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peterbirksI'm not the greatest fan of Christmas. I have no "bah, humbug" attitude, and I love to see the joy that it brings to many people. But, for obvious reasons, it isn't really my kind of thing. Social gatherings are invariably my idea of hell, and I envy those who actually look forward to "the gathering of the family". I quietly suspect that these people are outnumbered by those who can't bear the thought of meeting up with brothers and sisters and cousins and uncles and aunts and spoilt nephews/"princesses" -- none of whom the poor victim has anything in common with.
I have a friend (he knows who he is, but I shall maintain anonymity), whose wife's sister married a policeman. You can imagine Christmas gatherings between two people of the liberal labour left and a bloke whose imagination spread no further than "enforcing the law". Doubtless he believed in the criminal underclass as well.
There must be many such gatherings, where those present really have little in common with each other except blood.
++++++
I went over to my mum's on Christmas morning, collected my lovely espresso machine present (De Longhi 820) and promptly left my phone behind when driving home. Realized this when I got to Ladywell (about 3/4 of the way home) and turned round. Kept telling myself "don't have an accident. This is just the kind of situation where people have accidents). This mantra worked well until I arrived at the house and pulled in to park the car. The pavement juts out here for no apparent reason (apart from the fact that it's by a junction) and as I turned into the parking space, my front left tyre caught the corner of the pavement and promptly burst.
Not good news on a Christmas Day and somewhat upsetting.
As it happens the delay was only a couple of hours, and I consoled myself later with the thought that clearly there was a weak spot on that tyre that could have gone at any moment, so perhaps it was lucky that I was only going four miles an hour and was outside my mum's house, rather than going 70 miles an hour on the motorway to Brighton, or whatever.
And I have to take the car back to Ancaster Motors at the beginning of January to get the new wing mirror fitted, so all that it means is a couple of hundred quid for two new tyres (the spare tyre is only just inside the legal limit, so I'll get two new front tyres and put the front right tyre in as the spare).
I've been avoiding "live" radio and TV for the past few days, doing my best to catch up on stuff already recorded. I made the effort to see Doctor Who, and thoroughly enjoyed it. I will also catch up on the AbFab, even if it is a bit past its sell-by date. No point in watching the recorded Downton Abbey before I actually get round to watching series Two!.
++++++
As poker heads towards a wind-down for the year, I appear to have lost the grand sum of $42. I was never more than $1,000 up and never more than $1,600 down. Most of the damage was done early in the year, although there was a $2k downswing in October that finally caused me to give up on "serious" play. Since then I've won about $1k back, but have played no more than 11,000 handa a month. When you consider that earlier in the year I was clocking up $40k hands a month, you can see what I mean by "cutting back".. Fewer hours, fewer tables (now just 6-tabling) and lower stakes. I' sticking to 25c-50c NL until I am "in front" in open play overall on Pokerstars. Incredibly I am in front at $1-$2 NL and in front at 25c-50c NL, but I'm 30 buy-ins down at 50c-$1 NL. Why that particular stake level should be such a bogey for me, I can't really figure out, but clearly I am not "in the zone" with my opponents. I suspect that they are just a little bit more ABC than I give them credit for (i.e., closer to 25c-50c than they are to $1-$2).
I actually enjoy $1-$2 the most, because there's an intellectual challenge here. But the marginal pleasure that I get from winning cash is too far outweighed by the hurt I feel when losing it. There is of course a paradox here. I like that "edgy" feeling when playing, but I don't like the comedown after playing. At the lower stakes I don't get that "edgy" feeling and the result is that I get bored. But that means I don't have a comedown after I stop playing. I can treat it much more as a way of making money than as a route to a chemical high.
In a sense this means that my "addiction" to online poker is far lower at the lower stakes - indeed it's almost a kind of methadone to keep me away from more serious addictions. But that also means that I am not playing to my best. I know that I've made some crushing moves at $1-$2 against good players, and the kick you get from that almost outweighs the money won. Such moves at 25c-50c are, shall we say, "meh" moves that don't really require any deep thought. You've done them before and will do them again, and they will continue to work, provided you pick the right kind of player.
++++++++++
This has been a good year in many ways, notwithstanding the poker performance (and, even there, I've got my act back together). I've lost a stone in weight and three inches (oh, ok, maybe 2.5 inches after Vegas and Xmas) from the waist. I'm now fit again and looking forward to a tough training regime next year with good results by next November. It's hard to say how much progress I will make, but if I practise a lot and give it my best, I expect the progress to be at least reasonable and, at best, astounding. I've got a (not very hidden) aim to reach 180kg to 190kg in a dead lift and a 160kg to 180kg squat. Plus unaided chin-ups, pull-ups and dips, four to 10 of each).
