Why people who miss trains run out of milk

[peterbirks]

I never run out of things in the bathroom. That's because, as soon as I am down to my last "one" of anything (shaving foam, talc, shampoo, conditioner, etc) I buy a back-up straight away. The same applies in the kitchen. As Peter Kay observed, you never run out of salt, but people are always running out of mustard, honey, sugar, olive oil and, of course, milk. Now, not running out of stuff isn't that complicated. It isn't difficult to estimate how quickly you run through stuff, add in a fairly large comfort cushion for standard deviation, and then keep that much in reserve. And no-one is going to go bankrupt from throwing away a half-pint of milk that happened to go off.

But people still run out of milk. And why is this? Because these people don't believe in comfort zones. These are the people you see stranded on motorways because they have run out of petrol, and these are the people who miss trains. I don't think that I have ever missed a train. Occasionally I have arrived at a station so early that I have been in time for the previous train, but I have never, ever, cut things so fine that I have had to rush for a train.

It's an attitude thing, I think, a kind of laid-back, non-control-freakery, method of looking at life which I clearly do not have. If the petrol gauge gets below a half, then I start looking for petrol stations. If it might, just might, take me an hour at worst to get to a place, then I will leave with an hour and a quarter to spare. And if the milk carton gets to three-quarters empty, I'm off to Tesco's.

Comments

[(Anonymous)]

Hi Peter,

Nice post. Some people may wonder what it has to do with poker or business, your two primary interests you blog about but it does very much to both. In poker it has to do with prudently managing a bankroll. In business it has to do with leaving yourself reserves to weather bad times and mistakes and unforseen events. With regards to poker, lots of players like to take shots at higher limits than they normally play, myself included, when they are running good. But having budgeted a certain amount for that shot and lost, they then try to keep buying in at that higher limit to chase that shot. Or when running bad, instead of dropping down and fine-tuning their game, they just stay where they are and blow most of their roll, not realizing that even if there aren't leaks they need to fix, they still should not have jeapordized their roll. I know that you understand this very well, but the majority of players don't. Protecting your roll is everything unless it can easily be replenished from outside income.

And regarding the mundane day-to-day things you posted about, there is a certain type of person that is always "running out" or having disasters happen in their lives. We all have friends and family like this. They might not repeat the exact same disaster, but "it's always something". Lots of them pride themselves on being carefree and not being "anal" or sweating the small stuff. They think the prudent are kill-joys who don't enjoy life. But they are the ones who can't fully enjoy life while constantly running the rapids of day-to-day calamities, that but for a little foresight and planning, could have been avoided. Thus they are constantly making bad decisions and get the appropriate results in the long term. Just like poker.

BluffTHIS!

Missing trains etc

[(Anonymous)]

Hi Pete,

I think there are two types here, one the sort of person who doesn't care about time, who always arrives late and doesn't worry about it, or about the problems this causes for others. Probably unfair comment, but all the people I've known like this, including two seriously annoying examples, are/were women. The other type are the exact opposite, very aware of time, and always desperately trying to cut things as fine as possible, so as "not to waste time hanging about". Worst offender in my experience, me. I've run out of petrol a couple of times in my life, because I tried to cut things too fine. I've never yet missed a flight for the same reason, but it's been close. It drives the rest of my family mad, and I have tried to change, but it's still a basic flaw in my makeup, and suppose always will be.

John

Re: Missing trains etc

[peterbirks.livejournal.com]

But John, do you run out of milk?

The "cutting it fine" school must be incorrigible optimists, I think. Whereas I always assume that everything will go wrong when planning something, those who leave it late just assume that things will be okay. Is this a lack of imagination? Or is it based on the valid empirical observations that, usually, things do run smoothly? So, if it normally takes an hour to get to Gatwick, then leave an hour allocated.

The problem with this method is the risk/reward ratio. Your reward if things run smoothly is that you have saved fifteen minutes hanging around, whereas your penalty could be eight hours hanging around until the next flight. I am always thinking about risk/reward ratios, and I have always felt that those who habitually cut it fine, do not.

Two women at work were going to Amsterdam for the weekend, so they got to Liverpool St with plenty of time to spare. Then they decided that the restaurant at Liverpool Street was nicer than the one at Stansted (reward) so had a meal there. Next thing they know, the station is being closed down and two people are on the verge of being shot eight times in the head. No trains leaving, prospect of missed flight apporaches (risk). Eventually they forked out a hundred quid between three people to get a cab there. Expensive meal.

Was this worthwhile in terms of risk/reward ratio? Depends on the likelihood of something such as this happening, I guess. Personally, I would definitely have got on the ealier train and suffered the poorer meal (except, of course, that I never fly from Stansted, and even if I did, I would use the executive waiting lounges.... :-) )

[(Anonymous)]

Well I was always the guy just making it on to the train. When I attended a course a few years after I left uni, I was (unavoidably) late, a girl recognised by name and said, 'I used to know a guy by that name at uni, he was always late for lectures' sure enough, she wasn't disappointed; I've changed somewhat now, though.

The 'half a tank - got to refill policy' is to be honest a bit wreckless with respect to ££ and the environment: you are permanently lugging around at least a 1/4 of a tank in excess of what you need and for what? A slight increase in the chance of being caught with your pants dowm, or perish the thought, another fuel crisis? You also have to piss away more time on life's mundane tasks.

As a rule I wouldn't want to find poker-players with these sorts of tendencies, because it spells out two words loud and clear: risk-averse. Its ok to a degree w.r.t. bankroll, but once it starts transmitting to the playing of hands then it becomes a very costly trait. Of course it's well documented that there are circumstanees where these tendencies pay-off. Best place, imo, is to err on the side of risk-taking - but only just beyond risk-neutral.

chaos

[(Anonymous)]

'As a rule I wouldn't want to find poker-players with these sorts of tendencies' a touch amiguous but you know what I mean

[(Anonymous)]

That reminds me. I've run out of salt. Am I normal?

DY

[(Anonymous)]

You use talc?!?

Dom

[(Anonymous)]

If only normality could be gauged from such a criteria. It would dispel the doubters once and for all, huh.

[(Anonymous)]

- chaos

Comfort Zones

[(Anonymous)]

I think you've just exhibited one of the signs of ageing. You probably never ran out of milk when you were young and carefree, but never felt the need to publish the fact. In fact, you may even have kept it secret; not running out of milk might have been considered almost shameful. I bet the boys in 'Men Behaving Badly' always ran out of milk.