six months' time (meaning that, if you take the bet now, you will do your bollocks).
++++++++++++++
The most noteworthy events of this week have been the incredible volatility -- this was a week that the year's bonus was either made or lost, so I suspect we might see a few traders begin to sit on their hands, while others will be trading more frantically -- and the market's epiphany that the banking system in Europe might actually be insolvent. Nothing else could explain the huge hits taken by Soc Gen and BNP Paribas. Whether the markets are shooting the right target (the regulators banning short-selling certainly aren't) is another matter. Over the past month we've seen a large number of impairments taken on Greek debt by financial institutions, to the extent that a Greek default is now survivable by most financial institutions (odd fact of the week -- the best performing bank on the markets last week was the National Bank of Greece). So I have to assume that the hits on Soc Gen in particular relate to Italian debt. But, if that is the case, surely Intesa Sanpaolo should have suffered more? After all, the one plus that Italy has is that most of its debt is held domestically. It still needs to get its act in order, but the apocalypse is not around the the next corner, or even the corner after that.
The big "winner" in the past few weeks has surely been Ireland. It's now borrowing at a lower cost, appears to have won its tax-rate argument (the EU's attention is now very much elsewhere) and has not suffered a flight of business. Sure, the property market is still a total disaster, but knocking down those half-built houses will be a kind of Keynesian stimulus. And there'll be fewer foreign holidays and fewer BMWs. Bad for the consumer, but good for the Irish economy. The great thing about Ireland, alone amongst the peripheries, I think, is that it has not indulged in delusional self-denial. As such it's working really hard to sort out a godawful mess, and not making a bad job of so doing. Meanwhile Greece indulges in the old habit of saying yes, but not actually managing anything. Greek GDP down 7% year on year? No surprise. That doesn't mean that less work is being done -- it's just that the old GDP consisted of a lot of people being paid for doing nothing. They are still doping nothing, but at least now they aren't being paid for it.
Ireland's second great strength here is an efficient tax system (perhaps one of the few reasons they have to be grateful to England!). That doesn't mean that there isn't fiddling. But it does mean that people understand the need for taxes. It looks to me as if tax revenues in Ireland have held up remarkably well given the extent to which much revenue (from the land boom) vanished overnight.
++++++++++++++
Time for a nap, I think.
____________
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no subject
Date: 2011-08-13 04:52 pm (UTC)Doing your bollocks? Not a concept that exists oop north, but I'd suggest a variance of a quarter of an inch either way.
Unless, that is, you get terribly excited on holiday.
no subject
Date: 2011-08-13 04:58 pm (UTC)As far as I can see, it's a financial world made out of lego bricks, but without the durability.
Decadence
Date: 2011-08-13 10:26 pm (UTC)I nearly messaged you last week when you put up an economic analysis to say that the Coalition wankers particularly Osborne were looking very smug when commenting on the Euro situation and the US downgrade, with their claim that their austerity programme was the bees knees. I thought they might be counting a premature chicken or two. As per the fairground "whack a mole" analogy it took a mere 48 hours for the riots to kick off and give them something to break sweat over. Bit scary all round, even a token effort down Bletchley's Queensway, but not too many jewellers or sports shops to loot, so Joe Coral lost a window and the greengrocer his supply of melons (for missile use rather than consumption it appears).
I happened to switch over to Newsnight last night just in time to catch David Starkey's alarming contribution. I didnt fully understand his analysis. Actually I wasnt even close to understanding it. But then the normally resourceful Emily Maitlis was also rather thrown and the two other contributors seemed to be equally baffled. I'm of the opinion that a guy like Starkey's (lack of) empathy with the disenfranchised youth of the inner city disqualifies him from being a prime contributor to this sort of debate.
On the other hand, Frank Field popped up (mole-like) to comment on the issues and bang on quite interestingly about parenting and how said subject should be an integral part of the school curriculum, integrated into the subject areas and not, he said, "a ghetto subject just for the thickos". Tell it like it is Frank !!
Anyway I wish you well. Enjoy the break and make sure you apply the sunblock. Cheers. Richard