All of that necessarily means losing some fat and putting on some muscle, probably in that order. Oh, and rewiring some neuron connections in the brain. I'm convinced that brain-mapping has some application in muscle-training and muscle-building, although I'm not quite sure how!
+++++++++
I'm off to San Francisco in March, Bermuda in June, perhaps Nice in May and/or September and perhaps Las Vegas in November. I'd quite like to walk into a million quid next week so that I could ease up on my workload with Informa. But that ain't going to happen, so it's still another eight years or so to retirement. Bleaggh. But, hell, if I am worried (and I've had a savings ratio of about 70% for the past nine years) how bad must it be for people whose savings ratio is something laughable like 20%? Or, in some cases, 0% or less? The future for many people my age is horrifically bleak, with the only operation being "thought-shopping" -- just put those unpleasant thoughts in the bottom of the drawer and only bring them to the surface when absolutely necessary.
+++++++++++
You'll note that I haven't mentioned the economic situation. That doesn't mean that it has gone away. Indeed, the powers that be in Greece and Italy are probably delighted that it has dropped out of the headlines, because that means they can quietly shift more money out of their own banks and into the London and Parisian property markets.
The banking system is slowly edging towards a credit crisis. The massive response to the ECB's €450bn "cheap loan" package shows how bad things are. This, actually, was probably the best thing that the ECB could have done (look how it reduced the medium-term borrowing rate for Spain), and if the ECB can find a way to carry on doing this, then financial armageddon might be staved off. But I can't see the EU letting this go on ad infinitum. We are still hearing all the wrong noises from Germany. eventually, when German exports fall off a cliff, they will realize that you can't demand "financial prudence" from your main export markets and expect everything to carry on as before in the home country. Unfortunately by then it will be too late.
I'm wearily predicting 2012 to be the year that history will look back on as the start of "the great depression of the 2010s". Gradually the cogs are seizing up. What this means for what to do with your money, heaven knows. Not gold, that's for sure. And probably not "usable" commodities such as platinum. I remain bullish for the dollar -- a view I've held for many months and one which I see no reason to change. I'm also actually quite bullish about sterling. I'm heavily bearish the Australian and Canadian dollars, and these are currently my only open FX positions (down a couple of hundred quid at the moment, BTW).
Money will continue to flow into New York, Paris and London property. And, speak it softly, if I were 30 years younger and had the wherewithal, I'd like to make some kind of play on Detroit. I think that in 50 years time people will look back at the prices there as they are today and will think the same as they do now for Greenwich Village, or Battery Park. or Tribeca, in the late 1950s.
Enough. Time for some lunch.
___________
I have a friend (he knows who he is, but I shall maintain anonymity), whose wife's sister married a policeman. You can imagine Christmas gatherings between two people of the liberal labour left and a bloke whose imagination spread no further than "enforcing the law". Doubtless he believed in the criminal underclass as well.
There must be many such gatherings, where those present really have little in common with each other except blood.
++++++
I went over to my mum's on Christmas morning, collected my lovely espresso machine present (De Longhi 820) and promptly left my phone behind when driving home. Realized this when I got to Ladywell (about 3/4 of the way home) and turned round. Kept telling myself "don't have an accident. This is just the kind of situation where people have accidents). This mantra worked well until I arrived at the house and pulled in to park the car. The pavement juts out here for no apparent reason (apart from the fact that it's by a junction) and as I turned into the parking space, my front left tyre caught the corner of the pavement and promptly burst.
Not good news on a Christmas Day and somewhat upsetting.
As it happens the delay was only a couple of hours, and I consoled myself later with the thought that clearly there was a weak spot on that tyre that could have gone at any moment, so perhaps it was lucky that I was only going four miles an hour and was outside my mum's house, rather than going 70 miles an hour on the motorway to Brighton, or whatever.
And I have to take the car back to Ancaster Motors at the beginning of January to get the new wing mirror fitted, so all that it means is a couple of hundred quid for two new tyres (the spare tyre is only just inside the legal limit, so I'll get two new front tyres and put the front right tyre in as the spare).
I've been avoiding "live" radio and TV for the past few days, doing my best to catch up on stuff already recorded. I made the effort to see Doctor Who, and thoroughly enjoyed it. I will also catch up on the AbFab, even if it is a bit past its sell-by date. No point in watching the recorded Downton Abbey before I actually get round to watching series Two!.
