Inexplicable dark times
Aug. 8th, 2005 09:08 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
peterbirksIt's easy to see why, when times get bad, people go silent. To be frank, there is little one feels like less after a long losing session than proclaiming your hopelessness to the world. And when you do really feel that you have been slightly (if not very) unlucky, then it's best not to feel too bad.
But I do.
To clear my bonus on Party, I double-tabled 5-10 rather than 15-30. This should reduce variance, slightly reduce win rate, and result in a comfortable $100 bonus after a few hours. Yes?
No.
Just looking at one of the depths into Stygian horror, at one 271-hand table I see that I had a VPIP of 14.4% (a bit low, but not horrifically), and a won$ when saw flop of 42.86%. I won $ at showdown 47.6% of the time. To be frank, they look like break-even numbers at worst. So why does the number come in at minus $262? Perhaps it was that I got just 10 pairs. And I lost $59 with those. If you don't win with your pairs, you are in trouble. But the loss still seems too great. The other major losing session (136 hands) had a VPIP of 15.5% (once again, a bit low, but not worryingly so), and a won$ when-saw-flop of 42.4%. Here there was a won % at showdown percentage of 37.5%, which is low. But the net loss of $214 still seems excessive. Once again, I lost money on my pairs. And the third session (where I didn't lose so much) had a VPIP of 18.5%, a won$ when saw flop of 42% and a won $ at showdown of 57%. Now, these are winning percentages. So how come I lost $37 on the deal? Well, my Aces got cracked for $60, but I should still have won more than even $25.
So this, as they say, is worrying. I suspect that part of it is that the games were reminiscent of the type of Pokerstars $2-$4 and $3-$6 game that I have always had difficulty in beating. My aggression walks into a soft cushion, and if my opponents are hitting their pairs in the blinds, I am going to lose significantly. If they miss their pair, they fold straight away (no check-raise bluffs to try to scare me off). So, under normal circumstances, I get a lot of raise, call from the blind, fold, which wins me not very much,plus a few raise, call from the blind, call, call, (or call, raise), which costs me quite a lot. You only need the latter scenario to become more common by, say, 15% in a long session, and what looks like it should be a winning set becomes a losing one.
I write this because it's fairly depressing when you look at $350 profit in 10 hours of $15-$30, and $618 loss in seven hours (14 table hours) of $5-$10.
By this parameter, I should move up to $30-$60 if I want to win more and move down to $2-$4 if I want to do my bollocks.
I have a strong feeling that this abysmal performance over the past few weeks at $5-$10 is directly related to my play at $15-$30. What works at $15-$30, quite simply leaks me money at $5-$10. But if I were a good player, I could adapt to this; I could change my game.
Alternatively, I might just be getting my bad cards at $5-$10 and my good ones at $15-$30, which is how I want things to be!
Further alternatively, it could be the two-tabling (although I do not think that this is the case), or it could be that I am not concentrating as much (which I also doubt). No, I'm sure it's a mix of style and poor cards.
Currently £272 down on the month ($490), which is one good session at $15-$30 -- a level to which I intend to return forthwith!
Onwards and upwards.
But I do.
To clear my bonus on Party, I double-tabled 5-10 rather than 15-30. This should reduce variance, slightly reduce win rate, and result in a comfortable $100 bonus after a few hours. Yes?
No.
Just looking at one of the depths into Stygian horror, at one 271-hand table I see that I had a VPIP of 14.4% (a bit low, but not horrifically), and a won$ when saw flop of 42.86%. I won $ at showdown 47.6% of the time. To be frank, they look like break-even numbers at worst. So why does the number come in at minus $262? Perhaps it was that I got just 10 pairs. And I lost $59 with those. If you don't win with your pairs, you are in trouble. But the loss still seems too great. The other major losing session (136 hands) had a VPIP of 15.5% (once again, a bit low, but not worryingly so), and a won$ when-saw-flop of 42.4%. Here there was a won % at showdown percentage of 37.5%, which is low. But the net loss of $214 still seems excessive. Once again, I lost money on my pairs. And the third session (where I didn't lose so much) had a VPIP of 18.5%, a won$ when saw flop of 42% and a won $ at showdown of 57%. Now, these are winning percentages. So how come I lost $37 on the deal? Well, my Aces got cracked for $60, but I should still have won more than even $25.