++++++
As poker heads towards a wind-down for the year, I appear to have lost the grand sum of $42. I was never more than $1,000 up and never more than $1,600 down. Most of the damage was done early in the year, although there was a $2k downswing in October that finally caused me to give up on "serious" play. Since then I've won about $1k back, but have played no more than 11,000 handa a month. When you consider that earlier in the year I was clocking up $40k hands a month, you can see what I mean by "cutting back".. Fewer hours, fewer tables (now just 6-tabling) and lower stakes. I' sticking to 25c-50c NL until I am "in front" in open play overall on Pokerstars. Incredibly I am in front at $1-$2 NL and in front at 25c-50c NL, but I'm 30 buy-ins down at 50c-$1 NL. Why that particular stake level should be such a bogey for me, I can't really figure out, but clearly I am not "in the zone" with my opponents. I suspect that they are just a little bit more ABC than I give them credit for (i.e., closer to 25c-50c than they are to $1-$2).
I actually enjoy $1-$2 the most, because there's an intellectual challenge here. But the marginal pleasure that I get from winning cash is too far outweighed by the hurt I feel when losing it. There is of course a paradox here. I like that "edgy" feeling when playing, but I don't like the comedown after playing. At the lower stakes I don't get that "edgy" feeling and the result is that I get bored. But that means I don't have a comedown after I stop playing. I can treat it much more as a way of making money than as a route to a chemical high.
In a sense this means that my "addiction" to online poker is far lower at the lower stakes - indeed it's almost a kind of methadone to keep me away from more serious addictions. But that also means that I am not playing to my best. I know that I've made some crushing moves at $1-$2 against good players, and the kick you get from that almost outweighs the money won. Such moves at 25c-50c are, shall we say, "meh" moves that don't really require any deep thought. You've done them before and will do them again, and they will continue to work, provided you pick the right kind of player.
++++++++++
This has been a good year in many ways, notwithstanding the poker performance (and, even there, I've got my act back together). I've lost a stone in weight and three inches (oh, ok, maybe 2.5 inches after Vegas and Xmas) from the waist. I'm now fit again and looking forward to a tough training regime next year with good results by next November. It's hard to say how much progress I will make, but if I practise a lot and give it my best, I expect the progress to be at least reasonable and, at best, astounding. I've got a (not very hidden) aim to reach 180kg to 190kg in a dead lift and a 160kg to 180kg squat. Plus unaided chin-ups, pull-ups and dips, four to 10 of each).
All of that necessarily means losing some fat and putting on some muscle, probably in that order. Oh, and rewiring some neuron connections in the brain. I'm convinced that brain-mapping has some application in muscle-training and muscle-building, although I'm not quite sure how!
+++++++++
I'm off to San Francisco in March, Bermuda in June, perhaps Nice in May and/or September and perhaps Las Vegas in November. I'd quite like to walk into a million quid next week so that I could ease up on my workload with Informa. But that ain't going to happen, so it's still another eight years or so to retirement. Bleaggh. But, hell, if I am worried (and I've had a savings ratio of about 70% for the past nine years) how bad must it be for people whose savings ratio is something laughable like 20%? Or, in some cases, 0% or less? The future for many people my age is horrifically bleak, with the only operation being "thought-shopping" -- just put those unpleasant thoughts in the bottom of the drawer and only bring them to the surface when absolutely necessary.
+++++++++++
You'll note that I haven't mentioned the economic situation. That doesn't mean that it has gone away. Indeed, the powers that be in Greece and Italy are probably delighted that it has dropped out of the headlines, because that means they can quietly shift more money out of their own banks and into the London and Parisian property markets.
The banking system is slowly edging towards a credit crisis. The massive response to the ECB's €450bn "cheap loan" package shows how bad things are. This, actually, was probably the best thing that the ECB could have done (look how it reduced the medium-term borrowing rate for Spain), and if the ECB can find a way to carry on doing this, then financial armageddon might be staved off. But I can't see the EU letting this go on ad infinitum. We are still hearing all the wrong noises from Germany. eventually, when German exports fall off a cliff, they will realize that you can't demand "financial prudence" from your main export markets and expect everything to carry on as before in the home country. Unfortunately by then it will be too late.
I'm wearily predicting 2012 to be the year that history will look back on as the start of "the great depression of the 2010s". Gradually the cogs are seizing up. What this means for what to do with your money, heaven knows. Not gold, that's for sure. And probably not "usable" commodities such as platinum. I remain bullish for the dollar -- a view I've held for many months and one which I see no reason to change. I'm also actually quite bullish about sterling. I'm heavily bearish the Australian and Canadian dollars, and these are currently my only open FX positions (down a couple of hundred quid at the moment, BTW).
Money will continue to flow into New York, Paris and London property. And, speak it softly, if I were 30 years younger and had the wherewithal, I'd like to make some kind of play on Detroit. I think that in 50 years time people will look back at the prices there as they are today and will think the same as they do now for Greenwich Village, or Battery Park. or Tribeca, in the late 1950s.
Enough. Time for some lunch.
___________
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no subject
Date: 2011-12-31 07:50 pm (UTC)Well, at least I'm still officially 49 for another year, unless some brainless idiot asks for my passport.
I like the idea of us both being survivors. I think we should both celebrate that fact. I've got a minor quibble though, which is that I am ineluctably driven to Rattus Norvegicus IV by that term.
On the other hand, given the shit-storm that is about to dump on the whole of Western Europe in the next twelve months, it's possible that the Stranglers had it right.
Happy New Year, Mon Brave!
no subject
Date: 2012-01-01 03:07 am (UTC)No More Heroes any more? Perhaps. I'm still trying to work out my Nero strategy as Europe burns. It's bloody hard. Here was I convinced that commodity currencies this year would be a sure sell, and an FT analyst recommended buying them as a "safe haven".
Am almost tempted to short gold as well. And my index-linkeds in the US have done so well that it's sorely tempting to take profits (I mean, 45% capital gain in three years? That just doesn't happen with bonds.)
But I think that the "bullish on equities" line is the most controversial (and the riskiest). There's a tangible (i.e., more than 5%) chance of a bad crash, while the chance of a (small but reasonable) rise is probably no more than 30%. In Taleb terms, that probably makes equities a sell, even though I expect the trade to go wrong. But it's a close-run thing. So, in Eastwood terms it's "do I feel lucky?" and what's my attitude to risk?
I think what I would REALLY like to do is borrow more money and buy another property, somewhere with reasonable yield and not too massive a downside on the capital side. Must look at the numbers on this a bit more seriously.
PJ
no subject
Date: 2012-01-01 03:08 am (UTC)PJ
no subject
Date: 2012-01-01 06:19 pm (UTC)Good hook, that. I've just binged, and neither of the Roberts (Ludlum or Harris) have used it. Although, oddly enough, another Robert (Henderson: "Last year I wrote an article, The Nero Spirit, based on a visitation I had from the Lord;" oh deary me) has come close.
I seriously think you could run up a one or two thousand word freelance article with this hook and doing nothing much more than summarizing your thoughts over the last two years, and then selling it on to the Spectator and/or the Economist. Quite seriously. A fine hook is a terrible thing to waste, as Mr Quayle never said.
Look, if you're not going to take a punt on this, then I will.
I think the "safe haven" currencies, fwiw, are the ones that supply to their larger next-door commodity neighbours. Thus, I suspect that the New Zealand dollar will do quite well. I'm sort of in two minds about the Argentinian peso (after all, the place is traditionally run by corrupt loonies). The Mexican peso is liquid enough to be worth looking at.
no subject
Date: 2012-01-01 06:25 pm (UTC)Happy New Year, Mrs Birks!
no subject
Date: 2012-01-03 02:49 pm (UTC)Unfortuinately Part B (actually writing the damned thing) just seems like too much effort for the pathetic reward and the oodles of shit you have to suffer from trolls and the like whenever you write for a wider audience. The wankers virtually think they OWN you the second anything appears for the "general public". Meanwhile the New Statesman has paid you six-and-threepence for a 2,400 piece, claiming that the "prestige" of being published in such an illustrious publication should make up for this.
Unfortunately, a large number of writers fall for this bollocks. Even in this office I've heard crap such as "pride in your work is its own reward". Er, no, producing readable stuff is what I do, and I can't imagine producing rubbish stuff. But I can quite imagine producing NO stuff at all, if you don't want to pay me. Wide exposure is a curese rather than a blessing (see above, trolls).
PJ
no subject
Date: 2012-01-05 10:55 am (UTC)You'll get the deadlift targets, I think, but the squat target is too high. Most men top out at just under 2xBW for squatting unless they're "drug assisted".
Fancy meeting up for a coffee at some point?
no subject
Date: 2012-01-05 02:34 pm (UTC)As for the targets, I actually thought that the deadlift would be tougher than the squat. Did some cardio weights today and managed 3 x 6 reps of 100kg, although I didn't go as deep as I would have liked. I really feel that 150kg is within my capability by the end of the month. Perhaps that might be the "brick wall", but I see one of the gym users knock out 220kg squats (4 reps) and he only weighs about 90kg to maybe 95kg tops. Of course, he's built like a weightlifting machine, but it's a sign of what can be done with effort (and training!). No unnaturals involved in his case either.
PJ