So this, as they say, is worrying. I suspect that part of it is that the games were reminiscent of the type of Pokerstars $2-$4 and $3-$6 game that I have always had difficulty in beating. My aggression walks into a soft cushion, and if my opponents are hitting their pairs in the blinds, I am going to lose significantly. If they miss their pair, they fold straight away (no check-raise bluffs to try to scare me off). So, under normal circumstances, I get a lot of raise, call from the blind, fold, which wins me not very much,plus a few raise, call from the blind, call, call, (or call, raise), which costs me quite a lot. You only need the latter scenario to become more common by, say, 15% in a long session, and what looks like it should be a winning set becomes a losing one.
I write this because it's fairly depressing when you look at $350 profit in 10 hours of $15-$30, and $618 loss in seven hours (14 table hours) of $5-$10.
By this parameter, I should move up to $30-$60 if I want to win more and move down to $2-$4 if I want to do my bollocks.
I have a strong feeling that this abysmal performance over the past few weeks at $5-$10 is directly related to my play at $15-$30. What works at $15-$30, quite simply leaks me money at $5-$10. But if I were a good player, I could adapt to this; I could change my game.
Alternatively, I might just be getting my bad cards at $5-$10 and my good ones at $15-$30, which is how I want things to be!
Further alternatively, it could be the two-tabling (although I do not think that this is the case), or it could be that I am not concentrating as much (which I also doubt). No, I'm sure it's a mix of style and poor cards.
Currently £272 down on the month ($490), which is one good session at $15-$30 -- a level to which I intend to return forthwith!
Onwards and upwards.
no subject
Date: 2005-08-09 02:31 am (UTC)I don't play limit anymore, sticking to plo and nl, but you have hit the nail on the head with your comments about the need to adapt to differing limmits. The higher the limit, even the bad players play better and are more respectful of bets and raises. You see someone raise preflop and you 3 bet with JJ to isolate. That's the correct play there. But the lower the limit, those types of plays just don't work, and neither does semi-bluffing often. Granted, 5/10 is not 2/4, but many of those things apply to 5/10 nonetheless. Since you are having trouble adapting and have had good results with 15/30, why not just stick with that unless you don't think it's wise for your bankroll? But if you do stay at 5/10 until you get going again, which might be prudent to work out the kinks in your game, then just play differently. That means not making real thin value bets because they are more likely to play more hands that could hit on the river. It means making difficult overcalls on the river in 3 handed situations where you would normally fold in 15/30, but where in 5/10 a bluffer betting a flush draw all the way could be making a desperation bluff, only to get called by an idiot with bottom pair, and where your middle pair on the flop is still the best hand. Just pretend it's headsup in big pot situations on the river and call accordingly based on pot odds. Finally, are you sure that you are not playing too loose preflop and postflop when the pot is small because the bets are smaller than you've gotten used to in 15/30?
Good luck and good skill,
BluffTHIS!
5-10
Date: 2005-08-09 06:04 am (UTC)I think that you assessment of the 5-10 that I play is a bit off. Remember, I am not usually playing late at night US time. I am playing lunchtime and afternoon US time. These are closer to the rocks you might see in the downtown Vegas games during the week.
I'm definitely not playing too loose preflop. It's possible that I am playing too tight, chucking some hands that I have got used to throwing at 15-30 which, previously, I might have put in for a raise. It's possible that the different blind structure is also having an effect. basically, you win proportionally less in 5-10 if you force a fold from the SB pre-flop and a fold from the one remaining player post-flop, than you do in 15-30 if you do the same, because the SB has contributed significantly less as a percentage of the pot.
I just won back $135 at 15-30 in half an hour this morning, but I am not playing well. I played one A7 off from the Big Blind about as badly as I could, literally playing every street wrong. Why do I do this sometimes? I look back on the hand and just say "what was I doing?".
It went like this. Passed round to the button. Raised. I flat call. (Wrong. I should reraise).
Flop comes Kxx. I check. Wrong. I should bet. He bets. I call. Wrong. I should check-raise.
Turn comes a blank. I check (given my previous plays, this is just about correct). He checks.
River is a blank. I bet. Wrong. I should check. This is the worst play of the entire hand (which is saying something). He calls with 98, having paired up on the river. I could have won that hand at least twice (on flop if I bet, or on turn if i check-raise the flop and bet out on the turn) and instead threw the money away. Dreadful. Dreadful. And I KNOW AT THE TIME THAT I AM DOING IT! That's the most amazing thing.
I then compounded this dreadful session where I deserved to lose but didn't by failing to bet an overpair twice on the river because the final board was "a bit scary". Both times I would have been called by top pair reasonable kicker. So that's another $60 I chucked into the sewer.
I reckon that's good going in three quarters of an hour, throwing away six big bets. That I ended up in profit is irrelevant. Kill me now.